TSLA Tesla, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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TSLA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Consumer Cyclical
Auto Manufacturers
Current Price
Live
$437.5
Analyst Target
$411.15
-6.0%
Downside
52W High
$498.83
52W Low
$214.25
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$1.46T
P/E
301.72
ROE
6.8%
Profit margin
5.3%
Debt/Equity
0.17
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
Tesla's financial health is weak with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite strong revenue growth and solid balance sheet metrics like low debt/equity and healthy liquidity ratios, profitability is deteriorating, with declining earnings growth and widening negative surprises in recent quarters. Valuation multiples are extremely elevated relative to peers and fundamentals, while insider selling and weak technical trends signal negative sentiment. The stock trades at a massive premium to both Graham-based and growth-based intrinsic value estimates, suggesting significant overvaluation.
Key Strengths
Strong liquidity position with current ratio of 2.07 and quick ratio of 1.49
Low leverage with debt/equity ratio of 0.17, well below sector average
Revenue growth of 11.6% YoY remains positive in a challenging auto environment
Market leadership in EVs with dominant brand and scalable production infrastructure
Operating cash flow generation remains positive despite earnings volatility
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates weak financial health and raises sustainability concerns
Earnings growth declining sharply at -37.1% YoY with consistent negative EPS surprises in 3 of last 4 quarters
Extremely high valuation: P/E of 301.72 and forward P/E of 201.28 far exceed sector and historical norms
Insider selling activity: $129.09M in net sales over last 6 months signals lack of confidence
Technical trend score of 10/100 indicates strong bearish momentum near-term
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$28.02
-93.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
29
Weak
18
35
40
52
0
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals and negative momentum
Key drivers: High P/E and forward P/E, Weak earnings growth, Poor recent earnings surprises, Bearish insider activity, Low technical trend score
Confidence
80%
Value
18/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- P/E of 301.72 is extremely high
- Forward P/E of 201.28 remains elevated
- Price/Book of 18.19 and Price/Sales of 15.21 indicate rich valuation
- Current price ($437.50) is 1,461% above Graham Number ($28.02)
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 11.6% YoY is above sector average
- Q/Q EPS growth of +25.0% shows some recent improvement
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth down -37.1% YoY
- Q/Q earnings growth down -36.8%
- PEG Ratio not available due to earnings volatility
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings surprises in 2020–2022
- Long-term 5Y return of +55.4% outperforms market
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters missed estimates 3 out of 4 times
- Average earnings surprise of -15.46% over last 4 quarters
- 1Y price return of +5.7% lags sector momentum
Health
52/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.07 indicates good short-term liquidity
- Quick ratio of 1.49 supports near-term obligations
- Debt/equity of 0.17 is very low
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- ROE of 6.79% is below sector average of 14.05%
- ROA of 2.35% is low for capital-intensive auto sector
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk analysis
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend policy
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
- Payout ratio is 0%, but no yield provided
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$437.5
Analyst Target
$411.15
Upside/Downside
-6.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for TSLA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Primary
|
+55.4% | +232.7% | +5.7% | +32.7% | -6.4% | -1.7% |
|
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
Peer
|
+34.8% | +118.9% | +7.1% | -9.0% | +1.8% | -2.6% |
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Peer
|
-30.2% | +52.7% | +104.6% | +44.3% | +15.4% | +4.7% |
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
Peer
|
+57.2% | +25.3% | -4.8% | +7.1% | +6.6% | +1.5% |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
Peer
|
+77.3% | +72.2% | +30.0% | +37.2% | +8.0% | +4.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
301.72
Forward P/E
201.28
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
18.19
P/S Ratio
15.21
EV/Revenue
14.93
EV/EBITDA
132.62
Market Cap
$1.46T
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
5.31%
Operating Margin
6.63%
Gross Margin
17.01%
ROE
6.79%
ROA
2.35%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+11.6%
Earnings Growth
-37.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-36.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.17
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.07
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.49
Good
Cash/Share
$12.52
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-28
$N/A
2025-10-22
$0.5
-10.5% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.4
-1.0% surprise
2025-04-22
$0.27
-34.9% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing TSLA against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
301.72
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
+602.2%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.79%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+12.8%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
5.31%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+581.5%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.17
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
-89.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
11.6%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
+51.7%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
2.07
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
+9.8%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.46T | 301.72 | 6.8% | 5.3% | $437.5 | |
|
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.23T | 29.0 | 22.3% | 10.8% | $207.67 | |
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $413.56B | 23.6 | 11.2% | 12.2% | $173.23 | |
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $378.46B | 25.91 | 162.9% | 8.8% | $380.17 | |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $303.04B | 10.38 | 12.9% | 9.4% | $231.42 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | Sale | 60,000 | $26,723,781 |
| 2025-12-30 | MUSK ELON REEVE | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 210,699 | - |
| 2025-12-09 | MUSK KIMBAL J | Director | Sale | 56,820 | $25,606,501 |
| 2025-12-09 | MUSK KIMBAL J | Director | Gift | 15,242 | - |
| 2025-12-08 | TANEJA VAIBHAV | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 2,637 | $1,170,635 |
| 2025-12-05 | TANEJA VAIBHAV | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 6,538 | - |
| 2025-11-10 | MUSK KIMBAL J | Director | Gift | 14,785 | - |
| 2025-09-15 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | Sale | 60,000 | $25,360,800 |
| 2025-09-12 | MUSK ELON REEVE | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 2,568,732 | $999,959,042 |
| 2025-09-11 | ZHU XIAOTONG | Officer | Sale | 20,000 | $7,275,100 |
| 2025-09-08 | TANEJA VAIBHAV | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 2,605 | $918,137 |
| 2025-09-05 | TANEJA VAIBHAV | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 6,538 | - |
| 2025-08-26 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | Sale | 120,000 | $42,034,320 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
40 analysts
UBS
2026-01-14
Sell
Sell
Wells Fargo
2026-01-12
Underweight
Underweight
GLJ Research
2026-01-07
Sell
Sell
Truist Securities
2026-01-02
Hold
Hold
Baird
2025-12-30
Outperform
Outperform
Canaccord Genuity
2025-12-23
Buy
Buy
Deutsche Bank
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-12-19
Hold
Hold
Wedbush
2025-12-15
Outperform
Outperform
Piper Sandler
2025-12-09
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning TSLA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.