AGI Alamos Gold Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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AGI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Basic Materials
Gold
Current Price
Live
$43.42
Analyst Target
$50.25
+15.7%
Upside
52W High
$43.95
52W Low
$19.74
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$18.23B
P/E
32.89
ROE
14.3%
Profit margin
33.5%
Debt/Equity
0.07
Dividend yield
0.24%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
75%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability metrics and robust earnings growth, elevated valuation multiples and inconsistent quarterly earnings surprises weigh on sustainability. The stock trades significantly above the Graham Number of $16.89 and near the intrinsic value of $38.94, suggesting limited margin of safety. Analysts maintain a strong_buy consensus, but technical trend and insider sentiment are weak, indicating caution despite favorable sector-relative fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Exceptional operating margin of 80.68%, reflecting strong cost control and pricing power in gold production
Very low debt/equity ratio of 0.07, indicating conservative capital structure and low financial risk
Impressive year-over-year earnings growth of 225.00% and revenue growth of 28.10%, outpacing sector averages
High return on equity (14.27%) and return on assets (8.28%), signaling efficient use of capital
Analyst recommendation is strong_buy with a target price of $50.25, implying 15.7% upside
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests weak financial health, particularly concerning asset utilization and leverage trends
Current price of $43.42 exceeds both Graham Number ($16.89) and intrinsic value ($38.94), offering limited margin of safety
Technical trend score of 10/100 indicates strong bearish momentum near 52-week high, raising near-term reversal risk
High P/E of 32.89 and Price/Sales of 11.33 suggest overvaluation relative to earnings and revenue, especially if growth slows
Inconsistent earnings surprises: average surprise of -20.18% over last four quarters, with recent miss of -78.6%
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$38.94
-10.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
45
78
60
58
35
AI Verdict
Cautiously optimistic with structural strengths offset by valuation and execution risks
Key drivers: High profitability and growth metrics, Low leverage and strong balance sheet, Elevated valuation and weak technicals, Inconsistent earnings delivery, Bullish analyst outlook
Confidence
78%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 16.75 is more reasonable than current P/E of 32.89
- Below sector average P/E of 37.36
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 32.89 is high for a commodity producer
- Price/Sales of 11.33 is extremely elevated
- Trades above intrinsic value and far above Graham Number
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- YoY earnings growth of 225.00% and revenue growth of 28.10%
- Q/Q earnings growth of 227.00%
- Analyst target implies continued growth
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth was -2.6%, signaling potential slowdown
- PEG ratio unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +472.0% shows strong long-term performance
- History of positive earnings surprises in earlier quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses: 2 beats in last 4 quarters
- Average surprise of -20.18% in last 4 quarters
Health
58/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.72 indicates adequate liquidity
- Debt/equity of 0.07 shows minimal leverage risk
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.92 is below 1.0, suggesting potential short-term liquidity pressure
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk assessment
Dividend
35/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 7.81% provides sustainability and room for future increases
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield of 0.24% is negligible for income investors
- Dividend strength score of 25/100 indicates weak income profile
- No 5-year average yield data, suggesting inconsistent history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$43.42
Analyst Target
$50.25
Upside/Downside
+15.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc.
Primary
|
+472.0% | +288.1% | +116.2% | +67.8% | +7.6% | +11.6% |
|
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
Peer
|
+33.5% | +46.4% | +36.5% | +37.0% | +5.6% | -2.2% |
|
DOW
Dow Inc.
Peer
|
-37.1% | -42.6% | -27.5% | +0.1% | +19.5% | +4.7% |
|
AA
Alcoa Corporation
Peer
|
+236.8% | +22.0% | +68.7% | +103.0% | +16.0% | +3.6% |
|
ALB
Albemarle Corporation
Peer
|
+13.7% | -25.1% | +115.4% | +128.2% | +27.6% | +16.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
32.89
Forward P/E
16.75
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.52
P/S Ratio
11.33
EV/Revenue
11.21
EV/EBITDA
18.88
Market Cap
$18.23B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
33.46%
Operating Margin
80.68%
Gross Margin
64.18%
ROE
14.27%
ROA
8.28%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+28.1%
Earnings Growth
+225.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+227.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.07
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.72
Good
Quick Ratio
0.92
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.21
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-18
$N/A
2025-10-28
$0.37
+2.9% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.38
+15.2% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.04
-78.6% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing AGI against 41 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(1 bullish, 20 neutral, 20 bearish)
P/E Ratio
32.89
This Stock
vs
30.44
Sector Avg
+8.1%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
14.27%
This Stock
vs
-0.24%
Sector Avg
-6034.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
33.46%
This Stock
vs
-2.71%
Sector Avg
-1336.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.07
This Stock
vs
0.61
Sector Avg
-88.8%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
28.1%
This Stock
vs
14.52%
Sector Avg
+93.5%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.72
This Stock
vs
2.29
Sector Avg
-25.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $18.23B | 32.89 | 14.3% | 33.5% | $43.42 | |
|
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $17.96B | 24.77 | 3.2% | -6.0% | $42.86 | |
|
DOW
Dow Inc.
|
BEARISH | $19.6B | - | -5.3% | -2.8% | $27.57 | |
|
AA
Alcoa Corporation
|
BULLISH | $16.11B | 13.86 | 19.2% | 8.9% | $62.21 | |
|
ALB
Albemarle Corporation
|
BEARISH | $22.3B | - | 0.2% | -0.4% | $189.51 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
4 analysts
Scotiabank
2025-10-23
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
B of A Securities
2025-10-16
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.