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COP vs MGY

COP
ConocoPhillips
BEARISH
Price
$128.25
Market Cap
$156.32B
Sector
Energy
AI Confidence
85%
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
NEUTRAL
Price
$30.24
Market Cap
$5.78B
Sector
Energy
AI Confidence
85%

Valuation

P/E Ratio
COP
20.2
MGY
17.48
Forward P/E
COP
15.08
MGY
11.56
P/B Ratio
COP
2.44
MGY
2.83
P/S Ratio
COP
2.59
MGY
4.41
EV/EBITDA
COP
7.21
MGY
6.43

Profitability

Gross Margin
COP
46.18%
MGY
80.66%
Operating Margin
COP
16.3%
MGY
29.62%
Profit Margin
COP
13.25%
MGY
24.79%
ROE
COP
12.36%
MGY
17.01%
ROA
COP
6.42%
MGY
9.59%

Growth

Revenue Growth
COP
-6.8%
MGY
-2.8%
Earnings Growth
COP
-39.0%
MGY
-17.0%

Financial Health

Debt/Equity
COP
0.38
MGY
0.21
Current Ratio
COP
1.3
MGY
1.54
Quick Ratio
COP
1.07
MGY
1.53

Dividends

Dividend Yield
COP
2.62%
MGY
2.03%
Payout Ratio
COP
50.08%
MGY
34.68%

AI Verdict

COP BEARISH

ConocoPhillips presents a stark divergence between its strong balance sheet and its current market valuation. With a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable) and a Graham Number of $86.72, the current price of $128.25 represents a significant premium over defensive fair value and a massive premium over the growth-based intrinsic value of $44.45. This overvaluation is compounded by severe earnings contraction (-39% YoY) and a bearish insider signal, with the CEO selling substantial holdings. While the company remains a sector leader with low debt, the combination of negative growth and technical weakness suggests limited upside at current levels.

Strengths
Exceptionally low Debt/Equity (0.38) compared to sector average (1.34)
Strong profitability margins (13.25% Profit Margin) exceeding sector peers
Diverse, low-cost global supply portfolio across 14 countries
Risks
Severe earnings decline (-39% YoY) and revenue contraction (-6.8% YoY)
High sensitivity to volatile commodity prices due to unhedged strategy
Significant overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic value models
MGY NEUTRAL

MGY exhibits a stable financial foundation with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an exceptionally clean balance sheet (Debt/Equity 0.21). However, the stock is trading at a significant premium to its Graham Number ($20.41) and Intrinsic Value ($12.11), suggesting overvaluation. While profitability margins and ROE far exceed sector averages, the company is currently facing negative revenue and earnings growth. The divergence between bullish analyst targets and bearish insider selling creates a conflicted outlook.

Strengths
Superior profitability with a 24.79% profit margin and 17.01% ROE
Very low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.21) compared to sector average (1.34)
Strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.54
Risks
Significant overvaluation relative to deterministic fair value models
Negative YoY earnings growth (-17.00%) and revenue growth (-2.80%)
Strongly bearish insider sentiment with CEO and CFO selling shares

Compare Another Pair

COP vs MGY: Head-to-Head Comparison

This page compares ConocoPhillips (COP) and Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) across key fundamental metrics including valuation ratios, profitability margins, growth rates, financial health indicators, and dividend metrics. Each metric highlights the better-performing stock so you can quickly identify relative strengths and weaknesses.

Our AI engine independently analyzes each company's financials, competitive position, and market conditions to produce a verdict (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) along with key strengths and risks. Use this comparison alongside your own research to make informed investment decisions.

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