BABA
NEUTRAL
$173.23
Live
Alibaba Group Holding Limited · NYSE
Target $196.49
(+13.4%)
$89.22
52W Range
$192.67
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$413.56B
P/E
23.6
ROE
11.2%
Profit margin
12.2%
Debt/Equity
0.27
Dividend yield
0.59%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile for Alibaba (BABA), with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating suboptimal financial health, and no available Altman Z-Score limiting distress risk assessment. While valuation metrics appear favorable relative to peers—especially a Price/Sales of 0.41 and Forward P/E of 19.50—earnings growth is sharply negative (YoY EPS down 71%), and recent quarterly beats have reversed into consistent misses over the last four quarters. Strong insider sentiment and a bullish analyst consensus (strong_buy) contrast with deteriorating profitability and weak technical trends (10/100). The stock trades significantly above the Graham Number ($102.68) and intrinsic value estimate ($51.38), suggesting overvaluation unless growth rebounds materially.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation multiples relative to sector: P/E (23.60) and Price/Sales (0.41) well below sector averages (Avg P/E: 49.05, Avg P/S: N/A but implied high)
Low debt burden with Debt/Equity of 0.27, well below sector average of 1.63, providing financial flexibility
Strong gross margin of 41.17%, reflecting pricing power and operational efficiency in core e-commerce
High cash conversion with ROE of 11.19% and ROA of 4.03%, above sector average ROE (9.52%) despite recent earnings decline
Bullish analyst sentiment: 42 analysts rate it 'strong_buy', suggesting confidence in turnaround or recovery
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals deteriorating financial health—penalizes health score per instructions
Earnings in freefall: YoY EPS growth down 71.0%, Q/Q down 70.4%, with last four quarters missing estimates by an average of -10.5%
Operating margin collapsed to 2.17%, indicating severe pressure in profitability despite stable gross margins
Technical trend is deeply bearish (10/100), suggesting negative momentum and weak near-term price action
Missing key financial data (EV, shares outstanding, cash/debt, ROIC, FCF) limits confidence in full health assessment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$102.68
-40.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
50
Moderate
75
30
55
40
50
AI Verdict
Cautiously Neutral – Strong valuation and balance sheet offset by collapsing earnings and weak technicals
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score (4/9), Negative earnings momentum (YoY -71%), Valuation discount to peers, Strong analyst consensus, Bullish long-term price performance (1Y +104.6%)
Confidence
70%
Value
75/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 19.50 below sector average (49.05)
- Price/Sales of 0.41 indicates deep discount to revenue
- Graham Number ($102.68) suggests downside protection
Watchpoints
- Current price ($173.23) trades at 69% premium to Graham Number
- Intrinsic value ($51.38) far below market, implying speculative premium
Future
30/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target price of $196.49 implies 13% upside
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth sluggish at 4.80% YoY
- Earnings growth collapsing: -51.80% YoY, -71% in latest quarter
- PEG Ratio unavailable due to negative earnings
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings beats (15 of last 25 quarters beat)
- 5-year price recovery: +52.7% over 3Y, +104.6% over 1Y
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters all missed estimates
- EPS growth trajectory sharply downward since 2023
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current Ratio of 1.46 indicates short-term liquidity adequacy
- Debt/Equity of 0.27 shows conservative leverage
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick Ratio of 0.84 < 1.0 signals potential liquidity strain
- No Altman Z-Score available—critical data gap
Dividend
50/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 14.40% indicates dividend sustainability
- Dividend yield stable at 0.59%
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength rated only 25/100—weak relative to income stocks
- No 5-year yield average available—lack of consistency data
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$173.23
Analyst Target
$196.49
Upside/Downside
+13.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BABA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Primary
|
-30.2% | +52.7% | +104.6% | +44.3% | +15.4% | +4.7% |
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
Peer
|
+20.8% | +20.2% | -8.0% | -17.8% | -10.7% | -0.6% |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
Peer
|
+52.0% | +55.9% | +20.2% | +9.3% | -13.9% | -0.6% |
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Peer
|
+50.4% | +16.7% | +0.2% | +3.4% | -7.7% | -1.4% |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+163.2% | +113.2% | +33.1% | +12.5% | +0.9% | +1.1% |
BAB
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Primary
5Y
-30.2%
3Y
+52.7%
1Y
+104.6%
6M
+44.3%
1M
+15.4%
1W
+4.7%
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+20.8%
3Y
+20.2%
1Y
-8.0%
6M
-17.8%
1M
-10.7%
1W
-0.6%
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
Peer
5Y
+52.0%
3Y
+55.9%
1Y
+20.2%
6M
+9.3%
1M
-13.9%
1W
-0.6%
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Peer
5Y
+50.4%
3Y
+16.7%
1Y
+0.2%
6M
+3.4%
1M
-7.7%
1W
-1.4%
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+163.2%
3Y
+113.2%
1Y
+33.1%
6M
+12.5%
1M
+0.9%
1W
+1.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
23.6
Forward P/E
19.5
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.71
P/S Ratio
0.41
EV/Revenue
3.18
EV/EBITDA
20.1
Market Cap
$413.56B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
12.19%
Operating Margin
2.17%
Gross Margin
41.17%
ROE
11.19%
ROA
4.03%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+4.8%
Earnings Growth
-51.8%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-52.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.27
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.46
Good
Quick Ratio
0.84
Poor
Cash/Share
$20.14
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-19
$N/A
2025-11-25
$4.36
-24.6% surprise
2025-08-29
$14.75
-4.7% surprise
2025-05-15
$12.52
-2.3% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing BABA against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
23.6
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
-30.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
11.19%
This Stock
vs
-43.92%
Sector Avg
-125.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.19%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-325.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.27
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-82.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.8%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-83.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.46
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-40.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $413.56B | 23.6 | 11.2% | 12.2% | $173.23 | |
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $327.58B | 23.1 | 145.5% | 8.6% | $328.89 | Compare |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $273.37B | 11.84 | 10.0% | 7.3% | $209.75 | Compare |
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $219.28B | 25.67 | -% | 31.9% | $307.29 | Compare |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $179.69B | 33.15 | 59.1% | 9.1% | $161.46 | Compare |
BABA
Alibaba Group...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$413.6B
P/E
23.6
ROE
11.2%
Price
$173.23
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
42 analysts
Jefferies
2026-01-08
Buy
Buy
Freedom Capital Markets
2026-01-06
Buy
Hold
Citigroup
2025-11-26
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-11-26
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-11-26
Overweight
Overweight
Benchmark
2025-11-26
Buy
Buy
Bernstein
2025-11-26
Outperform
Outperform
Bernstein
2025-10-10
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-09
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-01
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BABA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.