AAL American Airlines Group Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Airlines
Current Price
Live
$13.88
Analyst Target
$17.62
+26.9%
Upside
52W High
$16.5
52W Low
$8.5
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$9.16B
P/E
81.65
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
0.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AAL's Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health, but the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, especially given a current ratio of 0.50 and quick ratio of 0.35—both below the safe threshold. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.10, suggesting market optimism, yet earnings growth is sharply negative at -83.1% YoY, and the company has no dividend. Despite a recent 6-month price rebound, the 1-year return is down 11.8%, and insider selling of $1.35M in the last 6 months signals caution. The intrinsic value estimate of $1.19 is far below the current price of $13.88, indicating significant overvaluation unless future growth materializes.
Key Strengths
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong operational and financial stability
Forward P/E of 5.10 suggests potential undervaluation relative to current earnings
Recent 6-month price increase of 5.4% reflects short-term market optimism
Positive earnings surprise in 2024 Q1 (265.6%) shows potential for upside momentum
Analyst consensus recommends 'buy' with a target price of $17.62, implying upside potential
Key Risks
Negative earnings growth of -83.1% YoY and -83.2% Q/Q indicate deteriorating profitability
Extremely low current and quick ratios (0.50 and 0.35) signal liquidity stress
No Graham Number or intrinsic value alignment with current price ($1.19 vs $13.88)
Insider selling of $1.35M in last 6 months, particularly from COO, indicates bearish sentiment
No dividend and zero payout ratio suggest no shareholder return, limiting appeal
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$1.19
-91.4% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
36
Weak
30
50
60
40
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: Strong Piotroski F-Score but missing Altman Z-Score, Negative earnings growth and weak liquidity ratios, High forward P/E with no current earnings support, Insider selling and low dividend yield
Confidence
80%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 5.10 is low relative to sector average of 73.93
- Price/Sales of 0.17 suggests low valuation relative to revenue
Watchpoints
- Graham Number not available; intrinsic value estimate of $1.19 is far below current price
- Price/Book of -2.46 indicates negative equity, a red flag
- No sustainable earnings to support valuation
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E suggests market expects earnings recovery
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +194.1% indicates potential rebound
Watchpoints
- YoY earnings growth is -83.1%, signaling ongoing profitability issues
- Revenue growth is only 2.50% YoY, below sector average of 16.68%
- No clear path to sustained earnings improvement
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflects strong historical financial discipline
- Multiple quarters with positive earnings surprises (e.g., +265.6% in 2024 Q1)
- Consistent improvement in earnings from 2020-2021 lows
Watchpoints
- Persistent negative earnings in 2020-2021, with losses exceeding $5/share
- Earnings volatility with large swings in surprise percentages
- Declining ROA (1.65%) and lack of ROE/ROIC data
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health
- Positive operating margin of 3.49% despite low profitability
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available; default risk cannot be ruled out
- Current ratio of 0.50 and quick ratio of 0.35 indicate severe liquidity risk
- Negative Price/Book (-2.46) implies negative equity
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend Strength score of 0/100
- Zero shareholder return mechanism
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$13.88
Analyst Target
$17.62
Upside/Downside
+26.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Primary
|
-22.1% | -17.3% | -11.8% | +5.4% | -8.3% | -8.9% |
|
AYI
Acuity Inc.
Peer
|
+157.1% | +78.0% | -6.3% | +4.5% | -15.3% | -1.6% |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+19.9% | +19.9% | +63.0% | +38.3% | +18.3% | +1.7% |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
Peer
|
+20.6% | -9.0% | +9.5% | +1.8% | +8.1% | +2.2% |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Peer
|
+102.3% | +96.3% | -10.1% | +27.3% | +15.0% | +4.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
81.65
Forward P/E
5.1
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-2.46
P/S Ratio
0.17
EV/Revenue
0.72
EV/EBITDA
10.29
Market Cap
$9.16B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.2%
Operating Margin
3.49%
Gross Margin
23.23%
ROE
N/A
ROA
1.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.5%
Earnings Growth
-83.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-83.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.5
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.35
Poor
Cash/Share
$9.8
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-23
$N/A
2026-01-27
$0.16
-54.6% surprise
2025-10-23
$-0.17
+38.2% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.95
+22.7% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AAL against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 62 neutral, 55 bearish)
P/E Ratio
81.65
This Stock
vs
74.1
Sector Avg
+10.2%
(Premium)
Profit Margin
0.2%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-99.7%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
2.5%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-89.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.5
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-81.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $9.16B | 81.65 | -% | 0.2% | $13.88 | |
|
AYI
Acuity Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.69B | 23.97 | 15.6% | 9.0% | $315.25 | |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.62B | 131.04 | 1.3% | 0.5% | $35.38 | |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $8.49B | 22.76 | 6.7% | 3.7% | $113.79 | |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.25B | 84.2 | 12.1% | 7.6% | $101.04 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | SEYMOUR DAVID | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 25,595 | $409,699 |
| 2025-12-09 | SEYMOUR DAVID | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 62,507 | $938,286 |
| 2025-11-03 | PIEPER NATHANIEL | Officer | Stock Award | 22,488 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
TD Cowen
2026-01-30
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-01-28
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-12
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Susquehanna
2026-01-09
Neutral
Positive
Citigroup
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
TD Cowen
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
UBS
2026-01-06
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2026-01-06
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-12-18
Equal-Weight
UBS
2025-12-12
Neutral
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.