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COP vs HPK

COP
ConocoPhillips
BEARISH
Price
$128.25
Market Cap
$156.32B
Sector
Energy
AI Confidence
85%
HPK
HighPeak Energy, Inc.
BEARISH
Price
$6.34
Market Cap
$801.1M
Sector
Energy
AI Confidence
85%

Valuation

P/E Ratio
COP
20.2
HPK
48.77
Forward P/E
COP
15.08
HPK
-17.61
P/B Ratio
COP
2.44
HPK
0.5
P/S Ratio
COP
2.59
HPK
0.93
EV/EBITDA
COP
7.21
HPK
3.18

Profitability

Gross Margin
COP
46.18%
HPK
71.61%
Operating Margin
COP
16.3%
HPK
-7.59%
Profit Margin
COP
13.25%
HPK
2.2%
ROE
COP
12.36%
HPK
1.19%
ROA
COP
6.42%
HPK
3.04%

Growth

Revenue Growth
COP
-6.8%
HPK
-23.3%
Earnings Growth
COP
-39.0%
HPK
--

Financial Health

Debt/Equity
COP
0.38
HPK
0.75
Current Ratio
COP
1.3
HPK
1.13
Quick Ratio
COP
1.07
HPK
0.94

Dividends

Dividend Yield
COP
2.62%
HPK
2.74%
Payout Ratio
COP
50.08%
HPK
123.08%

AI Verdict

COP BEARISH

ConocoPhillips presents a stark divergence between its strong balance sheet and its current market valuation. With a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable) and a Graham Number of $86.72, the current price of $128.25 represents a significant premium over defensive fair value and a massive premium over the growth-based intrinsic value of $44.45. This overvaluation is compounded by severe earnings contraction (-39% YoY) and a bearish insider signal, with the CEO selling substantial holdings. While the company remains a sector leader with low debt, the combination of negative growth and technical weakness suggests limited upside at current levels.

Strengths
Exceptionally low Debt/Equity (0.38) compared to sector average (1.34)
Strong profitability margins (13.25% Profit Margin) exceeding sector peers
Diverse, low-cost global supply portfolio across 14 countries
Risks
Severe earnings decline (-39% YoY) and revenue contraction (-6.8% YoY)
High sensitivity to volatile commodity prices due to unhedged strategy
Significant overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic value models
HPK BEARISH

HPK presents as a classic value trap with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable) that masks severe fundamental deterioration. While the current price ($6.34) sits near the Graham Number ($6.1), the growth-based intrinsic value is a dismal $0.91, reflecting a collapse in earnings power. The company is currently paying out 123% of its earnings as dividends, which is fundamentally unsustainable. With revenue declining by 23.3% YoY and a technical trend score of 0/100, the stock is in a clear bearish regime.

Strengths
Low Price-to-Book ratio (0.50) suggesting assets are undervalued
Strong Gross Margin (71.61%) indicating efficient direct production
Manageable Debt/Equity ratio (0.75) compared to sector average (1.41)
Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (123.08%)
Severe revenue contraction (-23.30% YoY)
Negative operating margins (-7.59%) indicating inability to cover overhead

Compare Another Pair

COP vs HPK: Head-to-Head Comparison

This page compares ConocoPhillips (COP) and HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) across key fundamental metrics including valuation ratios, profitability margins, growth rates, financial health indicators, and dividend metrics. Each metric highlights the better-performing stock so you can quickly identify relative strengths and weaknesses.

Our AI engine independently analyzes each company's financials, competitive position, and market conditions to produce a verdict (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) along with key strengths and risks. Use this comparison alongside your own research to make informed investment decisions.

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