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PROV

NEUTRAL
$17.04 Live
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $16.0 (-6.1%)
$14.02 52W Range $17.34

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 18, 2026
Market cap
$108.63M
P/E
17.21
ROE
5.2%
Profit margin
16.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
3.27%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
PROV presents a classic deep-value profile, trading at a significant discount to its Graham Number ($21.04) and Intrinsic Value ($29.2). While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial health, the company is struggling with execution, having missed earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters with an average surprise of -18.75%. Strong YoY earnings growth is currently offset by a bearish technical trend, insider selling, and high geographic concentration in Southern California real estate. The stock is fundamentally undervalued but lacks a near-term catalyst for price appreciation.

Key Strengths

Trading below book value (P/B 0.86)
Significant discount to Graham Number and Intrinsic Value
Strong YoY earnings growth of 70.20%
Sustainable dividend payout ratio of 56.57%
Positive long-term price performance (5Y Change +22.6%)

Key Risks

High geographic concentration (64% of real estate loans in Southern California)
Consistent failure to meet earnings expectations (0/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
Bearish technical trend (10/100) and insider selling
Very low Return on Assets (ROA 0.53%) and Return on Equity (ROE 5.15%)
Exposure to regional macroeconomic volatility and immigration policy shifts
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$23.14
+35.8% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
56
Moderate
Value
85
Future
40
Past
50
Health
45
Dividend
60
AI Verdict
Value-Driven but Execution-Lagging
Key drivers: Deep discount to book and intrinsic value, Consistent earnings misses, High regional risk concentration
Confidence
80%
Value
85/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • P/B 0.86
  • Price below Graham Number ($21.04)
  • Price below Intrinsic Value ($29.2)
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 17.21 is moderate for a regional bank
Future
40/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • High YoY earnings growth (70.20%)
Watchpoints
  • 0/4 earnings beats in last year
  • Slowing Q/Q revenue growth (2.47%)
Past
50/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Positive 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y price returns
Watchpoints
  • Average earnings surprise of -18.75% over last 4 quarters
Health
45/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stability
Watchpoints
  • Very low ROE (5.15%) and ROA (0.53%)
Dividend
60/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • 3.27% yield
  • Manageable payout ratio (56.57%)
Watchpoints
  • Dividend strength score is only 50/100

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$17.04
Analyst Target
$16.0
Upside/Downside
-6.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for PROV and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-17
PRO
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+22.6%
3Y
+42.0%
1Y
+23.0%
6M
+10.5%
1M
+7.0%
1W
-0.5%
MRC
Monroe Capital Corporation
Peer
5Y
-15.6%
3Y
-7.0%
1Y
-20.3%
6M
-24.5%
1M
+11.4%
1W
+4.5%
BSB
Bogota Financial Corp.
Peer
5Y
-12.5%
3Y
-12.1%
1Y
+23.3%
6M
-5.8%
1M
+5.1%
1W
+4.4%
HSD
Solana Company
Peer
5Y
-100.0%
3Y
-100.0%
1Y
-99.2%
6M
-87.1%
1M
-13.7%
1W
+1.6%
DFD
DeFi Development Corp.
Peer
5Y
-20.5%
3Y
-20.5%
1Y
-35.6%
6M
-77.2%
1M
-10.6%
1W
+5.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
17.21
Forward P/E
13.01
PEG Ratio
4.0
P/B Ratio
0.86
P/S Ratio
2.66
EV/Revenue
6.61
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$108.63M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 16.18%
Operating Margin 24.41%
Gross Margin N/A
ROE 5.15%
ROA 0.53%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +10.9%
Earnings Growth +70.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +2.47%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +64.7%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$8.53

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.0B
Net Margin
14.6%
Total Assets
$1.2B
Liabilities
$1.1B
Equity
$0.1B
Debt/Equity
8.63x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
85%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-27
$N/A
2026-01-27
$0.22
-26.7% surprise
2025-10-28
$0.25
-13.8% surprise
2025-07-28
$0.24
-15.8% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing PROV against 497 companies in the Financial Services sector (90 bullish, 207 neutral, 200 bearish)
P/E Ratio
17.21
This Stock
vs
45.37
Sector Avg
-62.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.15%
This Stock
vs
0.05%
Sector Avg
+11066.7% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
16.18%
This Stock
vs
48.99%
Sector Avg
-67.0% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
10.9%
This Stock
vs
36.6%
Sector Avg
-70.2% (Slower)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

WERTZ GWENDOLYN L
Officer
Sell
2025-11-12
4,800 shares · $75,072
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-17

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PROV) filed an 8-K on April 17, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-02-06

As of December 31, 2025, Provident Financial Holdings reported net loans held for investment of $1.038 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $54.37 million. The company's allowance for credit losses decreased to $5.6 million from $6.4 million as of June 30, 2025. Financial risk is indicated by significant asset pledges to the Federal Home Loan Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, totaling approximately $952 million.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-27

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PROV) filed an 8-K on January 27, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-23

Provident Financial Services, Inc. filed an 8-K on January 23, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-23

Provident Financial Services, Inc. filed an 8-K on January 23, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-21
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-07

As of September 30, 2025, Provident Financial Holdings reported loans held for investment of $1.04 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $49.4 million, with the allowance for credit losses decreasing slightly to $5.8 million. A primary financial risk is the high level of encumbrance on its assets, with approximately $954 million in loans pledged to the Federal Home Loan Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-28

Provident Financial Services, Inc. filed an 8-K likely to report its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-24

Provident Financial Services, Inc. filed an 8-K likely reporting its third-quarter financial results for 2025.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-10-20

PROV filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on October 20, 2025, providing shareholders with the necessary information to vote on matters at the company's annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2025-08-29
8-K
8-K
2025-07-28
8-K
8-K
2025-07-25
8-K
8-K
2025-05-23
8-K
8-K
2025-05-13
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
1 analysts
Piper Sandler
2025-10-30
Maintains
Neutral Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning PROV from our newsroom.

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