UFCS
BULLISH
$39.46
Live
United Fire Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $40.5
(+2.6%)
$25.79
52W Range
$40.79
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 22, 2026
Market cap
$1.01B
P/E
8.81
ROE
13.7%
Profit margin
8.5%
Debt/Equity
0.17
Dividend yield
2.03%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
UFCS presents a compelling deep-value opportunity, trading significantly below both its Graham Number ($60.97) and estimated Intrinsic Value ($132.16). While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but not strong financial health, the company's low Debt/Equity ratio (0.17) and robust earnings growth (20% YoY) provide a strong fundamental cushion. Despite a bearish technical trend and recent insider selling, the valuation metrics (P/E 8.81, P/B 1.07) suggest the stock is heavily undervalued relative to its profitability and growth trajectory.
Key Strengths
Significant undervaluation relative to Graham Number ($60.97) and Intrinsic Value ($132.16)
Strong earnings growth (20% YoY) with a high average surprise rate (78.26%)
Very low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17
Attractive valuation multiples (P/E 8.81, P/S 0.73)
Highly sustainable dividend payout ratio (14.29%)
Key Risks
Strongly bearish technical trend (10/100) suggesting short-term momentum is negative
Recent insider selling activity (Net Bearish)
Low current ratio (0.68) and quick ratio (0.47), though common in insurance
Historical earnings volatility with significant misses in 2023
Limited analyst coverage (only 2 analysts) leading to low market visibility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$86.5
+119.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
74
Strong
95
82
70
60
65
AI Verdict
Strong Value Play
Key drivers: Deep discount to intrinsic value, Strong earnings beats, Low debt profile
Confidence
80%
Value
95/100
Ref P/E 8.81, PEG 1.41, Graham Number $60.97
Positives
- P/E of 8.81 is well below sector average
- Price is ~35% below Graham Number
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E is slightly higher than trailing P/E
Future
82/100
Ref Revenue Growth 9.80%, Earnings Growth 20.00%
Positives
- 20% YoY earnings growth
- Consistent quarterly beats (3/4 last 4 quarters)
Watchpoints
- PEG ratio of 1.41 suggests growth is not 'cheap' relative to P/E
Past
70/100
Ref 1Y Change +50%, Historical EPS track record
Positives
- Strong 1Y price performance (+50%)
Watchpoints
- High volatility in EPS surprises over the last 25 quarters
Health
60/100
Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9, Debt/Equity 0.17
Positives
- Very low Debt/Equity (0.17)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only 'Stable'
- Low liquidity ratios (Current Ratio 0.68)
Dividend
65/100
Ref Yield 2.03%, Payout 14.29%
Positives
- Very low payout ratio (14.29%) indicates high safety
Watchpoints
- Low dividend yield (2.03%)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$39.46
Analyst Target
$40.5
Upside/Downside
+2.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for UFCS and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-21
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UFCS
United Fire Group, Inc.
Primary
|
+38.1% | +56.0% | +50.0% | +27.4% | +5.3% | +0.4% |
|
BBN
BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust
Peer
|
-13.7% | +11.9% | +7.6% | +6.2% | -2.6% | -0.8% |
|
OXLC
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
Peer
|
-16.7% | -20.0% | -37.4% | -22.1% | +26.0% | +4.0% |
|
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
Peer
|
+42.7% | +35.9% | +30.9% | +29.6% | +10.4% | -1.5% |
|
ESQ
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+419.6% | +227.2% | +53.9% | +11.0% | +16.5% | +5.9% |
UFC
United Fire Group, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+38.1%
3Y
+56.0%
1Y
+50.0%
6M
+27.4%
1M
+5.3%
1W
+0.4%
BBN
BlackRock Taxable Municipal Bond Trust
Peer
5Y
-13.7%
3Y
+11.9%
1Y
+7.6%
6M
+6.2%
1M
-2.6%
1W
-0.8%
OXL
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
Peer
5Y
-16.7%
3Y
-20.0%
1Y
-37.4%
6M
-22.1%
1M
+26.0%
1W
+4.0%
AMT
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
Peer
5Y
+42.7%
3Y
+35.9%
1Y
+30.9%
6M
+29.6%
1M
+10.4%
1W
-1.5%
ESQ
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+419.6%
3Y
+227.2%
1Y
+53.9%
6M
+11.0%
1M
+16.5%
1W
+5.9%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
8.81
Forward P/E
10.58
PEG Ratio
1.41
P/B Ratio
1.07
P/S Ratio
0.73
EV/Revenue
0.73
EV/EBITDA
5.94
Market Cap
$1.01B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.53%
Operating Margin
14.05%
Gross Margin
11.48%
ROE
13.72%
ROA
2.71%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.8%
Earnings Growth
+20.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+10.38%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+22.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.17
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.68
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.47
Poor
Cash/Share
$6.12
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.4B
Net Margin
10.5%
Total Assets
$3.8B
Liabilities
$2.9B
Equity
$0.9B
Debt/Equity
3.08x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
99%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-10
$1.5
+65.8% surprise
2025-11-04
$1.5
+108.3% surprise
2025-08-05
$0.9
+60.7% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing UFCS against 586 companies in the Financial Services sector
(108 bullish, 244 neutral, 234 bearish)
P/E Ratio
8.81
This Stock
vs
41.27
Sector Avg
-78.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
13.72%
This Stock
vs
-0.07%
Sector Avg
-18845.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.53%
This Stock
vs
47.24%
Sector Avg
-82.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.17
This Stock
vs
1.35
Sector Avg
-87.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
9.8%
This Stock
vs
38.08%
Sector Avg
-74.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.68
This Stock
vs
3.64
Sector Avg
-81.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UFCS
United Fire Group, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $1.01B | 8.81 | 13.7% | 8.5% | $39.46 | |
|
BBN
BlackRock Taxable...
