ALTO
NEUTRAL
$4.66
Live
Alto Ingredients, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $5.0
(+7.3%)
$0.76
52W Range
$4.89
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$360.42M
P/E
29.12
ROE
5.7%
Profit margin
1.5%
Debt/Equity
0.4
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
75%
ALTO's deterministic health scores reveal significant concerns: a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises distress risk concerns. Despite this, the stock trades at a discount to its Graham Number ($3.38) and intrinsic value ($1.12), suggesting potential undervaluation. The recent earnings surprise history is volatile but highly positive in the most recent quarters, with a 75% Q/Q EPS growth and 149% YoY EPS growth. Strong price momentum—253% 1-year return and 294.9% 6-month return—reflects market optimism, supported by a strong-buy analyst consensus. However, the company's negative revenue growth (-1.90% YoY) and minimal profitability (1.45% profit margin) remain critical red flags. Price trades at a 37.9% premium to fair value estimate ($3.38), limiting near-term upside from a valuation perspective.
Key Strengths
Recent earnings surprises are exceptionally strong, with a 623.24% average surprise over the last four quarters
Significant EPS growth (149.1% YoY, 75% Q/Q) indicates improving profitability despite weak revenue trends
Stock trades below Graham Number ($3.38) and intrinsic value ($1.12), suggesting potential undervaluation
Strong technical momentum with 294.9% 6-month return and 253% 1-year return
Analyst consensus is strong_buy, with a target price of $5.00, implying upside potential
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals weak financial health and poor operational efficiency
Negative revenue growth (-1.90% YoY) and low profitability (1.45% margin) indicate underlying business challenges
No Altman Z-Score available, raising unquantified bankruptcy risk concerns
High P/E ratio (29.12) and lack of PEG ratio suggest valuation may be stretched relative to earnings growth
Dividend strength is zero, and no cash flow or debt data is available, limiting financial transparency
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.38
-27.5% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
50
Moderate
68
85
60
35
0
AI Verdict
cautiously bullish
Key drivers: Strong recent earnings momentum and EPS growth, Undervaluation relative to Graham Number, Positive technical trend and price momentum, Weak Piotroski F-Score and lack of Altman Z-Score, Negative revenue growth and low margins
Confidence
75%
Value
68/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($4.66) is above intrinsic value ($1.12) but below Graham Number ($3.38)
- P/S ratio of 0.39 is low, indicating potential undervaluation on sales basis
- Forward P/E of 13.31 is below sector average (30.44), suggesting relative value
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 29.12 is high, especially given negative revenue growth
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
- Stock trades at a premium to Graham Number, indicating speculative premium
- Price trades at a 37.9% premium to fair value estimate ($3.38), limiting near-term upside from a valuation perspective.
Future
85/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 149.1% YoY EPS growth and 75% Q/Q EPS growth signal strong earnings recovery
- Recent earnings surprises are highly positive (avg +623%)
- Analyst target price ($5.00) implies upside potential
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is negative (-1.90% YoY), indicating top-line stagnation
- No forward revenue or earnings guidance available
- Lack of PEG ratio limits confidence in sustainable growth
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical earnings volatility shows strong upside surprises in recent quarters
- Multiple quarters with EPS beats and large positive surprises (e.g., +1500%)
- Price has recovered significantly from 52-week low of $0.76
Watchpoints
- Long history of negative earnings and large misses (e.g., -1154.7% surprise in 2022)
- Persistent negative margins and low ROE (5.67%)
- Inconsistent earnings performance over 25 quarters
Health
35/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio (2.64) and quick ratio (1.46) indicate solid short-term liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.40 is below sector average (0.61), suggesting moderate leverage
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 is extremely low, indicating poor financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising unquantified bankruptcy risk
- Low ROE (5.67%) and ROA (1.22%) suggest inefficient capital use
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield and payout ratio are both zero
- No history of dividend payments
- No indication of future dividend intent
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$4.66
Analyst Target
$5.0
Upside/Downside
+7.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ALTO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALTO
Alto Ingredients, Inc.
Primary
|
-18.0% | +142.7% | +253.0% | +294.9% | +68.2% | +6.2% |
|
IONR
ioneer Ltd
Peer
|
-79.0% | -55.1% | +11.8% | -40.0% | -3.1% | -5.8% |
|
NVA
Nova Minerals Limited
Peer
|
+577.1% | +577.1% | +160.0% | -40.5% | +1.4% | +4.2% |
|
ASIX
AdvanSix Inc.
Peer
|
-19.6% | -57.0% | -44.5% | -20.6% | -0.2% | +0.4% |
|
GORO
Gold Resource Corporation
Peer
|
-39.8% | +76.1% | +326.3% | +116.0% | +39.7% | -2.4% |
ALT
Alto Ingredients, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-18.0%
3Y
+142.7%
1Y
+253.0%
6M
+294.9%
1M
+68.2%
1W
+6.2%
ION
ioneer Ltd
Peer
5Y
-79.0%
3Y
-55.1%
1Y
+11.8%
6M
-40.0%
1M
-3.1%
1W
-5.8%
NVA
Nova Minerals Limited
Peer
5Y
+577.1%
3Y
+577.1%
1Y
+160.0%
6M
-40.5%
1M
+1.4%
1W
+4.2%
ASI
AdvanSix Inc.
Peer
5Y
-19.6%
3Y
-57.0%
1Y
-44.5%
6M
-20.6%
1M
-0.2%
1W
+0.4%
GOR
Gold Resource Corporation
Peer
5Y
-39.8%
3Y
+76.1%
1Y
+326.3%
6M
+116.0%
1M
+39.7%
1W
-2.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
29.12
Forward P/E
13.31
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.47
P/S Ratio
0.39
EV/Revenue
0.47
EV/EBITDA
13.21
Market Cap
$360.42M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
1.45%
Operating Margin
3.57%
Gross Margin
3.8%
ROE
5.67%
ROA
1.22%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-1.9%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.4
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.64
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.46
Good
Cash/Share
$0.3
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-03-04
$0.28
+1500.0% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.16
+392.9% surprise
2025-08-06
$-0.13
-23.2% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing ALTO against 143 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(14 bullish, 54 neutral, 75 bearish)
P/E Ratio
29.12
This Stock
vs
38.86
Sector Avg
-25.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.67%
This Stock
vs
-6.64%
Sector Avg
-185.4%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
1.45%
This Stock
vs
-5.75%
Sector Avg
-125.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.4
This Stock
vs
0.89
Sector Avg
-55.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-1.9%
This Stock
vs
36.56%
Sector Avg
-105.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.64
This Stock
vs
5.16
Sector Avg
-48.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALTO
Alto Ingredients, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $360.42M | 29.12 | 5.7% | 1.5% | $4.66 | |
|
IONR
ioneer Ltd
|
BEARISH | $296.73M | - | -% | -% | $3.7 | Compare |
|
NVA
Nova Minerals Limited
|
BEARISH | $275.36M | - | -15.6% | -% | $6.5 | Compare |
|
ASIX
AdvanSix Inc.
|
BEARISH | $458.57M | 8.89 | 6.6% | 3.5% | $17.07 | Compare |
|
GORO
Gold Resource Corporation
|
BEARISH | $262.21M | - | -18.1% | -6.5% | $1.62 | Compare |
ALTO
Alto Ingredients, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$360M
P/E
29.1
ROE
5.7%
Price
$4.66
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ALTO from our newsroom.
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