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AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH
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AGNC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Real Estate REIT - Mortgage
Current Price Live
$11.45
Analyst Target
$11.78
+2.9% Upside
52W High
$12.19
52W Low
$7.85

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
87%
Analysis Accuracy
AGNC's Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress, with weak operational and capital structure health. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises red flags for potential bankruptcy risk, especially given a dangerously high Debt/Equity ratio of 6.89 and near-zero liquidity (Current Ratio: 0.18). While the stock trades at a deep discount to its Graham Number ($17.64) and intrinsic value ($43.37), this is likely due to unsustainable growth and a payout ratio of 97.96%, which is unsustainable long-term. The recent insider selling of $11.43M in shares over six months signals strong bearish sentiment from insiders. Despite strong earnings growth, the company's financial health and dividend safety are severely compromised.

Key Strengths

Significant earnings growth (775.90% YoY) and strong Q/Q EPS growth (+137.1%) indicate recent operational momentum
Low P/E ratio (7.79) and forward P/E (7.63) suggest the stock is undervalued relative to traditional metrics
Graham Number ($17.64) and intrinsic value ($43.37) imply substantial upside potential if fundamentals stabilize
High dividend yield (12.58%) attracts income-focused investors despite payout risk
Strong historical earnings surprise average (22.82%) in recent quarters shows occasional outperformance

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals extreme financial weakness and poor operational health
Debt/Equity ratio of 6.89 is dangerously high, indicating over-leveraged capital structure
Current and quick ratios (0.18 and 0.17) indicate severe liquidity risk and inability to meet short-term obligations
Dividend payout ratio of 97.96% is unsustainable and threatens long-term dividend safety
Insiders sold $11.43M in shares over 6 months, signaling lack of confidence in the company’s future
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.64
+54.1% above current price

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