AVAL Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AVAL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Banks - Regional
Current Price
Live
$4.68
Analyst Target
$3.2
-31.6%
Downside
52W High
$4.75
52W Low
$2.25
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$5.58B
P/E
12.65
ROE
9.2%
Profit margin
12.3%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
2.94%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a critically weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 0/9, indicating severe deterioration in fundamental performance. Despite strong recent price momentum and solid earnings growth, the company exhibits alarming profitability distortions—operating and gross margins are 0.00%, while the Price/Book ratio of 0.01 suggests either a deep-value opportunity or potential accounting irregularities. Revenue and earnings growth are impressive, but inconsistent earnings surprises and a lack of transparency in balance sheet metrics (missing debt, cash, and Altman Z-Score) undermine confidence. The stock trades above the conservative Graham Number of $80.35, but this appears to be a data error given the current price of $4.68, suggesting possible misreporting or unit discrepancy.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% and 50.0% YoY EPS growth indicate robust profitability expansion.
Attractive dividend yield of 2.94% with a sustainable payout ratio of 37.68%.
Significant recent price appreciation: +108.0% over 1 year and +123.2% over 3 years, reflecting strong investor sentiment.
Low P/E of 12.65 and forward P/E of 9.82, below sector average of 21.22, suggesting potential undervaluation.
Profit margin of 12.35% is healthy relative to sector volatility.
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 signals extreme financial distress and deteriorating operational fundamentals.
Operating and gross margins reported as 0.00% are highly abnormal for a regional bank, raising red flags about revenue recognition or cost structure.
Price/Book ratio of 0.01 is implausibly low, indicating either severe asset overstatement or data integrity issues.
Missing key financials: Debt/Equity, cash, debt, and Altman Z-Score prevent proper solvency and leverage assessment.
Earnings surprise trend is negative, with 3 of the last 4 quarters missing estimates and an average miss of -0.53%.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$4.75
+1.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
55
68
30
10
60
AI Verdict
High-risk, structurally weak profile masked by short-term growth and price momentum.
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 0, Abnormal margin metrics, Missing financial health data, Discrepancy between Graham Number and current price
Confidence
80%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low P/E and forward P/E relative to sector
- Dividend yield above market average
Watchpoints
- Price/Book of 0.01 is unsustainable or erroneous
- Graham Number ($80.35) vastly exceeds current price ($4.68), suggesting data inconsistency
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 12.10% YoY
- Earnings growth of 25.30% YoY
- Q/Q earnings growth stable at 25.30%
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E not supported by margin expansion
- No PEG ratio due to missing growth-adjusted valuation
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 3-year price return of +123.2%
- Recent upward momentum in price
Watchpoints
- Consistent pattern of earnings misses in recent quarters
- Declining trend in actual EPS from $0.22 (2021) to $0.07 (2024)
Health
10/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 indicates critical financial weakness
- Operating and gross margins at 0.00%
- Missing Altman Z-Score, Debt/Equity, and liquidity ratios
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.94% is attractive
- Payout ratio of 37.68% is sustainable
Watchpoints
- No 5-year average yield to assess consistency
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 indicates moderate reliability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$4.68
Analyst Target
$3.2
Upside/Downside
-31.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AVAL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.
Primary
|
-3.3% | +123.2% | +108.0% | +59.6% | +9.6% | +8.1% |
|
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
Peer
|
+28.3% | +15.2% | +10.9% | +20.1% | +6.3% | +1.4% |
|
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
Peer
|
+96.5% | +75.1% | +26.8% | +21.8% | +5.3% | +0.6% |
|
ACT
Enact Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+145.2% | +101.6% | +25.8% | +5.2% | -6.5% | -2.3% |
|
AX
Axos Financial, Inc.
Peer
|
+123.1% | +117.6% | +29.3% | +8.3% | +3.2% | -2.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
12.65
Forward P/E
9.82
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.01
P/S Ratio
N/A
EV/Revenue
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$5.58B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
12.35%
Operating Margin
N/A
Gross Margin
N/A
ROE
9.25%
ROA
0.94%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
Earnings Growth
+25.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+25.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$N/A
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-17
$N/A
2025-11-13
$0.12
+23.6% surprise
2025-08-13
$0.1
+3.5% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.07
-28.8% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AVAL against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.65
This Stock
vs
30.37
Sector Avg
-58.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.25%
This Stock
vs
-7.62%
Sector Avg
-221.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.35%
This Stock
vs
82.75%
Sector Avg
-85.1%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
12.1%
This Stock
vs
28.35%
Sector Avg
-57.3%
(Slower)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.
|
BEARISH | $5.58B | 12.65 | 9.2% | 12.3% | $4.68 | |
|
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares...
|
NEUTRAL | $5.54B | 19.53 | 6.7% | 22.2% | $38.87 | |
|
ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
|
NEUTRAL | $5.52B | 14.34 | 10.3% | 35.2% | $80.44 | |
|
ACT
Enact Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.85B | 8.96 | 13.0% | 54.6% | $40.49 | |
|
AX
Axos Financial, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.2B | 12.94 | 16.7% | 36.0% | $91.75 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
1 analysts
Citigroup
2026-01-22
Buy
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-10-20
Neutral
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AVAL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.