AIR
BEARISH
$118.52
Live
AAR Corp. · NYSE
Target $119.8
(+1.1%)
$46.51
52W Range
$122.97
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 26, 2026
Market cap
$4.69B
P/E
26.05
ROE
6.9%
Profit margin
3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.67
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
AAR Corp. (AIR) exhibits weak financial health per the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, indicating deteriorating fundamentals despite strong revenue growth and consistent earnings beats. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about bankruptcy risk, particularly given the company's moderate debt-to-equity ratio and declining insider sentiment. While the stock trades at a premium to its Graham Number ($59.28) and intrinsic value ($31.85), its current price of $118.52 reflects high growth expectations, which may not be sustainable. The bearish insider activity—$16.26M in sales over six months—further undermines confidence in near-term prospects.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 15.9% YoY
Consistent earnings beat rate of 75% over the last four quarters
Positive average earnings surprise of 13.31% in the last four quarters
Healthy current ratio of 2.85 and manageable debt-to-equity of 0.67
Significant 5-year stock appreciation (+176.4%) indicating strong market momentum
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health and deteriorating operational efficiency
No Altman Z-Score available, raising unquantified bankruptcy risk despite moderate leverage
Bearish insider sentiment with $16.26M in sales over six months, including multiple CEO and CFO sales
Stock trades at 26.05x P/E and 3.45x Price/Book, significantly above Graham Number and intrinsic value
Zero dividend yield and 0% payout ratio suggest no shareholder return mechanism
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$59.28
-50.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
42
Moderate
35
68
75
30
0
AI Verdict
Weak
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score (3/9), Bearish insider activity, High valuation relative to intrinsic value, Absence of Altman Z-Score, Lack of dividend policy
Confidence
88%
Value
35/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Revenue growth of 15.9% YoY
- Strong forward P/E of 21.02
Watchpoints
- Current price ($118.52) is 100% above Graham Number ($59.28)
- Intrinsic value estimate ($31.85) is significantly below current price
- Price/Book of 3.45 indicates premium valuation
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 15.9% YoY revenue growth
- 31.1% YoY EPS growth
- 9.3% Q/Q EPS growth
Watchpoints
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
- High growth expectations priced in, increasing downside risk
Past
75/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 25 consecutive quarters of earnings beats (with only 1 miss in 2021)
- Average earnings surprise of 13.31% over last 4 quarters
- Strong historical performance: +176.4% 5Y return
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth data missing for recent periods
- No clear trend in operating margin improvement
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.85 indicates strong liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.67 is below industry average
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising unquantified distress risk
- ROE of 6.86% and ROA of 5.59% are below industry average
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield
- Payout ratio of 0.00%
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$118.52
Analyst Target
$119.8
Upside/Downside
+1.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AIR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-25
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AIR
AAR Corp.
Primary
|
+176.4% | +117.3% | +70.2% | +45.2% | +1.6% | +8.9% |
|
MYRG
MYR Group Inc.
Peer
|
+357.2% | +161.2% | +185.0% | +56.4% | +20.4% | +11.5% |
|
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
+7.4% | +68.5% | +78.3% | +8.1% | +4.2% | +8.5% |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
Peer
|
+84.7% | +107.8% | +37.4% | +37.4% | +5.2% | -0.2% |
|
BRC
Brady Corporation
Peer
|
+85.6% | +73.0% | +12.9% | +21.1% | +5.5% | -0.1% |
AIR
AAR Corp.
Primary
5Y
+176.4%
3Y
+117.3%
1Y
+70.2%
6M
+45.2%
1M
+1.6%
1W
+8.9%
MYR
MYR Group Inc.
