AGNC
BEARISH
$10.23
Live
AGNC Investment Corp. · NASDAQ
Target $11.78
(+15.1%)
$7.85
52W Range
$12.19
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$11.49B
P/E
6.96
ROE
15.1%
Profit margin
92.9%
Debt/Equity
6.89
Dividend yield
14.08%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
AGNC exhibits severe financial health concerns, as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 (indicating weak fundamentals) and a missing Altman Z-Score, which raises unquantified distress risk. Despite a high intrinsic value estimate of $43.37 and a Graham Number of $17.64, the stock trades at $10.23, suggesting a potential undervaluation—however, this is undermined by extreme leverage (Debt/Equity: 6.89), near-zero liquidity (Current Ratio: 0.18), and a 97.96% payout ratio. The recent insider selling of $11.43M over six months signals strong bearish sentiment, while earnings have consistently missed expectations in the last four quarters. The 52-week range of $7.85–$12.19 reflects high volatility and lack of sustained momentum.
Key Strengths
High intrinsic value estimate of $43.37 based on growth assumptions
Graham Number of $17.64 suggests defensive fair value
Historically strong earnings growth (e.g., +250% YoY EPS growth)
Attractive dividend yield of 14.08% for income investors
Analyst consensus recommends 'buy' with a target price of $11.78
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health and operational instability
Debt/Equity ratio of 6.89 is dangerously high for a REIT
Current and quick ratios of 0.18 and 0.17 signal severe liquidity risk
97.96% payout ratio is unsustainable long-term without new capital
Recent insider selling of $11.43M over six months reflects bearish sentiment from insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.64
+72.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Moderate
65
50
40
20
25
AI Verdict
Weak
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, High leverage and liquidity risk, Sustained earnings misses, Bearish insider activity
Confidence
85%
Value
65/100
P/E of 6.96 is low relative to sector average of 48.42, but this is likely due to extreme financial risk, not undervaluation
Positives
- Current price ($10.23) is below Graham Number ($17.64)
- Intrinsic value estimate ($43.37) is significantly above current price
Watchpoints
- High growth expectations may not be sustainable
- Valuation is not supported by stable fundamentals
Future
50/100
Growth metrics are extreme but likely driven by one-time or cyclical factors; sustainability is questionable
Positives
- High revenue and earnings growth (546% and 772% YoY)
- Strong Q/Q earnings growth (682%)
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses (last 4 quarters: -7.48% average surprise)
- Sustained high growth may not be repeatable given current leverage
Past
40/100
Historical performance was strong, but recent deterioration suggests a structural shift
Positives
- Historical earnings beat streak (2020–2022)
- Consistent EPS growth prior to 2023
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses (e.g., -75.5% surprise in Q1 2025)
- Declining earnings trend in 2025–2026
Health
20/100
Financial health is critically weak; the absence of an Altman Z-Score is a red flag for default risk
Positives
- High profit margins (92.93% profit margin)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 (very weak)
- Missing Altman Z-Score (no distress risk assessment)
- Debt/Equity of 6.89 (extremely high)
- Current ratio of 0.18 (severe liquidity risk)
Dividend
25/100
Dividend appears to be funded by debt or capital depletion, not earnings
Positives
- High dividend yield of 14.08% is attractive for income seekers
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 97.96% is unsustainable
- Dividend is not covered by earnings
- Insider selling undermines confidence in dividend sustainability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$10.23
Analyst Target
$11.78
Upside/Downside
+15.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGNC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
Primary
|
+20.9% | +55.7% | +17.8% | +7.5% | -9.5% | -3.9% |
|
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.
Peer
|
-56.7% | -56.2% | -36.8% | -25.1% | +24.2% | +3.1% |
|
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
Peer
|
+47.1% | +9.3% | +4.1% | +7.3% | -2.2% | +4.8% |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
Peer
|
+17.8% | +5.7% | -4.3% | -9.5% | +0.5% | -1.1% |
|
LAMR
Lamar Advertising Company
Peer
|
+77.0% | +53.2% | +28.1% | +16.8% | +0.3% | +4.5% |
AGN
AGNC Investment Corp.
