AAL American Airlines Group Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Airlines
Current Price
Live
$13.59
Analyst Target
$17.62
+29.6%
Upside
52W High
$16.5
52W Low
$8.5
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 21, 2026
Market cap
$8.97B
P/E
79.94
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
0.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AAL's Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health, but the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about bankruptcy risk, especially given a current ratio of 0.50 and quick ratio of 0.35—both below safe thresholds. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 4.99, suggesting market optimism on recovery, yet earnings growth remains deeply negative at -83.1% YoY. Despite a recent 194.1% Q/Q EPS rebound, the 5-year price decline of 33.5% and bearish insider activity signal persistent investor skepticism. The Graham Number and intrinsic value are unavailable, leaving no clear defensive fair value anchor.
Key Strengths
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong operational and financial stability
Forward P/E of 4.99 suggests potential undervaluation relative to current earnings
Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +194.1% signals strong recovery momentum
Analyst consensus leans toward 'buy' with a target price of $17.62
Gross margin of 22.74% reflects relatively efficient cost structure
Key Risks
Negative earnings growth of -83.1% YoY and -83.2% Q/Q indicate ongoing profitability challenges
Current ratio of 0.50 and quick ratio of 0.35 signal severe liquidity risk
Insider selling totaling $1.35M in last 6 months reflects bearish sentiment from leadership
No Graham Number or intrinsic value estimate undermines fundamental valuation clarity
Absence of Altman Z-Score with weak liquidity ratios raises bankruptcy risk concerns
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Moderate
40
60
55
45
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: Strong Piotroski F-Score but missing Altman Z-Score, Bearish insider activity and weak liquidity, High forward P/E with negative earnings growth
Confidence
80%
Value
40/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 4.99 is low relative to historical averages
- Price/Sales of 0.16 suggests deep discount to revenue
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number or intrinsic value for defensive valuation
- Price/Book of -2.41 indicates negative equity, undermining book value
- Lack of clear fair value anchor despite low multiples
Future
60/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +194.1% reflects strong recovery
- Forward P/E implies market expects earnings rebound
Watchpoints
- YoY earnings growth remains deeply negative at -83.1%
- Revenue growth is only 2.50%, indicating limited top-line expansion
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflects consistent operational discipline
- Historical earnings surprise average of +0.10% over last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- 5-year price return of -33.5% reflects prolonged underperformance
- Multiple quarters with large negative surprises (e.g., -191.1%)
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available, but current and quick ratios are dangerously low
- Liquidity ratios below 1.0 suggest short-term solvency risk
- Debt/Equity and cash/debt data missing, limiting assessment
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield and payout ratio are both zero
- No history of dividend payments
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$13.59
Analyst Target
$17.62
Upside/Downside
+29.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-20
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Primary
|
-33.5% | -13.4% | -14.3% | +0.3% | -10.3% | -2.1% |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+19.9% | +19.9% | +63.0% | +38.3% | +18.3% | +1.7% |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
Peer
|
+20.6% | -9.0% | +9.5% | +1.8% | +8.1% | +2.2% |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Peer
|
+107.0% | +100.5% | -7.1% | +19.2% | +7.0% | +1.2% |
|
AYI
Acuity Inc.
Peer
|
+157.1% | +78.0% | -6.3% | +4.5% | -15.3% | -1.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
79.94
Forward P/E
4.99
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-2.41
P/S Ratio
0.16
EV/Revenue
0.72
EV/EBITDA
10.05
Market Cap
$8.97B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.2%
Operating Margin
3.62%
Gross Margin
22.73%
ROE
N/A
ROA
1.71%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
Earnings Growth
-83.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-83.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.5
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.35
Poor
Cash/Share
$9.8
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-23
$N/A
2026-01-27
$0.16
-54.6% surprise
2025-10-23
$-0.17
+38.2% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.91
+16.7% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AAL against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 61 neutral, 56 bearish)
P/E Ratio
79.94
This Stock
vs
74.17
Sector Avg
+7.8%
(Premium)
Profit Margin
0.2%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-99.7%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
2.5%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-89.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.5
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-81.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.97B | 79.94 | -% | 0.2% | $13.59 | |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.62B | 131.04 | 1.3% | 0.5% | $35.38 | |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $8.49B | 22.76 | 6.7% | 3.7% | $113.79 | |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.35B | 84.55 | 12.1% | 7.6% | $102.3 | |
|
AYI
Acuity Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.69B | 23.97 | 15.6% | 9.0% | $315.25 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | SEYMOUR DAVID | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 25,595 | $409,699 |
| 2025-12-09 | SEYMOUR DAVID | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 62,507 | $938,286 |
| 2025-11-03 | PIEPER NATHANIEL | Officer | Stock Award | 22,488 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
TD Cowen
2026-01-30
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-01-28
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-12
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Susquehanna
2026-01-09
Neutral
Positive
Citigroup
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
TD Cowen
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
UBS
2026-01-06
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2026-01-06
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-12-18
Equal-Weight
UBS
2025-12-12
Neutral
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.