ADTN ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ADTN Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Communication Equipment
Current Price
Live
$10.13
Analyst Target
$12.67
+25.0%
Upside
52W High
$12.44
52W Low
$6.93
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$811.58M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-11.8%
Profit margin
-7.6%
Debt/Equity
0.45
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
ADTN's Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates a stable but not strong financial health, with mixed signals in profitability and cash flow. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given negative ROE and ROA. Despite a strong 22.7% YoY revenue growth and recent EPS improvement, the company remains unprofitable with negative margins and inconsistent earnings. The stock trades at a premium P/B of 5.71 and forward P/E of 21.44, suggesting high growth expectations. Analysts show cautious optimism with a $12.67 target, but insider activity is neutral and dividend strength is zero.
Key Strengths
22.7% year-over-year revenue growth indicates strong top-line expansion
Improving earnings trend with +350% YoY EPS growth and +66.7% Q/Q EPS growth
Positive recent earnings surprises (e.g., +200% in Q1 2025, +321% in Q2 2022)
Solid current ratio of 1.96 and manageable debt/equity of 0.45
Strong analyst target price of $12.67, implying upside from current levels
Key Risks
Negative profit margin (-7.65%) and ROE (-11.81%) indicate ongoing profitability challenges
Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests financial stability but not strength, with red flags in operating cash flow and net income trends
No Altman Z-Score available; absence of distress risk metric raises uncertainty about bankruptcy risk
Zero dividend yield and no payout history limit income appeal and signal reinvestment focus
High forward P/E of 21.44 and P/B of 5.71 suggest valuation premium, vulnerable to growth disappointment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$11.25
+11.1% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
47
Moderate
55
78
52
50
0
AI Verdict
Neutral
Key drivers: Strong revenue growth and improving earnings trends, Mixed financial health signals (Piotroski 5/9, no Altman Z), Premium valuation relative to fundamentals, Lack of dividend and inconsistent profitability
Confidence
75%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 21.44 is below sector average of 80.52
- Price/Sales of 0.78 is below 1.0, suggesting undervaluation on sales basis
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number or intrinsic value estimate available
- P/B of 5.71 is high, indicating premium valuation
- Forward P/E is elevated for a company with negative earnings history
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 22.7% YoY revenue growth is robust
- EPS growth has accelerated to +350% YoY and +66.7% Q/Q
- Recent earnings surprises have been positive and large in magnitude
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is based on a low base (negative prior periods)
- No clear path to sustained profitability yet
Past
52/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical earnings have shown significant volatility but with strong upside surprises
- Improvement in EPS from deep losses in 2020–2021 to positive results in 2022–2025
Watchpoints
- Persistent negative ROE and ROA over multiple years
- Multiple quarters with large negative surprises (e.g., -1047% in Q4 2023)
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.96 indicates solid short-term liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.45 is below sector average of 0.70
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is below the strong threshold (7–9)
- Negative ROE (-11.81%) and ROA (-1.68%) signal weak capital efficiency
- No Altman Z-Score available, which is a critical gap for distress risk assessment
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend strength is 0/100, indicating no income component
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$10.13
Analyst Target
$12.67
Upside/Downside
+25.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ADTN and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
-33.7% | -39.8% | -14.4% | +14.6% | +15.6% | +2.7% |
|
AEVA
Aeva Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
-84.1% | +61.7% | +224.1% | +3.7% | -34.4% | +9.5% |
|
ALIT
Alight, Inc.
Peer
|
-87.9% | -83.0% | -77.8% | -73.4% | -24.4% | -5.1% |
|
AEHR
Aehr Test Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
+784.7% | -14.2% | +174.7% | +57.5% | +11.1% | +9.3% |
|
BLND
Blend Labs, Inc.
Peer
|
-86.6% | +90.5% | -24.7% | -22.6% | -7.0% | -5.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
21.44
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.71
P/S Ratio
0.78
EV/Revenue
1.31
EV/EBITDA
23.45
Market Cap
$811.58M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-7.65%
Operating Margin
-0.96%
Gross Margin
37.57%
ROE
-11.81%
ROA
-1.68%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+22.7%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.45
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.96
Good
Quick Ratio
0.93
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.17
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-25
$N/A
2025-11-03
$0.05
-19.4% surprise
2025-08-04
$N/A
-100.0% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.03
+200.0% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing ADTN against 149 companies in the Technology sector
(11 bullish, 68 neutral, 70 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-11.81%
This Stock
vs
-6.46%
Sector Avg
+82.8%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
-7.65%
This Stock
vs
-9.27%
Sector Avg
-17.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.45
This Stock
vs
0.7
Sector Avg
-35.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
22.7%
This Stock
vs
61.63%
Sector Avg
-63.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.96
This Stock
vs
3.39
Sector Avg
-42.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $811.58M | - | -11.8% | -7.6% | $10.13 | |
|
AEVA
Aeva Technologies, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $815.89M | - | -192.3% | -% | $13.58 | |
|
ALIT
Alight, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $818.74M | - | -66.9% | -94.2% | $1.49 | |
|
AEHR
Aehr Test Systems, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $883.29M | - | -7.0% | -16.6% | $28.84 | |
|
BLND
Blend Labs, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $727.29M | - | -0.5% | -2.5% | $2.8 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | WILSON JAMES DENSON JR | Officer | Stock Award | 3,777 | - |
| 2026-01-26 | WILSON JAMES DENSON JR | Officer | Stock Award | 3,777 | - |
| 2026-01-26 | STANTON THOMAS R | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 27,973 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | JACQUELINE HOURIGAN RICE | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | NAIR BALAN | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | HUSS HARRY FENWICK | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | WALKER KATHRYN A | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | MCCRAY GREGORY JAMES | Director | Stock Award | 13,809 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | SANTO TIMOTHY P | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 6,150 | $49,323 |
| 2025-11-26 | THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS | Director | Purchase | 12,859 | $100,429 |
| 2025-11-24 | STANTON THOMAS R | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 40,928 | $300,002 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
Rosenblatt
2025-11-05
Buy
Buy
B. Riley Securities
2025-09-18
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ADTN from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.