AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AFRM Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Financial Services
Credit Services
Current Price
Live
$49.81
Analyst Target
$86.0
+72.7%
Upside
52W High
$100.0
52W Low
$30.9
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$16.59B
P/E
61.49
ROE
8.9%
Profit margin
7.6%
Debt/Equity
2.59
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AFRM demonstrates strong deterministic health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating solid operational efficiency and profitability trends. However, the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about bankruptcy risk, especially given a high debt/equity ratio of 2.59 and historically volatile earnings. The stock trades at a premium valuation (P/E 61.49 vs. sector average 30.52), with forward P/E suggesting optimism, but this is undermined by weak insider sentiment and recent significant insider selling. Despite robust revenue and earnings growth, the company's financial health and valuation present a high-risk profile.
Key Strengths
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong operational and financial health
High revenue growth (29.60% YoY) and earnings growth (59.30% YoY)
Strong gross margin of 47.78% and improving operating margin
Positive Q/Q earnings growth of 61.30% and strong year-over-year EPS growth of 213%
Intrinsic value estimate of $23.9 suggests potential undervaluation if growth is sustained
Key Risks
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.59 is significantly above sector average (1.51), indicating high leverage
Insider selling totaling $57.23M in last 6 months signals bearish sentiment from leadership
Current price of $49.81 is more than 2.1x the Graham Number ($13.95), indicating extreme premium valuation
No Altman Z-Score available, and financial health metrics (e.g., high debt, low ROE) suggest distress risk
Recent earnings misses (e.g., -13.9%, -51.8%) and inconsistent beat rate (1/4 in last 4 quarters) indicate earnings instability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$23.9
-52.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
42
Moderate
35
78
55
40
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: Strong Piotroski F-Score and growth metrics, High valuation and insider selling, Absence of Altman Z-Score and elevated leverage
Confidence
85%
Value
35/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Intrinsic value estimate of $23.9 based on growth model
- Graham Number of $13.95 provides a conservative floor
Watchpoints
- Current price ($49.81) is 2.1x the Graham Number
- P/E of 61.49 is nearly double the sector average (30.52)
- Forward P/E of 13.59 is misleading due to extreme earnings volatility
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 29.60% YoY revenue growth and 59.30% earnings growth
- 61.30% Q/Q earnings growth and 213% YoY EPS growth
- Strong forward-looking growth expectations reflected in analyst target
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility with multiple large misses (e.g., -51.8%)
- Unreliable earnings consistency undermines growth sustainability
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent revenue growth over 22 quarters
- Improving operating margin and gross margin
- Positive trend in earnings progression from deep losses to profitability
Watchpoints
- Frequent negative earnings surprises in prior quarters
- Historical EPS volatility (e.g., -281.9% surprise in 2021)
- Only 1 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health
- Positive operating cash flow and improving margins
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising bankruptcy risk concerns
- Debt/Equity ratio of 2.59 is dangerously high
- Current ratio of 13.85 and quick ratio of 10.21 suggest liquidity overhang, not strength
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend declared
- Payout ratio of 0.00%
- Dividend yield and rate are N/A
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$49.81
Analyst Target
$86.0
Upside/Downside
+72.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AFRM and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
-58.2% | +280.2% | -37.2% | -36.7% | -31.4% | -12.7% |
|
BSAC
Banco Santander-Chile
Peer
|
+126.8% | +172.0% | +92.5% | +54.5% | +15.5% | +8.6% |
|
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
Peer
|
+89.9% | +41.7% | -2.8% | -5.9% | +3.9% | -0.6% |
|
IREN
IREN Limited
Peer
|
+89.7% | +1824.1% | +348.9% | +451.4% | -31.8% | -25.7% |
|
BEN
Franklin Resources, Inc.
Peer
|
+21.5% | -0.8% | +34.2% | +4.8% | +6.1% | -2.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
61.49
Forward P/E
13.59
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.67
P/S Ratio
4.47
EV/Revenue
6.51
EV/EBITDA
45.93
Market Cap
$16.59B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.6%
Operating Margin
10.47%
Gross Margin
47.78%
ROE
8.92%
ROA
1.23%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+29.6%
Earnings Growth
+59.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+61.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.59
High debt
Current Ratio
13.85
Strong
Quick Ratio
10.21
Excellent
Cash/Share
$4.7
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-05
$0.72
-13.9% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.61
-1.3% surprise
2025-08-28
$0.53
+22.5% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AFRM against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
61.49
This Stock
vs
30.38
Sector Avg
+102.4%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.92%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-217.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.6%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-90.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.59
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
+71.3%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
29.6%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-2.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
13.85
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
+266.1%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $16.59B | 61.49 | 8.9% | 7.6% | $49.81 | |
|
BSAC
Banco Santander-Chile
|
NEUTRAL | $17.04B | 14.19 | 23.2% | 45.7% | $36.18 | |
|
ARCC
Ares Capital Corporation
|
BEARISH | $14.9B | 10.49 | 10.1% | 45.2% | $20.78 | |
|
IREN
IREN Limited
|
BEARISH | $13.79B | 26.65 | 26.1% | 76.0% | $46.37 | |
|
BEN
Franklin Resources, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $13.2B | 28.44 | 3.8% | 6.0% | $25.31 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN | Chief Operating Officer | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $980,000 |
| 2026-01-30 | ADKINS KATHERINE ELIZABETH | Officer | Stock Award | 1,401 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN | Chief Operating Officer | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $980,000 |
| 2026-01-30 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 2,335 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | MICHALEK LIBOR | President | Stock Award | 2,335 | - |
| 2026-01-05 | LEVCHIN MAKSIM RAFAEL | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 666,666 | $53,747,814 |
| 2026-01-05 | LEVCHIN MAKSIM RAFAEL | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 666,666 | $32,666,634 |
| 2026-01-05 | O'HARE ROBERT WARREN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 36,401 | $2,912,080 |
| 2026-01-05 | O'HARE ROBERT WARREN | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 36,401 | $1,012,073 |
| 2025-12-31 | ADKINS KATHERINE ELIZABETH | Officer | Stock Award | 1,707 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | LINFORD MICHAEL ALAN | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 2,336 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | MICHALEK LIBOR | President | Stock Award | 2,336 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | HUGHES BRIAN D. | Director | Stock Award | 3,579 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | QUARLES CHRISTA S. | Director | Stock Award | 3,579 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | RESES JACQUELINE D | Director | Stock Award | 3,579 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
26 analysts
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-02-09
Overweight
Overweight
Mizuho
2026-02-09
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2026-02-06
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2026-02-06
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Oppenheimer
2026-02-06
Outperform
Outperform
Stephens & Co.
2026-02-06
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Needham
2026-02-06
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2026-02-03
Equal-Weight
Overweight
Needham
2026-01-27
Hold
Buy
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-01-27
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AFRM from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.