AIR AAR Corp. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AIR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense
Current Price
Live
$105.66
Analyst Target
$108.6
+2.8%
Upside
52W High
$107.82
52W Low
$46.51
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$4.18B
P/E
42.1
ROE
6.9%
Profit margin
3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.67
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals significant concerns, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicating poor financial health, and no Altman Z-Score available to confirm safety from distress. Despite strong recent earnings growth (YoY EPS +31.1%) and revenue momentum (15.90%), the stock trades at a steep valuation (P/E 42.10 vs. sector avg 50.40) far above its Graham Number of $47.52, suggesting substantial overvaluation. Insider activity is decisively bearish, with $14.56M in CEO and officer sales over the past six months, while the technical trend is deeply negative at 10/100. Analysts maintain a 'strong_buy' recommendation, but this contrasts sharply with deteriorating insider sentiment and stretched valuation metrics.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year EPS growth of 31.1% and consistent earnings beat rate (3 out of last 4 quarters)
Robust revenue growth of 15.90% YoY, in line with sector average of 16.58%
Healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 2.85, indicating solid short-term liquidity
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.67, below sector average of 1.56, suggesting conservative capital structure
Operating margin expansion to 8.51%, reflecting improving cost discipline
Key Risks
Very low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals weak financial health and potential deterioration in fundamentals
Current price of $105.66 is more than double the Graham Number ($47.52), indicating extreme overvaluation by defensive standards
Insiders have sold $14.56M in shares recently, including multiple sales by the CEO, signaling lack of confidence
Technical trend score of 10/100 suggests strong bearish momentum near-term
Dividend strength is 0/100 with no payout history, reducing investor appeal during volatility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$58.5
-44.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
37
Weak
25
68
52
30
10
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating financial health and negative insider signals despite strong recent earnings growth.
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score (3/9), Price significantly above Graham Number, Bearish insider activity, High P/E relative to intrinsic value, Strong recent EPS growth
Confidence
75%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 19.17 is below current P/E of 42.10, suggesting expected earnings improvement
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 42.10 is extremely high
- Price ($105.66) is 122% above Graham Number ($47.52)
- No PEG ratio to justify growth premium
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 15.90% YoY
- EPS growth of 31.1% YoY
- Consistent earnings beats (3 of last 4 quarters)
Watchpoints
- No forward earnings growth data available
- Forward P/E still elevated despite improvement
Past
52/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +186.7% shows strong historical performance
- Long streak of positive earnings surprises
Watchpoints
- Recent technical trend weakening (10/100)
- Earnings growth volatility in earlier quarters
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.85 indicates strong liquidity
- Debt/equity of 0.67 is conservative
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score provided, creating uncertainty
Dividend
10/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength of 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
- Payout ratio is 0.00%
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$105.66
Analyst Target
$108.6
Upside/Downside
+2.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AIR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AIR
AAR Corp.
Primary
|
+186.7% | +119.4% | +50.2% | +38.1% | +22.8% | +0.6% |
|
BRC
Brady Corporation
Peer
|
+85.6% | +73.0% | +12.9% | +21.1% | +5.5% | -0.1% |
|
AZZ
AZZ Inc.
Peer
|
+172.2% | +204.5% | +41.4% | +12.9% | +11.0% | +0.2% |
|
PLUG
Plug Power Inc.
Peer
|
-96.5% | -86.0% | -13.9% | +31.8% | +9.3% | +7.8% |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
Peer
|
+84.7% | +107.8% | +37.4% | +37.4% | +5.2% | -0.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
42.1
Forward P/E
19.17
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.64
P/S Ratio
1.41
EV/Revenue
1.72
EV/EBITDA
15.39
Market Cap
$4.18B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.17%
Operating Margin
8.51%
Gross Margin
19.29%
ROE
6.86%
ROA
5.59%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+15.9%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.67
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.85
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.06
Good
Cash/Share
$1.94
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-26
$N/A
2026-01-06
$1.18
+14.2% surprise
2025-09-23
$1.08
+9.8% surprise
2025-07-16
$1.16
+16.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AIR against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 62 neutral, 55 bearish)
P/E Ratio
42.1
This Stock
vs
74.1
Sector Avg
-43.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.86%
This Stock
vs
7.57%
Sector Avg
-9.4%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.17%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-94.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.67
This Stock
vs
5.2
Sector Avg
-87.1%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
15.9%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-35.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.85
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
+7.0%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AIR
AAR Corp.
|
BEARISH | $4.18B | 42.1 | 6.9% | 3.2% | $105.66 | |
|
BRC
Brady Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $3.98B | 20.87 | 16.7% | 12.7% | $84.3 | |
|
AZZ
AZZ Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.72B | 11.84 | 27.4% | 19.9% | $123.6 | |
|
PLUG
Plug Power Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.28B | - | -93.8% | -% | $2.36 | |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
|
NEUTRAL | $5.23B | 31.92 | 44.4% | 3.3% | $125.45 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 26,749 | $2,650,941 |
| 2026-01-14 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 26,749 | $1,223,779 |
| 2026-01-12 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 30,000 | $2,925,030 |
| 2026-01-12 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 30,000 | $1,442,700 |
| 2026-01-09 | JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A. | Officer | Sale | 23,621 | $2,292,392 |
| 2026-01-09 | JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A. | Officer | Option Exercise | 14,652 | $603,694 |
| 2026-01-08 | GARASCIA JESSICA A | General Counsel | Sale | 4,787 | $455,975 |
| 2026-01-02 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 23,077 | $1,941,304 |
| 2025-11-05 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 38,462 | $3,211,615 |
| 2025-08-07 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $716,994 |
| 2025-08-04 | PACHAPA ERIC S | Officer | Sale | 5,000 | $364,582 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
5 analysts
Keybanc
2026-01-14
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2026-01-07
Outperform
Outperform
Truist Securities
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
Jefferies
2025-12-17
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-11-26
Outperform
Outperform
Keybanc
2025-09-29
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2025-09-24
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-09-24
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AIR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.