AVA Avista Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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AVA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Utilities
Utilities - Diversified
Current Price
Live
$40.04
Analyst Target
$41.0
+2.4%
Upside
52W High
$43.09
52W Low
$35.5
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$3.26B
P/E
16.97
ROE
7.3%
Profit margin
9.6%
Debt/Equity
1.21
Dividend yield
4.83%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial health, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. AVA trades near its analyst target price of $41.00 and slightly below the growth-based intrinsic value of $69.62, but well above the conservative Graham Number of $41.55. Strong recent earnings growth (YoY +56.4%) and a high dividend yield (4.83%) are offset by declining earnings estimate accuracy, insider selling, and weak technical momentum. Relative to sector peers, AVA has below-average revenue growth and profitability but a more stable payout and moderate leverage.
Key Strengths
High dividend yield of 4.83% provides income appeal in a low-growth sector
Earnings growth is strong, with YoY growth of 56.4% and Q/Q growth of 61.1%
Debt/Equity of 1.21 is below sector average of 1.72, indicating relatively conservative capital structure
Current price of $40.04 is below analyst target of $41.00 and intrinsic value of $69.62
Gross margin of 63.34% reflects pricing power and cost control in regulated utility operations
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly in profitability and leverage trends
Current ratio of 0.91 and quick ratio of 0.33 suggest near-term liquidity pressure
High payout ratio of 82.42% leaves little room for dividend sustainability under earnings volatility
Insider selling activity over the past 6 months signals lack of confidence from management
Technical trend score of 0/100 indicates strong bearish momentum despite positive fundamentals
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$41.55
+3.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
59
Moderate
65
70
52
48
60
AI Verdict
Neutral with value constraints and mixed signals
Key drivers: Moderate valuation relative to growth expectations, Strong dividend offset by high payout ratio, Improving earnings growth but weakening estimate accuracy, Below-average financial health per Piotroski, Bearish insider and technical signals
Confidence
75%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($40.04) is near Graham Number ($41.55)
- Forward P/E of 14.49 is below sector average of 25.41
Watchpoints
- P/E of 16.97 is higher than historical utility norms
- No PEG ratio due to inconsistent growth trajectory
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong YoY earnings growth of 56.4%
- Q/Q earnings growth of 61.1% shows acceleration
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is low at 2.30% YoY
- Earnings estimate misses in 3 of last 4 quarters
Past
52/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-Year price return of +28.8% shows long-term stability
- History of positive earnings surprises in cyclical pattern
Watchpoints
- Earnings estimate accuracy has declined recently
- Negative average surprise of -7.53% over last 4 quarters
Health
48/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROE of 7.31% is positive and stable
- Debt/Equity below sector average
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current and quick ratios below 1.0 signal liquidity risk
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 4.83% is attractive in current rate environment
- Dividend strength score of 55/100 indicates moderate reliability
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 82.42% is high for a utility, limiting reinvestment capacity
- No 5-year average yield data suggests potential volatility
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$40.04
Analyst Target
$41.0
Upside/Downside
+2.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AVA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVA
Avista Corporation
Primary
|
+28.8% | +11.4% | +17.6% | +10.5% | +4.3% | -0.3% |
|
AWR
American States Water Company
Peer
|
+0.3% | -18.7% | +4.0% | +1.7% | -0.5% | -3.7% |
|
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
Peer
|
-53.0% | +1.0% | +47.5% | +6.3% | +2.4% | -1.4% |
|
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
Peer
|
+43.4% | +15.9% | +30.7% | +29.1% | +3.2% | -2.3% |
|
BIPC
Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation
Peer
|
+23.0% | +12.8% | +12.4% | +11.4% | -2.0% | -0.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
16.97
Forward P/E
14.49
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.23
P/S Ratio
1.66
EV/Revenue
3.27
EV/EBITDA
10.2
Market Cap
$3.26B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
9.62%
Operating Margin
15.14%
Gross Margin
63.34%
ROE
7.31%
ROA
2.7%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
Earnings Growth
+56.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+61.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.21
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.91
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.33
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.54
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-25
$N/A
2025-11-05
$0.36
+26.8% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.17
-44.3% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.98
-5.1% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing AVA against 21 companies in the Utilities sector
(0 bullish, 18 neutral, 3 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.97
This Stock
vs
24.3
Sector Avg
-30.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.31%
This Stock
vs
-7.2%
Sector Avg
-201.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
9.62%
This Stock
vs
10.62%
Sector Avg
-9.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.21
This Stock
vs
1.76
Sector Avg
-31.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.3%
This Stock
vs
6.94%
Sector Avg
-66.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.91
This Stock
vs
0.88
Sector Avg
+4.0%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVA
Avista Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $3.26B | 16.97 | 7.3% | 9.6% | $40.04 | |
|
AWR
American States Water Company
|
NEUTRAL | $2.83B | 22.1 | 13.8% | 20.4% | $73.16 | |
|
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.9B | 91.14 | 0.1% | -1.1% | $6.38 | |
|
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.41B | 18.1 | 7.9% | 12.5% | $71.68 | |
|
BIPC
Brookfield Infrastructure...
|
BEARISH | $5.45B | - | 34.8% | -4.3% | $45.55 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | THACKSTON JASON R | Officer | Option Exercise | 1,710 | $66,604 |
| 2026-01-06 | CHRISTIE KEVIN J | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 2,270 | $88,416 |
| 2026-01-06 | DILUCIANO JOSHUA D | Officer | Option Exercise | 938 | $36,535 |
| 2026-01-06 | KINNEY SCOTT J | Officer | Option Exercise | 938 | $36,535 |
| 2026-01-06 | MANUEL WAYNE O | Officer | Option Exercise | 902 | $35,133 |
| 2026-01-06 | ALEXANDER ALEXIS G | Officer | Option Exercise | 214 | $8,335 |
| 2026-01-06 | MEYER DAVID JOSEPH | Retired | Option Exercise | 876 | $34,120 |
| 2026-01-06 | KRASSELT RYAN L | Officer | Option Exercise | 876 | $34,120 |
| 2026-01-06 | ROSENTRATER HEATHER LYNN | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 2,293 | $89,312 |
| 2026-01-06 | COX BRYAN ALDEN | Officer | Option Exercise | 1,147 | $44,676 |
| 2026-01-06 | HESLER GREGORY CURTIS | Officer | Option Exercise | 1,376 | $53,595 |
| 2026-01-06 | HILL LATISHA DIANE | Officer | Option Exercise | 876 | $34,120 |
| 2025-12-16 | MANUEL WAYNE O | Officer | Sale | 1,785 | $69,151 |
| 2025-12-12 | WIDMANN JANET D | Director | Sale | 7,400 | $285,875 |
| 2025-12-03 | MORRIS SCOTT L | Chairman of the Board | Gift | 1,262 | $49,773 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
5 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-01-20
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-28
Equal-Weight
Jefferies
2025-10-22
Hold
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AVA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.