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AA vs CF

AA
Alcoa Corporation
BULLISH
Price
$62.21
Market Cap
$16.11B
Sector
Basic Materials
AI Confidence
85%
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Price
$120.93
Market Cap
$18.58B
Sector
Basic Materials
AI Confidence
80%

Valuation

P/E Ratio
AA
13.86
CF
13.48
Forward P/E
AA
11.76
CF
13.25
P/B Ratio
AA
2.54
CF
3.84
P/S Ratio
AA
1.25
CF
2.62
EV/EBITDA
AA
8.58
CF
7.15

Profitability

Gross Margin
AA
18.89%
CF
38.45%
Operating Margin
AA
2.77%
CF
35.31%
Profit Margin
AA
8.91%
CF
20.54%
ROE
AA
19.16%
CF
23.4%
ROA
AA
5.83%
CF
10.62%

Growth

Revenue Growth
AA
3.1%
CF
22.8%
Earnings Growth
AA
131.6%
CF
37.1%

Financial Health

Debt/Equity
AA
0.4
CF
0.47
Current Ratio
AA
1.56
CF
3.37
Quick Ratio
AA
0.79
CF
2.79

Dividends

Dividend Yield
AA
0.63%
CF
1.65%
Payout Ratio
AA
8.79%
CF
22.3%

AI Verdict

AA BULLISH

Alcoa Corporation exhibits strong financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust operational and balance sheet strength. Despite the absence of an Altman Z-Score, the company shows solid profitability metrics, including a 19.16% ROE and improving earnings growth, while trading below its growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46. The stock is currently priced at $62.21, above the conservative Graham Number of $49.75, suggesting valuation is supported by strong fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds in aluminum. Analysts concur with a 'buy' recommendation, and recent price momentum is strongly positive, although technical trend sentiment remains weak.

Strengths
Exceptionally high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling strong financial health and operational efficiency
Impressive year-over-year earnings growth of 131.6% and Q/Q EPS surge of +6400%, reflecting strong recovery and leverage to aluminum pricing
Attractive return metrics: 19.16% ROE and 5.83% ROA, well above sector averages
Risks
Absence of Altman Z-Score limits ability to assess bankruptcy risk with full confidence
Weak technical trend score of 10/100 suggests near-term bearish momentum despite strong fundamentals
Operating margin of 2.77% remains thin, exposing profitability to commodity price volatility
CF NEUTRAL

CF Industries presents a dichotomy between strong fundamental profitability and bearish sentiment indicators. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but non-optimal financial health, while the stock trades significantly above its Graham Number ($79.74) but well below its growth-based Intrinsic Value ($264.62). While the company boasts an impressive ROE of 23.40% and a very healthy current ratio of 3.37, these strengths are offset by aggressive insider selling and a high PEG ratio of 5.67, suggesting that current growth may be overpriced.

Strengths
Strong profitability with an ROE of 23.40% and Operating Margin of 35.31%
Excellent liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 3.37
Conservative leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.47, well below the sector average of 1.03
Risks
Significant insider selling totaling $33.49M with zero buy transactions in 6 months
High PEG ratio (5.67) indicating potential overvaluation relative to earnings growth
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and recent 1-month price decline

Compare Another Pair

AA vs CF: Head-to-Head Comparison

This page compares Alcoa Corporation (AA) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) across key fundamental metrics including valuation ratios, profitability margins, growth rates, financial health indicators, and dividend metrics. Each metric highlights the better-performing stock so you can quickly identify relative strengths and weaknesses.

Our AI engine independently analyzes each company's financials, competitive position, and market conditions to produce a verdict (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) along with key strengths and risks. Use this comparison alongside your own research to make informed investment decisions.

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