ASTE Astec Industries, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BULLISH

ASTE Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NASDAQ • Industrials • Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Current Price Live

$62.09

Analyst Target

$75.5

+21.6% Upside

52W High

$64.37

52W Low

$29.65

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AI Analysis

Confidence Score

85%

Analysis Accuracy

ASTE's Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates a stable but not strong financial health, with no Altman Z-Score available to assess distress risk. The stock trades at a premium to its Graham Number ($37.43) and intrinsic value ($14.63), suggesting strong growth expectations are priced in. Despite a recent -43.8% YoY earnings decline, the company has shown consistent earnings beat rates (75% over last 4 quarters) and a high average surprise of 46.95%, signaling strong operational execution. The 1-year price return of +75.4% and strong analyst consensus (strong_buy) reflect market confidence in a recovery narrative. Insider activity remains neutral, but the technical trend is weak, indicating short-term caution.

Key Strengths

Consistent earnings beat rate (75% over last 4 quarters) with high average surprise (+46.95%)

Strong revenue growth (11.60% YoY) despite recent earnings contraction

Healthy current ratio (2.49) and moderate debt/equity (0.53) indicate solid liquidity and manageable leverage

High analyst consensus (strong_buy) with a target price of $75.50, implying upside potential

Significant recent EPS growth (Q/Q +125.5%) suggests improving profitability momentum

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4 is below the threshold for strong financial health (7-9), indicating underlying stability concerns

Negative YoY earnings growth (-43.8%) and recent quarterly losses (e.g., -101.6% surprise in 2023) signal profitability volatility

Stock trades at a significant premium to both Graham Number ($37.43) and intrinsic value ($14.63), increasing valuation risk

No available Altman Z-Score raises uncertainty about bankruptcy risk, especially given earnings instability

Technical trend is bearish (10/100), suggesting short-term price weakness despite long-term optimism

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$72.5

+16.8% above current price

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Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis

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