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APOG Apogee Enterprises, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH
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APOG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Industrials Building Products & Equipment
Current Price Live
$33.27
Analyst Target
$43.33
+30.2% Upside
52W High
$49.99
52W Low
$30.75

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
APOG demonstrates strong deterministic health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating solid operational efficiency and financial stability, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk. The stock trades at a premium to its Graham Number ($31.67) and intrinsic value ($13.09), suggesting overvaluation despite a relatively low P/E (17.79) and attractive forward P/E (10.48). However, the company faces significant headwinds with negative year-over-year earnings growth (-19.8%) and a deteriorating technical trend (0/100), while insider activity remains neutral. Analysts show no consensus, and the 1-year price decline of 26.6% reflects persistent market skepticism.

Key Strengths

Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and operational efficiency
Attractive forward P/E of 10.48 suggests potential undervaluation based on future earnings
Consistent history of earnings beat rates (3/4 in last 4 quarters) and positive average surprise (+13.58%)
Healthy current ratio (1.90) and quick ratio (1.27) reflect solid short-term liquidity
Dividend yield of 3.24% with a sustainable payout ratio of 55.61% provides income appeal

Key Risks

Negative year-over-year earnings growth (-19.8%) and Q/Q decline (-21.2%) signal deteriorating profitability
Stock trades at $33.27, significantly above both Graham Number ($31.67) and intrinsic value ($13.09), indicating overvaluation
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), with 1-year return down 26.6% and 6-month return down 19.5%
No insider buying in last 6 months, with neutral net activity, suggesting lack of confidence from insiders
Absence of Altman Z-Score prevents assessment of bankruptcy risk, a critical gap for financial health
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$13.09
-60.7% below current price

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