CF

NEUTRAL

$120.93 Live

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE

Target $118.05 (-2.4%)

$75.42 52W Range $141.96

CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL

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CF Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs

Current Price Live

$120.93

Analyst Target

$118.05

-2.4% Downside

52W High

$141.96

52W Low

$75.42

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 25, 2026

Market cap

$18.58B

P/E

13.48

ROE

23.4%

Profit margin

20.5%

Debt/Equity

0.47

Dividend yield

1.65%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

80%

CF Industries presents a dichotomy between strong fundamental profitability and bearish sentiment indicators. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but non-optimal financial health, while the stock trades significantly above its Graham Number ($79.74) but well below its growth-based Intrinsic Value ($264.62). While the company boasts an impressive ROE of 23.40% and a very healthy current ratio of 3.37, these strengths are offset by aggressive insider selling and a high PEG ratio of 5.67, suggesting that current growth may be overpriced.

Key Strengths

Strong profitability with an ROE of 23.40% and Operating Margin of 35.31%

Excellent liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 3.37

Conservative leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.47, well below the sector average of 1.03

Attractive P/E ratio (13.48) compared to the Basic Materials sector average (40.50)

Robust 1-year price appreciation of 60.1%

Key Risks

Significant insider selling totaling $33.49M with zero buy transactions in 6 months

High PEG ratio (5.67) indicating potential overvaluation relative to earnings growth

Bearish technical trend (0/100) and recent 1-month price decline

Inconsistent recent earnings performance, beating estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters

Low dividend yield (1.65%) relative to the company's cash-generating capacity

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$138.5

+14.5% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Strong

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

Fundamental strength is currently masked by poor sentiment and valuation misalignment.

Key drivers: High ROE, Low Debt/Equity, Bearish Insider Activity, High PEG Ratio

Confidence

85%

Value

55/100

P/E 13.48, PEG 5.67, Graham $79.74

Positives

Low P/E relative to sector

Watchpoints

Price is 51% above Graham Number
PEG ratio suggests growth is expensive

Future

70/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives

Strong YoY Earnings Growth (37.10%)
Positive Q/Q Revenue growth

Watchpoints

Recent earnings beat rate is low (25%)

Past

85/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives

Strong 5Y (+177.8%) and 1Y (+60.1%) returns

Watchpoints

High volatility in quarterly surprises

Health

65/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives

Low Debt/Equity (0.47)
High Current Ratio (3.37)

Watchpoints

Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9

Dividend

45/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives

Very low payout ratio (22.30%) indicating high safety

Watchpoints

Low yield (1.65%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$120.93

Analyst Target

$118.05

Upside/Downside

-2.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CF and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Primary	+177.8%	+79.4%	+60.1%	+41.4%	-5.6%	+7.3%
AGI Alamos Gold Inc. Peer	+472.0%	+288.1%	+116.2%	+67.8%	+7.6%	+11.6%
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Peer	+56.6%	+63.1%	+50.5%	+42.5%	-6.9%	-0.3%
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. Peer	+97.8%	+427.6%	+230.7%	+3.5%	+8.2%	-5.2%
AA Alcoa Corporation Peer	+236.8%	+22.0%	+68.7%	+103.0%	+16.0%	+3.6%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Primary

+177.8%

+79.4%

+60.1%

+41.4%

-5.6%

+7.3%

AGI

Alamos Gold Inc.

Peer

+472.0%

+288.1%

+116.2%

+67.8%

+7.6%

+11.6%

DuPont de Nemours, Inc.

Peer

+56.6%

+63.1%

+50.5%

+42.5%

-6.9%

-0.3%

CDE

Coeur Mining, Inc.

Peer

+97.8%

+427.6%

+230.7%

+3.5%

+8.2%

-5.2%

Alcoa Corporation

Peer

+236.8%

+22.0%

+68.7%

+103.0%

+16.0%

+3.6%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

13.48

13.25

5.67

3.84

2.62

3.27

7.15

$18.58B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 20.54%

Operating Margin 35.31%

Gross Margin 38.45%

ROE 23.4%

ROA 10.62%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +22.8%

Earnings Growth +37.1%

Q/Q Revenue Growth +22.83%

Q/Q Earnings Growth +23.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

0.47

Low debt

Current Ratio

3.37

Strong

Quick Ratio

2.79

Excellent

Cash/Share

$12.9

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue

$1.9B

Gross Margin

40.9%

Op. Margin

36.4%

Net Margin

21.6%

Total Assets

$14.1B

Liabilities

$6.3B

Equity

$4.8B

Debt/Equity

1.30x

Operating CF

$0.5B

CapEx

$-0.2B

Free Cash Flow

$0.3B

FCF Yield

58%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06

$N/A

2026-02-18

$3.06

+23.9% surprise

2025-11-05

$2.17

-0.2% surprise

2025-08-06

$2.39

-3.4% surprise

Basic Materials Sector Comparison

Comparing CF against 109 companies in the Basic Materials sector (4 bullish, 41 neutral, 64 bearish)

P/E Ratio

13.48

This Stock

37.99

Sector Avg

-64.5% (Discount)

Return on Equity (ROE)

23.4%

This Stock

-10.47%

Sector Avg

-323.6% (Below Avg)

