OLLI
NEUTRAL
$95.23
Live
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $139.27
(+46.2%)
$88.44
52W Range
$141.74
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 16, 2026
Market cap
$5.84B
P/E
24.48
ROE
13.4%
Profit margin
9.1%
Debt/Equity
0.36
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
OLLI presents a dichotomy between strong fundamental growth and bearish market sentiment. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial health, while the current price of $95.23 sits comfortably between the conservative Graham Number ($52.01) and the growth-based Intrinsic Value ($114.76). Despite impressive YoY revenue growth of 16.8% and earnings growth of 25.6%, the stock is facing severe technical headwinds and negative insider sentiment. The valuation is attractive relative to the sector average P/E, but the immediate trend suggests a period of consolidation or further decline before growth is repriced.
Key Strengths
Strong top-line and bottom-line growth (Revenue +16.8%, Earnings +25.6%)
Low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36
High liquidity with a Current Ratio of 2.41
P/E ratio (24.48) is lower than the sector average (31.24)
Consistent history of earnings beats over the last several years
Key Risks
Severe technical downtrend (1-month change -10.7%, 6-month change -24.5%)
Bearish insider activity with multiple officer/director sales
Low Quick Ratio (0.75) indicating heavy reliance on inventory liquidation
Zero dividend yield provides no floor for long-term income investors
Significant gap between defensive fair value (Graham) and current market price
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$108.38
+13.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
54
Moderate
65
88
55
60
0
AI Verdict
Fundamental Growth vs. Technical Decay
Key drivers: High earnings growth, Low debt, Bearish price action, Insider selling
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 18.61 is attractive
- Trading below growth-based intrinsic value
Watchpoints
- Trades at a significant premium to the Graham Number ($52.01)
Future
88/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong YoY revenue and earnings growth
- Positive analyst target price of $139.27
Watchpoints
- Macroeconomic sensitivity of discount retail
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong 3-year growth (+57.4%)
Watchpoints
- Poor 1-year performance (-16.8%)
- Recent quarterly earnings misses (2/4)
Health
60/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Low Debt/Equity
- Strong Current Ratio
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only 'Stable', not 'Strong'
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$95.23
Analyst Target
$139.27
Upside/Downside
+46.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OLLI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-15
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
-0.5% | +57.4% | -16.8% | -24.5% | -10.7% | -2.1% |
|
PSMT
PriceSmart, Inc.
Peer
|
+98.9% | +121.2% | +74.5% | +33.4% | +14.4% | +3.0% |
|
AKO-B
Embotelladora Andina S.A.
Peer
|
+198.5% | +156.0% | +67.2% | +38.1% | +12.6% | +2.4% |
|
LAUR
Laureate Education, Inc.
Peer
|
+434.7% | +200.8% | +73.1% | +14.0% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
|
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
Peer
|
+48.4% | +38.4% | -4.8% | -20.2% | +1.1% | -4.0% |
OLL
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-0.5%
3Y
+57.4%
1Y
-16.8%
6M
-24.5%
1M
-10.7%
1W
-2.1%
PSM
PriceSmart, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+98.9%
3Y
+121.2%
1Y
+74.5%
6M
+33.4%
1M
+14.4%
1W
+3.0%
AKO
Embotelladora Andina S.A.
