Eurasia Group Warns of Persistent Risks to Strait of Hormuz Cease-Fire

Political risk analysts estimate a 35% probability that the current cease-fire in the Strait of Hormuz could collapse. The unpredictable nature of the involved parties continues to pose a threat to global energy transit.

• 65% probability that the current cease-fire will hold
• 35% risk of collapse identified as a 'clear and present' threat
• Instability driven by unpredictable party positioning
• High potential for oil price volatility if negotiations fail
• Critical focus on the world's primary energy chokepoint