|
BEARISH | $1.0B | 19.11 | -% | -% | $16.24 | Compare |
|
OXLC
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.
|
BEARISH | $1.0B | 23.32 | 0.2% | 0.8% | $10.26 | Compare |
|
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $997.75M | 19.0 | 5.7% | 13.2% | $23.56 | Compare |
|
ESQ
Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $992.97M | 18.97 | 19.3% | 37.1% | $114.97 | Compare |
UFCS
United Fire Group, Inc.
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$1.0B
P/E
8.8
ROE
13.7%
Price
$39.46
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | DRAHOZAL CHRISTOPHER R | Director | Sale | 12,750 | $489,890 |
| 2026-03-02 | MCINTYRE DEE ANN | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 12,750 | $401,041 |
| 2026-02-24 | LEIDWINGER KEVIN JAMES | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 9,141 | $344,799 |
| 2026-02-24 | MARTIN ERIC J. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,212 | $83,437 |
| 2026-02-24 | MADSEN SARAH E. | Officer | Stock Award | 1,343 | $50,658 |
| 2026-02-24 | STEPHENSON JULIE A. | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 3,540 | $133,529 |
| 2026-02-20 | LEIDWINGER KEVIN JAMES | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 22,710 | $875,016 |
| 2026-02-20 | MARTIN ERIC J. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 7,660 | $295,140 |
| 2026-02-20 | MADSEN SARAH E. | Officer | Stock Award | 5,714 | $220,160 |
| 2026-02-20 | STEPHENSON JULIE A. | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 9,109 | $350,970 |
| 2026-02-20 | HERNANDEZ STEVEN DENNIS | Officer | Stock Award | 4,817 | $185,599 |
| 2026-02-20 | VOGT ADAM M | Officer | Stock Award | 1,570 | $60,492 |
| 2026-02-20 | RAWLINS BRIAN KEITH | Officer | Stock Award | 2,920 | $112,508 |
| 2025-12-22 | MILLIGAN GEORGE D | Director | Purchase | 427 | $13,883 |
| 2025-12-22 | CLANCY BRENDA KAY | Director | Purchase | - | - |
DRAHOZAL CHRISTOPHER R
Director
2026-03-04
12,750 shares
·
$489,890
MCINTYRE DEE ANN
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2026-03-02
12,750 shares
·
$401,041
LEIDWINGER KEVIN JAMES
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-24
9,141 shares
·
$344,799
MARTIN ERIC J.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-24
2,212 shares
·
$83,437
MADSEN SARAH E.
Officer
2026-02-24
1,343 shares
·
$50,658
STEPHENSON JULIE A.
Chief Operating Officer
2026-02-24
3,540 shares
·
$133,529
LEIDWINGER KEVIN JAMES
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-20
22,710 shares
·
$875,016
MARTIN ERIC J.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-20
7,660 shares
·
$295,140
MADSEN SARAH E.
Officer
2026-02-20
5,714 shares
·
$220,160
STEPHENSON JULIE A.
Chief Operating Officer
2026-02-20
9,109 shares
·
$350,970
HERNANDEZ STEVEN DENNIS
Officer
2026-02-20
4,817 shares
·
$185,599
VOGT ADAM M
Officer
2026-02-20
1,570 shares
·
$60,492
RAWLINS BRIAN KEITH
Officer
2026-02-20
2,920 shares
·
$112,508
MILLIGAN GEORGE D
Director
2025-12-22
427 shares
·
$13,883
CLANCY BRENDA KAY
Director
2025-12-22
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
DEF 14A
10-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
2 analysts
Jones Trading
2026-03-02
Buy
Buy
Piper Sandler
2026-02-12
Neutral
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2025-12-22
Neutral
Neutral
Jones Trading
2025-11-12
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning UFCS from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.