Peer
5Y
+198.5%
3Y
+156.0%
1Y
+67.2%
6M
+38.1%
1M
+12.6%
1W
+2.4%
LAU
Laureate Education, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+434.7%
3Y
+200.8%
1Y
+73.1%
6M
+14.0%
1M
-1.2%
1W
-1.9%
LOP
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+48.4%
3Y
+38.4%
1Y
-4.8%
6M
-20.2%
1M
+1.1%
1W
-4.0%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
24.48
Forward P/E
18.61
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.08
P/S Ratio
2.2
EV/Revenue
2.34
EV/EBITDA
17.55
Market Cap
$5.84B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
9.08%
Operating Margin
14.0%
Gross Margin
40.5%
ROE
13.43%
ROA
6.74%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+16.8%
Earnings Growth
+25.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+16.82%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+24.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.36
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.41
Strong
Quick Ratio
0.75
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.86
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026
Revenue
$0.8B
Gross Margin
39.9%
Op. Margin
14.3%
Net Margin
11.0%
Total Assets
$3.0B
Liabilities
$1.1B
Equity
$1.9B
Debt/Equity
0.57x
Operating CF
$0.2B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.2B
FCF Yield
90%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-06-02
$N/A
2026-03-12
$1.39
-1.1% surprise
2025-12-09
$0.75
+2.4% surprise
2025-08-28
$0.99
+6.8% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing OLLI against 108 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(6 bullish, 44 neutral, 58 bearish)
P/E Ratio
24.48
This Stock
vs
35.51
Sector Avg
-31.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
13.43%
This Stock
vs
-21.08%
Sector Avg
-163.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
9.08%
This Stock
vs
-6.85%
Sector Avg
-232.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.36
This Stock
vs
1.53
Sector Avg
-76.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
16.8%
This Stock
vs
172.71%
Sector Avg
-90.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.41
This Stock
vs
2.32
Sector Avg
+3.9%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet...
|
NEUTRAL | $5.84B | 24.48 | 13.4% | 9.1% | $95.23 | |
|
PSMT
PriceSmart, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.0B | 30.87 | 12.4% | 2.8% | $161.78 | Compare |
|
AKO-B
Embotelladora Andina S.A.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.85B | 16.44 | 24.7% | 7.9% | $30.75 | Compare |
|
LAUR
Laureate Education, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $4.7B | 17.41 | 26.4% | 16.5% | $32.91 | Compare |
|
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.64B | 21.5 | 28.2% | 19.5% | $165.76 | Compare |
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.8B
P/E
24.5
ROE
13.4%
Price
$95.23
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | SWYGERT JOHN W | Officer and Director | Sale | 3,330 | $319,014 |
| 2026-04-01 | AHLMAN ALISSA M | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | HELM ROBERT FRANCIS | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,354 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | COMITALE JAMES J | General Counsel | Stock Award | 1,249 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | KRAUS LAWRENCE W | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 1,249 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | VAN DER VALK ERIC L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 1,853 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | RIZVI ABID | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | ZENDER CHRISTOPHER | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 764 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | BAGLIVO MARY L. | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | MCLAIN KEVIN C | Officer | Stock Award | 1,388 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | ZANNINO RICHARD F | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | HENDRICKSON THOMAS T | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | WHITE STEPHEN W | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | FLEISHMAN STANLEY | Director | Stock Award | 1,091 | - |
| 2026-04-01 | SWYGERT JOHN W | Officer and Director | Stock Award | 5,894 | - |
SWYGERT JOHN W
Officer and Director
2026-04-07
3,330 shares
·
$319,014
AHLMAN ALISSA M
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
HELM ROBERT FRANCIS
Chief Financial Officer
2026-04-01
2,354 shares
COMITALE JAMES J
General Counsel
2026-04-01
1,249 shares
KRAUS LAWRENCE W
Chief Technology Officer
2026-04-01
1,249 shares
VAN DER VALK ERIC L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-04-01
1,853 shares
RIZVI ABID
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
ZENDER CHRISTOPHER
Chief Operating Officer
2026-04-01
764 shares
BAGLIVO MARY L.
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
MCLAIN KEVIN C
Officer
2026-04-01
1,388 shares
ZANNINO RICHARD F
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
HENDRICKSON THOMAS T
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
WHITE STEPHEN W
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
FLEISHMAN STANLEY
Director
2026-04-01
1,091 shares
SWYGERT JOHN W
Officer and Director
2026-04-01
5,894 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
15 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-13
Overweight
Overweight
Jefferies
2026-04-02
Hold
Buy
Piper Sandler
2026-03-13
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2026-03-13
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
RBC Capital
2026-03-13
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-03-13
Equal-Weight
Overweight
Loop Capital
2025-12-22
Hold
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-19
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-10
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning OLLI from our newsroom.
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