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NSSC

NEUTRAL
$44.21 Live
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $49.67 (+12.3%)
$21.14 52W Range $48.12

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 16, 2026
Market cap
$1.58B
P/E
33.49
ROE
26.4%
Profit margin
24.7%
Debt/Equity
0.12
Dividend yield
1.36%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
NSSC presents a dichotomy between exceptional operational health and concerning valuation/sentiment metrics. The company maintains a stable Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a fortress-like balance sheet with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.12 and a Current Ratio of 7.99. However, the stock is significantly overvalued relative to its Graham Number ($12.41) and is currently trading above its growth-based intrinsic value ($38.94). Strong earnings growth and profitability are currently offset by heavy insider selling by the CEO and a very bearish technical trend.

Key Strengths

Exceptional liquidity with a Current Ratio of 7.99
Very low financial leverage (Debt/Equity 0.12)
Strong profitability margins (Gross Margin 56.58%, Profit Margin 24.70%)
Consistent earnings beat track record with high average surprises (24.51%)
Robust Return on Equity (ROE) of 26.42%

Key Risks

Extreme valuation premiums (Price/Book 8.53, Price/Sales 8.21)
Strongly bearish insider activity with $15.4M in CEO/Officer sales
Technical trend is heavily bearish (10/100)
Current price ($44.21) exceeds the growth-based intrinsic value ($38.94)
Low dividend yield (1.36%) offers minimal cushion for price corrections
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$38.94
-11.9% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
65
Strong
Value
30
Future
80
Past
90
Health
75
Dividend
50
AI Verdict
Quality at a Premium
Key drivers: Fortress balance sheet, Strong earnings growth, Excessive valuation, Negative insider sentiment
Confidence
90%
Value
30/100

Stock trades at a significant premium to both book value and defensive fair value.

Positives
  • High ROE
Watchpoints
  • P/B of 8.53
  • P/E of 33.49
  • Price far exceeds Graham Number of $12.41
Future
80/100

Strong earnings momentum suggests continued operational growth.

Positives
  • 21.4% YoY Earnings Growth
  • 12.2% Q/Q Revenue Growth
  • Consistent EPS surprises
Watchpoints
  • Modest YoY Revenue growth (7.6%)
Past
90/100

Exceptional historical price performance and earnings reliability.

Positives
  • 1-Year return of +107.4%
  • Consistent earnings progression over 25 quarters
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Health
75/100

Balance sheet is exceptionally strong, though F-Score indicates only stable health.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity 0.12
  • Current Ratio 7.99
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (Stable but not strong)
Dividend
50/100

Dividend is safe but not a primary driver for investors.

Positives
  • Sustainable payout ratio (41.29%)
Watchpoints
  • Low yield (1.36%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$44.21
Analyst Target
$49.67
Upside/Downside
+12.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NSSC and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-15
NSS
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+176.7%
3Y
+36.4%
1Y
+107.4%
6M
+2.3%
1M
+3.2%
1W
+3.8%
BLB
Blue Bird Corporation
Peer
5Y
+124.7%
3Y
+226.8%
1Y
+27.2%
6M
+7.6%
1M
-4.4%
1W
+1.1%
EOS
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-73.2%
3Y
+49.0%
1Y
+39.1%
6M
-69.0%
1M
-25.6%
1W
-8.0%
RCA
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+218.0%
3Y
+1279.6%
1Y
+147.9%
6M
+8.3%
1M
-25.2%
1W
+2.8%
AMS
American Superconductor Corporation
Peer
5Y
+20.7%
3Y
+535.7%
1Y
+66.4%
6M
-44.9%
1M
-9.5%
1W
+12.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
33.49
Forward P/E
27.46
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
8.53
P/S Ratio
8.21
EV/Revenue
8.09
EV/EBITDA
28.48
Market Cap
$1.58B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 24.7%
Operating Margin 17.81%
Gross Margin 56.58%
ROE 26.42%
ROA 15.72%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +7.6%
Earnings Growth +21.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +12.2%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +20.6%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.12
Low debt
Current Ratio
7.99
Strong
Quick Ratio
6.37
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.95

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.0B
Gross Margin
58.6%
Op. Margin
30.6%
Net Margin
28.0%
Total Assets
$0.2B
Liabilities
$0.0B
Equity
$0.2B
Debt/Equity
0.15x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
96%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-04
$N/A
2026-02-02
$0.37
+19.4% surprise
2025-11-03
$0.35
+15.2% surprise
2025-08-25
$0.36
+38.9% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing NSSC against 294 companies in the Industrials sector (21 bullish, 101 neutral, 172 bearish)
P/E Ratio
33.49
This Stock
vs
80.8
Sector Avg
-58.5% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
26.42%
This Stock
vs
-20.62%
Sector Avg
-228.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
24.7%
This Stock
vs
10.86%
Sector Avg
+127.3% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.12
This Stock
vs
2.99
Sector Avg
-95.8% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
7.6%
This Stock
vs
105.56%
Sector Avg
-92.8% (Slower)
Current Ratio
7.99
This Stock
vs
3.12
Sector Avg
+155.7% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

SPINELLI STEPHEN M
Officer
Option Exercise
2026-03-17
13,972 shares · $139,999
SOLOWAY RICHARD L
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-03-03
185,000 shares · $8,225,237
CARRIERI MICHAEL
Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-26
10,000 shares · $224,950
BUCHEL KEVIN S
President
Option Exercise
2026-02-19
50,000 shares · $1,124,750
SOLOWAY RICHARD L
Chief Executive Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-10
108,000 shares · $2,465,020
SOLOWAY RICHARD L
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-02-05
150,000 shares · $6,411,000
SPINELLI STEPHEN M
Officer
Sell
2025-11-17
19,000 shares · $764,750
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-02-04
Maintains
Buy Buy
DA Davidson
2026-02-03
Maintains
Buy Buy
Needham
2026-02-03
Maintains
Buy Buy
Needham
2025-11-20
reit
Buy Buy
TD Cowen
2025-11-04
up
Hold Buy
Needham
2025-11-04
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning NSSC from our newsroom.

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