Primary
5Y
+20.9%
3Y
+55.7%
1Y
+17.8%
6M
+7.5%
1M
-9.5%
1W
-3.9%
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-56.7%
3Y
-56.2%
1Y
-36.8%
6M
-25.1%
1M
+24.2%
1W
+3.1%
GLP
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+47.1%
3Y
+9.3%
1Y
+4.1%
6M
+7.3%
1M
-2.2%
1W
+4.8%
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
Peer
5Y
+17.8%
3Y
+5.7%
1Y
-4.3%
6M
-9.5%
1M
+0.5%
1W
-1.1%
LAM
Lamar Advertising Company
Peer
5Y
+77.0%
3Y
+53.2%
1Y
+28.1%
6M
+16.8%
1M
+0.3%
1W
+4.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
6.96
Forward P/E
6.82
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.09
P/S Ratio
6.39
EV/Revenue
45.31
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$11.49B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
92.93%
Operating Margin
95.88%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
15.08%
ROA
1.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+546.1%
Earnings Growth
+772.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+682.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
6.89
High debt
Current Ratio
0.18
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$15.54
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-20
$N/A
2026-01-26
$0.35
-5.6% surprise
2025-10-20
$0.35
-9.4% surprise
2025-07-21
$0.38
-7.4% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing AGNC against 91 companies in the Real Estate sector
(4 bullish, 12 neutral, 75 bearish)
P/E Ratio
6.96
This Stock
vs
44.3
Sector Avg
-84.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.08%
This Stock
vs
-55.73%
Sector Avg
-127.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
92.93%
This Stock
vs
10.59%
Sector Avg
+777.3%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
6.89
This Stock
vs
2.52
Sector Avg
+173.7%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
546.1%
This Stock
vs
29720.08%
Sector Avg
-98.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.18
This Stock
vs
6.52
Sector Avg
-97.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
BEARISH | $11.49B | 6.96 | 15.1% | 92.9% | $10.23 | |
|
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate...
|
BEARISH | $10.19B | - | -1.1% | -13.4% | $59.69 | Compare |
|
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $13.18B | 15.67 | 17.6% | 51.7% | $46.54 | Compare |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
|
NEUTRAL | $13.52B | 26.66 | 6.6% | 24.7% | $31.99 | Compare |
|
LAMR
Lamar Advertising Company
|
BEARISH | $13.54B | 23.16 | 57.2% | 25.9% | $133.43 | Compare |
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$11.5B
P/E
7.0
ROE
15.1%
Price
$10.23
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | KAIN GARY DANIEL | Officer and Director | Stock Award | 62,152 | - |
| 2026-03-02 | FEDERICO PETER J | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 184,977 | - |
| 2026-03-02 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 89,686 | - |
| 2026-03-02 | POLLACK KENNETH L | General Counsel | Stock Award | 60,538 | - |
| 2026-03-02 | REID SEAN | Officer | Stock Award | 80,717 | - |
| 2026-02-19 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 50,397 | $570,036 |
| 2026-01-29 | KAIN GARY DANIEL | Officer and Director | Sale | 700,000 | $8,336,300 |
| 2026-01-28 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 25,000 | $303,500 |
| 2026-01-28 | POLLACK KENNETH L | General Counsel | Sale | 50,000 | $605,500 |
| 2026-01-21 | KAIN GARY DANIEL | Officer and Director | Stock Award | 633,605 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | FEDERICO PETER J | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 754,303 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 168,878 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | POLLACK KENNETH L | General Counsel | Stock Award | 117,087 | - |
| 2026-01-21 | REID SEAN | Officer | Stock Award | 117,087 | - |
| 2025-11-10 | BELL BERNICE E. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 20,000 | $205,350 |
KAIN GARY DANIEL
Officer and Director
2026-03-02
62,152 shares
FEDERICO PETER J
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-02
184,977 shares
BELL BERNICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-02
89,686 shares
POLLACK KENNETH L
General Counsel
2026-03-02
60,538 shares
REID SEAN
Officer
2026-03-02
80,717 shares
BELL BERNICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-19
50,397 shares
·
$570,036
KAIN GARY DANIEL
Officer and Director
2026-01-29
700,000 shares
·
$8,336,300
BELL BERNICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-28
25,000 shares
·
$303,500
POLLACK KENNETH L
General Counsel
2026-01-28
50,000 shares
·
$605,500
KAIN GARY DANIEL
Officer and Director
2026-01-21
633,605 shares
FEDERICO PETER J
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-21
754,303 shares
BELL BERNICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-21
168,878 shares
POLLACK KENNETH L
General Counsel
2026-01-21
117,087 shares
REID SEAN
Officer
2026-01-21
117,087 shares
BELL BERNICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
2025-11-10
20,000 shares
·
$205,350
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
RBC Capital
2026-01-29
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-01-29
Overweight
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-29
Outperform
Market Perform
Jones Trading
2026-01-22
Buy
Hold
Piper Sandler
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-06
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
BTIG
2026-01-06
Buy
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2025-12-22
Overweight
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-12-18
Outperform
Outperform
RBC Capital
2025-10-22
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGNC from our newsroom.
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