Profit Margin

20.54%

This Stock

-7.78%

Sector Avg

-363.9% (Weaker)

Debt to Equity

0.47

This Stock

1.02

Sector Avg

-54.0% (Less Debt)

Revenue Growth

22.8%

This Stock

38.21%

Sector Avg

-40.3% (Slower)

Current Ratio

3.37

This Stock

5.92

Sector Avg

-43.2% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$18.58B	13.48	23.4%	20.5%	$120.93
AGI Alamos Gold Inc.	NEUTRAL	$18.23B	32.89	14.3%	33.5%	$43.42	Compare
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc.	BEARISH	$19.36B	220.05	0.5%	-11.4%	$46.21	Compare
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$19.99B	20.33	26.4%	28.3%	$19.31	Compare
AA Alcoa Corporation	BULLISH	$16.11B	13.86	19.2%	8.9%	$62.21	Compare

CF CF Industries...

NEUTRAL

Mkt Cap

$18.6B

P/E

13.5

ROE

23.4%

Price

$120.93

Compare with CF

DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc.

Compare with CF

CDE Coeur Mining, Inc.

Compare with CF

Compare with CF

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date	Insider	Position	Transaction	Shares	Value
2026-03-17	MAYER ERIK M.	Officer	Sale	1,500	$187,035
2026-03-17	HOKER RICHARD A.	Officer	Sale	3,499	$438,705
2026-03-17	FROST BERT A	Officer	Sale	6,000	$756,000
2026-03-17	WILL W ANTHONY	Director	Gift	17,654	-
2026-03-13	WILL W ANTHONY	Director	Sale	81,651	$10,333,625
2026-03-13	WILL W ANTHONY	Director	Stock Award	96,858	-
2026-03-12	MENZEL SUSAN L	Officer	Sale	18,041	$2,454,713
2026-03-12	FROST BERT A	Officer	Sale	6,250	$854,316
2026-03-09	FROST BERT A	Officer	Sale	15,534	$1,833,194
2026-03-06	MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK	General Counsel	Sale	3,666	$427,089
2026-03-06	MAYER ERIK M.	Officer	Sale	2,200	$255,749
2026-03-05	ARZBAECHER ROBERT C	Director	Gift	11,600	-
2026-03-05	MALIK ASHRAF KHAN	Officer	Sale	2,439	$270,729
2026-03-05	DEMPSEY LINDA M	Officer	Sale	2,000	$213,000
2026-03-05	MENZEL SUSAN L	Officer	Sale	7,200	$799,200

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

Sell

2026-03-17

1,500 shares · $187,035

HOKER RICHARD A.

Officer

Sell

2026-03-17

3,499 shares · $438,705

FROST BERT A

Officer

Sell

2026-03-17

6,000 shares · $756,000

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

Gift

2026-03-17

17,654 shares

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

Sell

2026-03-13

81,651 shares · $10,333,625

WILL W ANTHONY

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-13

96,858 shares

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

Sell

2026-03-12

18,041 shares · $2,454,713

FROST BERT A

Officer

Sell

2026-03-12

6,250 shares · $854,316

FROST BERT A

Officer

Sell

2026-03-09

15,534 shares · $1,833,194

MCGRANE MICHAEL PATRICK

General Counsel

Sell

2026-03-06

3,666 shares · $427,089

MAYER ERIK M.

Officer

Sell

2026-03-06

2,200 shares · $255,749

ARZBAECHER ROBERT C

Director

Gift

2026-03-05

11,600 shares

MALIK ASHRAF KHAN

Officer

Sell

2026-03-05

2,439 shares · $270,729

DEMPSEY LINDA M

Officer

Sell

2026-03-05

2,000 shares · $213,000

MENZEL SUSAN L

Officer

Sell

2026-03-05

7,200 shares · $799,200

Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A

FORM-DEF 14A

2026-03-17

CF filed a definitive proxy statement on March 17, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-03-16

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. filed an 8-K on March 16, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results or a dividend declaration.

10-K

2026-02-25

CF filed its annual 10-K on February 25, 2026, including standard disclosures on business operations, risk factors, and management's discussion and analysis. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk descriptions.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-02-18

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. filed an 8-K likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K

2026-02-18

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. likely reported its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K/A

FORM 8-K/A

2026-01-13

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. filed an amendment to a previously submitted current report on January 13, 2026.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-01-09

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-01-07

8-K/A

FORM 8-K/A

2025-12-19

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. filed an amendment to a previously submitted Form 8-K.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-11-26

10-Q

2025-11-06

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-11-05

8-K

2025-11-05

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-09-09

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-09-08

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

HOLD

19 analysts

Scotiabank

2026-04-20

Maintains

Sector Perform Sector Perform

Barclays

2026-04-17

Maintains

Overweight Overweight

Goldman Sachs

2026-04-14

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

Morgan Stanley

2026-04-08

Maintains

Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Mizuho

2026-03-31

Maintains

Underperform Underperform

UBS

2026-03-26

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

B of A Securities

2026-03-18

Maintains

Underperform Underperform

BMO Capital

2026-03-18

Maintains

Outperform Outperform

Mizuho

2026-03-18

down

Neutral Underperform

CIBC

2026-03-17

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning CF from our newsroom.

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CF

CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Basic Materials Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Recent Insider Trading

SEC Filings

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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