AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AGNC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Real Estate
REIT - Mortgage
Current Price
Live
$11.44
Analyst Target
$11.78
+3.0%
Upside
52W High
$12.19
52W Low
$7.85
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 07, 2026
Market cap
$12.67B
P/E
7.78
ROE
15.1%
Profit margin
92.9%
Debt/Equity
6.89
Dividend yield
12.59%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AGNC's deterministic health scores signal significant financial distress: the Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak operational and financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score (with a critical debt/equity ratio of 6.89 and current ratio of 0.18) raises serious bankruptcy risk. Despite a high intrinsic value estimate of $43.37 and a Graham Number of $17.64, the stock trades at $11.44, suggesting a potential undervaluation—but this is misleading given the extreme leverage and unsustainable payout ratio. The 97.96% dividend payout ratio, combined with a 12.59% yield, reflects a high-risk income trap. Insider selling of $10.86M over six months further undermines confidence in management's view of the company's future.
Key Strengths
High intrinsic value estimate of $43.37 based on growth assumptions
Strong historical earnings growth (775.90% YoY) and recent Q/Q EPS growth of 137.1%
Attractive dividend yield of 12.59% for income investors
Significant revenue growth (546.10% YoY) and strong earnings surprises in past quarters
Analyst consensus recommends 'buy' with a target price of $11.78
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress and weak operational health
Debt/Equity ratio of 6.89 and current ratio of 0.18 signal extreme financial leverage and liquidity risk
Dividend payout ratio of 97.96% is unsustainable and threatens long-term dividend stability
Insider selling of $10.86M in the last six months reflects bearish sentiment from management
No Altman Z-Score available, but ratios suggest distress risk (Z < 1.8 likely), indicating high bankruptcy probability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.64
+54.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
65
72
55
20
15
AI Verdict
High risk, low confidence
Key drivers: Extremely weak Piotroski F-Score (2/9), Unsustainable payout ratio (97.96%), High leverage and liquidity risk, Bearish insider activity, Lack of Altman Z-Score despite distress indicators
Confidence
80%
Value
65/100
P/E of 7.78 is low relative to sector average of 49.85, but this reflects distress, not value
Positives
- Current price ($11.44) is below Graham Number ($17.64)
- Intrinsic value estimate ($43.37) suggests significant upside potential
Watchpoints
- Graham Number is based on conservative assumptions, not current earnings
- High growth expectations are not sustainable given financial health
- Stock trades at a discount to intrinsic value, but only due to risk premium
Future
72/100
High growth rates are impressive but not supported by healthy balance sheet or stable earnings
Positives
- 775.90% YoY earnings growth and 682% Q/Q earnings growth indicate explosive momentum
- Recent EPS growth of 730% YoY suggests strong near-term performance
Watchpoints
- Growth is likely unsustainable given high leverage and payout ratio
- Revenue growth (546.10%) may be one-time or cyclical, not structural
- No PEG ratio available, but high growth with weak fundamentals raises red flags
Past
55/100
Past performance shows volatility and inconsistency, undermining reliability
Positives
- Historical earnings surprises average +22.82% over last 4 quarters
- Consistent beat rate in prior years (e.g., 2020–2023), showing strong execution
Watchpoints
- Recent quarter (2026-01-26) saw a +85.3% surprise, but prior quarters show volatility
- 2025-01-27 earnings dropped 75.5% below estimate, indicating instability
- Quarterly earnings have been inconsistent, with large swings
Health
20/100
Despite strong margins, financial health is critically impaired
Positives
- High operating margin (95.88%) and gross margin (100.00%) suggest strong operational efficiency
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial weakness
- Debt/Equity of 6.89 is dangerously high
- Current and quick ratios of 0.18 and 0.17 indicate liquidity crisis
- No Altman Z-Score available, but ratios suggest distress risk (Z < 1.8 likely)
Dividend
15/100
Dividend is a major red flag; it is not supported by earnings and threatens long-term viability
Positives
- High dividend yield of 12.59% is attractive for income investors
- Dividend has been paid consistently in past quarters
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 97.96% is unsustainable and exceeds earnings
- Dividend is funded by debt or capital, not earnings
- Insider selling suggests dividend may be at risk
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$11.44
Analyst Target
$11.78
Upside/Downside
+3.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGNC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-06
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
Primary
|
+36.7% | +52.2% | +30.5% | +29.8% | +4.5% | +0.3% |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
Peer
|
+17.8% | +5.7% | -4.3% | -9.5% | +0.5% | -1.1% |
|
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.
Peer
|
-56.7% | -56.2% | -36.8% | -25.1% | +24.2% | +3.1% |
|
AGNCM
AGNC Investment Corp.
Peer
|
+50.8% | +43.9% | +8.8% | +4.0% | +1.4% | +0.1% |
|
AGNCN
AGNC Investment Corp.
Peer
|
+59.8% | +38.1% | +9.7% | +4.2% | +1.2% | +0.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
7.78
Forward P/E
7.63
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.22
P/S Ratio
7.05
EV/Revenue
46.05
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$12.67B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
92.93%
Operating Margin
95.88%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
15.08%
ROA
1.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+546.1%
Earnings Growth
+775.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+682.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
6.89
High debt
Current Ratio
0.18
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$15.56
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-20
$N/A
2026-01-26
$0.83
+85.3% surprise
2025-10-20
$0.35
-9.4% surprise
2025-07-21
$0.38
-7.4% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing AGNC against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 9 neutral, 46 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.78
This Stock
vs
49.55
Sector Avg
-84.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.08%
This Stock
vs
-75.75%
Sector Avg
-119.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
92.93%
This Stock
vs
24.96%
Sector Avg
+272.4%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
6.89
This Stock
vs
3.28
Sector Avg
+110.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
546.1%
This Stock
vs
108.53%
Sector Avg
+403.2%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.18
This Stock
vs
8.3
Sector Avg
-97.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
BEARISH | $12.67B | 7.78 | 15.1% | 92.9% | $11.44 | |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
|
NEUTRAL | $13.52B | 26.66 | 6.6% | 24.7% | $31.99 | |
|
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate...
|
BEARISH | $10.19B | - | -1.1% | -13.4% | $59.69 | |
|
AGNCM
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
BEARISH | $8.88B | - | 15.1% | 92.9% | $24.99 | |
|
AGNCN
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
BEARISH | $8.8B | - | 15.1% | 92.9% | $25.63 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | KAIN GARY DANIEL | Officer and Director | Sale | 700,000 | $8,336,300 |
| 2026-01-28 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 25,000 | $303,500 |
| 2026-01-28 | POLLACK KENNETH L | General Counsel | Sale | 50,000 | $605,500 |
| 2026-01-21 | KAIN GARY DANIEL | Officer and Director | Stock Award | 633,605 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | FEDERICO PETER J | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 754,303 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 168,878 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | POLLACK KENNETH L | General Counsel | Stock Award | 117,087 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | REID SEAN | Officer | Stock Award | 117,087 | - |
| 2025-11-10 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 20,000 | $205,350 |
| 2025-10-28 | FEDERICO PETER J | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 137,393 | $1,406,978 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
RBC Capital
2026-01-29
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-01-29
Overweight
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-29
Outperform
Market Perform
Jones Trading
2026-01-22
Buy
Hold
Piper Sandler
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-06
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
BTIG
2026-01-06
Buy
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2025-12-22
Overweight
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-12-18
Outperform
Outperform
RBC Capital
2025-10-22
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGNC from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.