Peer
5Y
+357.2%
3Y
+161.2%
1Y
+185.0%
6M
+56.4%
1M
+20.4%
1W
+11.5%
MRC
Mercury Systems, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+7.4%
3Y
+68.5%
1Y
+78.3%
6M
+8.1%
1M
+4.2%
1W
+8.5%
BCO
The Brink's Company
Peer
5Y
+84.7%
3Y
+107.8%
1Y
+37.4%
6M
+37.4%
1M
+5.2%
1W
-0.2%
BRC
Brady Corporation
Peer
5Y
+85.6%
3Y
+73.0%
1Y
+12.9%
6M
+21.1%
1M
+5.5%
1W
-0.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
26.05
Forward P/E
21.02
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.45
P/S Ratio
1.58
EV/Revenue
1.75
EV/EBITDA
15.64
Market Cap
$4.69B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.17%
Operating Margin
8.51%
Gross Margin
19.29%
ROE
6.86%
ROA
5.59%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+15.9%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.67
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.85
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.06
Good
Cash/Share
$1.94
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.8B
Gross Margin
19.7%
Op. Margin
8.4%
Net Margin
4.4%
Total Assets
$3.2B
Liabilities
$1.7B
Equity
$1.6B
Debt/Equity
1.08x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
46%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-07-16
$N/A
2026-01-06
$1.18
+14.2% surprise
2025-09-23
$1.08
+9.8% surprise
2025-07-16
$1.16
+16.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AIR against 277 companies in the Industrials sector
(19 bullish, 97 neutral, 161 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.05
This Stock
vs
81.56
Sector Avg
-68.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.86%
This Stock
vs
-20.04%
Sector Avg
-134.2%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.17%
This Stock
vs
12.29%
Sector Avg
-74.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.67
This Stock
vs
3.15
Sector Avg
-78.8%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
15.9%
This Stock
vs
111.87%
Sector Avg
-85.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.85
This Stock
vs
3.12
Sector Avg
-8.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AIR
AAR Corp.
|
BEARISH | $4.69B | 26.05 | 6.9% | 3.2% | $118.52 | |
|
MYRG
MYR Group Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.0B | 42.55 | 18.8% | 3.2% | $322.07 | Compare |
|
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.05B | - | -2.1% | -3.2% | $84.09 | Compare |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
|
NEUTRAL | $5.23B | 31.92 | 44.4% | 3.3% | $125.45 | Compare |
|
BRC
Brady Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $3.98B | 20.87 | 16.7% | 12.7% | $84.3 | Compare |
AIR
AAR Corp.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$4.7B
P/E
26.0
ROE
6.9%
Price
$118.52
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | FLANAGAN SARAH L | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 10,750 | $404,845 |
| 2026-02-04 | FLANAGAN SARAH L | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 10,750 | $1,166,992 |
| 2026-02-03 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 2,000 | - |
| 2026-02-03 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 10,000 | $376,600 |
| 2026-02-03 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $1,084,363 |
| 2026-01-22 | PACHAPA ERIC S | Officer | Stock Award | 1,860 | - |
| 2026-01-22 | FLANAGAN SARAH L | Officer | Stock Award | 3,715 | - |
| 2026-01-22 | PACHAPA ERIC S | Officer | Option Exercise | 4,983 | $149,478 |
| 2026-01-22 | PACHAPA ERIC S | Officer | Sale | 4,983 | $527,882 |
| 2026-01-14 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 26,749 | $1,223,779 |
| 2026-01-14 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 26,749 | $2,650,941 |
| 2026-01-12 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 30,000 | $1,442,700 |
| 2026-01-12 | HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 30,000 | $2,925,030 |
| 2026-01-09 | JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A. | Officer | Option Exercise | 14,652 | $603,694 |
| 2026-01-09 | JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A. | Officer | Sale | 23,621 | $2,292,392 |
FLANAGAN SARAH L
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-04
10,750 shares
·
$404,845
FLANAGAN SARAH L
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-04
10,750 shares
·
$1,166,992
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-03
2,000 shares
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-03
10,000 shares
·
$376,600
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-03
10,000 shares
·
$1,084,363
PACHAPA ERIC S
Officer
2026-01-22
1,860 shares
FLANAGAN SARAH L
Officer
2026-01-22
3,715 shares
PACHAPA ERIC S
Officer
2026-01-22
4,983 shares
·
$149,478
PACHAPA ERIC S
Officer
2026-01-22
4,983 shares
·
$527,882
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-14
26,749 shares
·
$1,223,779
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-14
26,749 shares
·
$2,650,941
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-12
30,000 shares
·
$1,442,700
HOLMES JOHN MCCLAIN III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-12
30,000 shares
·
$2,925,030
JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A.
Officer
2026-01-09
14,652 shares
·
$603,694
JESSUP CHRISTOPHER A.
Officer
2026-01-09
23,621 shares
·
$2,292,392
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
5 analysts
RBC Capital
2026-03-25
Outperform
Outperform
Keybanc
2026-03-25
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2026-03-06
Buy
Buy
Jefferies
2026-02-23
Buy
Buy
Goldman Sachs
2026-01-26
Neutral
Keybanc
2026-01-14
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2026-01-07
Outperform
Outperform
Truist Securities
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
Jefferies
2025-12-17
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-11-26
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AIR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.