ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ARI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Real Estate
REIT - Mortgage
Current Price
Live
$9.92
Analyst Target
$10.96
+10.5%
Upside
52W High
$11.11
52W Low
$7.7
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.38B
P/E
11.4
ROE
7.4%
Profit margin
51.3%
Debt/Equity
4.06
Dividend yield
10.01%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and a concerning lack of Altman Z-Score data, which raises transparency risks. Despite a high dividend yield of 10.01%, the payout ratio of 113.64% is unsustainable, supported by declining earnings and negative revenue growth. Profitability margins appear strong on the surface but are misleading due to the company's high leverage (Debt/Equity: 4.06) and volatile earnings, including multiple large negative EPS surprises. Insider selling, bearish technicals, and a deteriorating earnings trend further undermine the bullish analyst recommendation and target price premium.
Key Strengths
High dividend yield of 10.01% offers attractive income potential
Price/Book ratio of 0.74 suggests the stock trades below book value
Strong gross and operating margins (69.75% and 44.81%) indicate pricing power or low cost structure
Current and quick ratios above 9 suggest exceptional short-term liquidity
Analyst consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a target price 10.5% above current levels
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates weak financial health and poor earnings stability
Debt/Equity ratio of 4.06 is extremely high, increasing default and refinancing risk
Dividend payout ratio of 113.64% is unsustainable and likely to be cut
Insider selling by CEO totaling $1.09M signals lack of confidence
Earnings volatility with multiple large negative surprises (e.g., -357.8% in Q1 2025) indicates poor predictability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$6.09
-38.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
39
Weak
65
25
40
30
35
AI Verdict
High-risk, income-focused investment with unsustainable fundamentals
Key drivers: Unsustainable dividend payout, High leverage, Weak Piotroski score, Negative earnings growth, Insider selling
Confidence
75%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Book of 0.74 suggests undervaluation relative to assets
- P/E of 11.40 is below sector average of 55.43
Watchpoints
- Graham Number ($16.20) is significantly above current price, but not supported by growth or safety
- Intrinsic value estimate of $6.09 is below current price, suggesting overvaluation on growth basis
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target price implies 10.5% upside
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth YoY is -6.20%
- No PEG ratio due to unreliable earnings growth
- Most recent EPS growth YoY is -25.8%
- Q/Q EPS growth is -11.5%
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +49.1% shows long-term capital appreciation
- History of frequent earnings beats prior to recent volatility
Watchpoints
- Multiple large negative earnings surprises (e.g., -128.2%, -357.8%)
- Earnings trend has deteriorated significantly since 2023
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Exceptionally high current and quick ratios (>9)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score reported, increasing risk uncertainty
- ROA of only 1.48% despite high margins, indicating poor asset efficiency
- Debt/Equity ratio of 4.06 is well above peer average of 3.64
Dividend
35/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 10.01% is highly attractive in current rate environment
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 113.64% exceeds earnings, indicating dividend is not covered
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 reflects high risk of cut
- No 5-year average yield data, suggesting inconsistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$9.92
Analyst Target
$10.96
Upside/Downside
+10.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ARI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Primary
|
+49.1% | +20.2% | +23.8% | +5.8% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-18.7% | -20.1% | -20.4% | -8.6% | -4.6% | 0.0% |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
Peer
|
+58.2% | +26.3% | +25.3% | +16.0% | +0.5% | -0.5% |
|
ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
Peer
|
+28.6% | +33.4% | +37.1% | -2.2% | +11.4% | +0.9% |
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-7.8% | -22.3% | -34.2% | -32.0% | -2.4% | -6.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
11.4
Forward P/E
10.63
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.74
P/S Ratio
5.12
EV/Revenue
32.26
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.38B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
51.31%
Operating Margin
44.81%
Gross Margin
69.75%
ROE
7.41%
ROA
1.48%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-6.2%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
4.06
High debt
Current Ratio
9.46
Strong
Quick Ratio
9.43
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.77
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-10
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.23
-7.6% surprise
2025-07-29
$0.26
+4.0% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.24
+8.8% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing ARI against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 9 neutral, 46 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.4
This Stock
vs
48.41
Sector Avg
-76.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.41%
This Stock
vs
-78.05%
Sector Avg
-109.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
51.31%
This Stock
vs
26.54%
Sector Avg
+93.3%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
4.06
This Stock
vs
3.27
Sector Avg
+24.0%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-6.2%
This Stock
vs
1826.76%
Sector Avg
-100.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
9.46
This Stock
vs
8.06
Sector Avg
+17.4%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real...
|
BEARISH | $1.38B | 11.4 | 7.4% | 51.3% | $9.92 | |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.39B | 17.8 | 7.0% | 14.1% | $17.98 | |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.51B | 20.54 | 7.3% | 32.4% | $20.75 | |
|
ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.24B | 34.38 | 23.0% | 17.0% | $243.04 | |
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.64B | 10.05 | 6.6% | 35.1% | $7.74 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | ROTHSTEIN STUART A | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 109,452 | - |
| 2025-12-30 | MIRONOVA ANASTASIA G. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 34,825 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTHSTEIN STUART A | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 52,072 | $529,135 |
| 2025-09-15 | ROTHSTEIN STUART A | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 52,073 | $561,269 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
6 analysts
JP Morgan
2025-11-03
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-20
Neutral
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-10-09
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ARI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.