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HPK

BEARISH
$6.34 Live
HighPeak Energy, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $7.88 (+24.2%)
$3.85 52W Range $12.0

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 11, 2026
Market cap
$801.11M
P/E
48.77
ROE
1.2%
Profit margin
2.2%
Debt/Equity
0.75
Dividend yield
2.74%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
HPK presents as a classic value trap with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable) that masks severe fundamental deterioration. While the current price ($6.34) sits near the Graham Number ($6.1), the growth-based intrinsic value is a dismal $0.91, reflecting a collapse in earnings power. The company is currently paying out 123% of its earnings as dividends, which is fundamentally unsustainable. With revenue declining by 23.3% YoY and a technical trend score of 0/100, the stock is in a clear bearish regime.

Key Strengths

Low Price-to-Book ratio (0.50) suggesting assets are undervalued
Strong Gross Margin (71.61%) indicating efficient direct production
Manageable Debt/Equity ratio (0.75) compared to sector average (1.41)
Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.93)
Current ratio above 1.0 (1.13) providing minimal short-term liquidity

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (123.08%)
Severe revenue contraction (-23.30% YoY)
Negative operating margins (-7.59%) indicating inability to cover overhead
Catastrophic YoY EPS growth decline (-211.1%)
Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (1/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$4.25
-33.0% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
26
Weak
Value
45
Future
15
Past
20
Health
40
Dividend
10
AI Verdict
High Risk / Value Trap
Key drivers: Negative forward earnings, Unsustainable dividend, Revenue decay, Bearish technicals
Confidence
90%
Value
45/100

Trades at a discount to book value but a massive premium to growth-adjusted intrinsic value.

Positives
  • P/B of 0.50
  • Price near Graham Number
Watchpoints
  • High trailing P/E (48.77)
  • Intrinsic value far below market price
Future
15/100

Revenue growth is -23.3% and earnings are trending toward losses.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Negative Forward P/E
  • Declining YoY and Q/Q revenue
Past
20/100

Long-term price performance is severely negative.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • 3-year return of -72.1%
  • Consistent earnings misses
Health
40/100

Balance sheet is acceptable, but operational health is failing.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity lower than peer average
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only marginally stable
  • Negative operating margin
Dividend
10/100

Dividend is being funded by capital or debt rather than earnings.

Positives
  • Yield of 2.74%
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 123.08% is a critical red flag

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$6.34
Analyst Target
$7.88
Upside/Downside
+24.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HPK and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-10
HPK
HighPeak Energy, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-15.8%
3Y
-72.1%
1Y
-24.0%
6M
-3.5%
1M
+8.4%
1W
-8.1%
HNR
Hallador Energy Company
Peer
5Y
+660.0%
3Y
+61.9%
1Y
+21.6%
6M
-25.0%
1M
-19.7%
1W
-4.0%
CLN
Clean Energy Fuels Corp.
Peer
5Y
-80.6%
3Y
-43.2%
1Y
+77.6%
6M
-4.2%
1M
+8.6%
1W
+2.4%
ACD
ProFrac Holding Corp.
Peer
5Y
-64.9%
3Y
-60.3%
1Y
-11.8%
6M
+69.3%
1M
+14.0%
1W
+17.6%
EU
enCore Energy Corp.
Peer
5Y
-40.5%
3Y
-11.2%
1Y
+54.2%
6M
-47.5%
1M
-7.1%
1W
-4.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
48.77
Forward P/E
-17.61
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.5
P/S Ratio
0.93
EV/Revenue
2.12
EV/EBITDA
3.18
Market Cap
$801.11M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 2.2%
Operating Margin -7.59%
Gross Margin 71.61%
ROE 1.19%
ROA 3.04%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -23.3%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth -7.73%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.75
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.13
Good
Quick Ratio
0.94
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.28

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Gross Margin
0.5%
Op. Margin
-7.5%
Net Margin
-11.6%
Total Assets
$3.2B
Liabilities
$1.6B
Equity
$1.6B
Debt/Equity
1.02x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-2%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-11
$N/A
2026-03-11
$-0.2
-188.1% surprise
2025-11-05
$-0.15
-266.7% surprise
2025-08-11
$0.19
+100.0% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing HPK against 37 companies in the Energy sector (0 bullish, 18 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
48.77
This Stock
vs
32.89
Sector Avg
+48.3% (Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
1.19%
This Stock
vs
8.76%
Sector Avg
-86.5% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
2.2%
This Stock
vs
0.97%
Sector Avg
+127.2% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.75
This Stock
vs
1.4
Sector Avg
-46.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-23.3%
This Stock
vs
7.66%
Sector Avg
-404.1% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.13
This Stock
vs
1.46
Sector Avg
-22.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

THOLEN STEVEN W
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
50,000 shares
WOODARD RODNEY L
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
50,000 shares
MUNDY CHRIS
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
50,000 shares
HOLLIS MICHAEL L
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
550,000 shares
FORBES KEITH E
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
25,000 shares
SILVER DANIEL M.
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2026-01-09
50,000 shares
HIGHTOWER WILLIAM RYAN
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-09
50,000 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HPK from our newsroom.

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