AA vs AG

Alcoa Corporation exhibits strong financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust operational and balance sheet strength. Despite the absence of an Altman Z-Score, the company shows solid profitability metrics, including a 19.16% ROE and improving earnings growth, while trading below its growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46. The stock is currently priced at $62.21, above the conservative Graham Number of $49.75, suggesting valuation is supported by strong fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds in aluminum. Analysts concur with a 'buy' recommendation, and recent price momentum is strongly positive, although technical trend sentiment remains weak.

The company exhibits weak financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal stability, and lacks an Altman Z-Score, raising concerns about financial distress risk. Despite strong recent price performance and robust revenue growth (95.10% YoY), the stock appears significantly overvalued with a P/E of 169.60 versus sector average of 26.34 and a Graham Number of just $4.23, far below the current price of $25.44. Earnings quality is poor, with a track record of missing estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of -24.17%. While balance sheet metrics like low debt/equity (0.08) and strong liquidity (current ratio 3.38) are positives, weak ROE (4.21%) and inconsistent profitability undermine long-term value creation.