AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AVB Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Real Estate
REIT - Residential
Current Price
Live
$178.77
Analyst Target
$200.17
+12.0%
Upside
52W High
$230.21
52W Low
$166.73
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$25.45B
P/E
21.41
ROE
9.8%
Profit margin
38.1%
Debt/Equity
0.73
Dividend yield
3.98%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and a concerning lack of Altman Z-Score data, which raises uncertainty about solvency risk. Despite solid profitability metrics like a 38.12% profit margin and a 3.98% dividend yield, the company faces declining earnings (YoY EPS growth of -43.3%), poor recent earnings surprises (-7.36% average over last four quarters), and stretched valuations (Forward P/E of 34.88 vs. sector average of 55.02, but on deteriorating fundamentals). Insider selling, a bearish technical trend, and a high payout ratio of 84.76% further undermine confidence. While analyst target price suggests upside to $200.17, the combination of weakening momentum, dividend sustainability concerns, and premium valuation relative to intrinsic value paints a cautious outlook.
Key Strengths
High profit margin of 38.12% outperforms sector average of 28.39%
Attractive dividend yield of 3.98% provides income appeal in REIT sector
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 is well below sector average of 3.60, indicating conservative leverage
ROE of 9.75% is positive in a sector where average ROE is deeply negative (-94.50%)
Analyst consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a target price implying 12% upside
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health and low resilience to downturns
Forward P/E of 34.88 is extremely high given negative earnings growth (YoY EPS -43.3%)
Recent earnings performance has consistently missed estimates over the last four quarters (avg. -7.36% surprise)
High dividend payout ratio of 84.76% threatens sustainability amid declining earnings
Insider selling activity over the past six months signals lack of confidence from management
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$107.24
-40.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
38
35
52
40
58
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals and weak near-term momentum
Key drivers: High Forward P/E on shrinking earnings, Poor Piotroski F-Score, Negative insider activity, Declining YoY EPS, Premium to Graham Number
Confidence
80%
Value
38/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Sales of 8.30 is below sector average implied by EV/Revenue trends
- Lower Debt/Equity than peers
Watchpoints
- Current price ($178.77) trades at 142% of Graham Number ($125.93)
- Forward P/E of 34.88 is unjustifiably high given negative growth
- No PEG ratio due to unreliable growth trajectory
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +18.6% shows short-term rebound potential
Watchpoints
- Year-over-Year EPS growth is -43.3%
- Revenue growth slowing to 4.40% YoY
- Forward P/E implies aggressive growth assumptions not supported by recent trends
Past
52/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings surprises pre-2025 (multiple quarters >+40%)
- 5Y total return of +27.0% outpaces broader REIT sector averages
Watchpoints
- Last four quarters have all missed estimates
- 1Y price return of -13.4% reflects deteriorating investor sentiment
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.73 indicates manageable leverage
- ROA of 2.81% is positive in a capital-intensive sector
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current ratio of 0.71 and quick ratio of 0.09 signal liquidity risk
- No Altman Z-Score available, creating blind spot for bankruptcy risk
Dividend
58/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.98% is attractive in current rate environment
- Payout ratio below 100% maintains nominal sustainability
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 84.76% is high for a REIT with declining earnings
- Dividend Strength score of 35/100 indicates weak reliability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$178.77
Analyst Target
$200.17
Upside/Downside
+12.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AVB and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Primary
|
+27.0% | +14.8% | -13.4% | -9.7% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
|
BEKE
KE Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
-72.8% | +4.5% | +12.2% | -6.6% | +13.6% | +4.5% |
|
VICI
VICI Properties Inc.
Peer
|
+49.9% | +11.9% | +2.5% | -2.8% | -3.0% | +0.1% |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
Peer
|
+17.8% | +5.7% | -4.3% | -9.5% | +0.5% | -1.1% |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
Peer
|
+20.9% | +55.7% | +17.8% | +7.5% | -9.5% | -3.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
21.41
Forward P/E
34.88
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.12
P/S Ratio
8.3
EV/Revenue
11.18
EV/EBITDA
18.34
Market Cap
$25.45B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
38.12%
Operating Margin
29.28%
Gross Margin
63.44%
ROE
9.75%
ROA
2.81%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
Earnings Growth
+2.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+2.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.73
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.71
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.09
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.87
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-10-29
$1.4
-6.0% surprise
2025-07-30
$1.18
-9.2% surprise
2025-04-29
$1.26
-6.9% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing AVB against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 10 neutral, 45 bearish)
P/E Ratio
21.41
This Stock
vs
48.41
Sector Avg
-55.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.75%
This Stock
vs
-75.16%
Sector Avg
-113.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
38.12%
This Stock
vs
26.54%
Sector Avg
+43.6%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.73
This Stock
vs
3.27
Sector Avg
-77.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.4%
This Stock
vs
1831.41%
Sector Avg
-99.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.71
This Stock
vs
8.08
Sector Avg
-91.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $25.45B | 21.41 | 9.8% | 38.1% | $178.77 | |
|
BEKE
KE Holdings Inc.
|
BEARISH | $21.05B | 42.37 | 5.0% | 3.4% | $18.22 | |
|
VICI
VICI Properties Inc.
|
BULLISH | $32.55B | 11.54 | 10.4% | 70.2% | $30.36 | |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent
|
NEUTRAL | $13.52B | 26.66 | 6.6% | 24.7% | $31.99 | |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
BEARISH | $11.49B | 6.96 | 15.1% | 92.9% | $10.23 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | FLYNN CONOR C | Director | Stock Award | 600 | - |
| 2025-12-02 | WILLSON SEAN THOMAS | Officer | Sale | 150 | $27,040 |
| 2025-12-01 | BRESLIN SEAN JOSEPH | Chief Operating Officer | Gift | 150 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | BROWN TERRY S | Director | Stock Award | 209 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | MUELLER CHARLES E. JR. | Director | Stock Award | 181 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | FLYNN CONOR C | Director | Stock Award | 32 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | HOWARD CHRISTOPHER | Director | Stock Award | 139 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | HAVNER RONALD L JR | Director | Stock Award | 139 | - |
| 2025-09-02 | BROWN TERRY S | Director | Stock Award | 198 | - |
| 2025-09-02 | MUELLER CHARLES E. JR. | Director | Stock Award | 172 | - |
| 2025-09-02 | HOWARD CHRISTOPHER | Director | Stock Award | 132 | - |
| 2025-09-02 | HAVNER RONALD L JR | Director | Stock Award | 132 | - |
| 2025-08-07 | WILLSON SEAN THOMAS | Officer | Sale | 150 | $28,248 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
21 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-01-20
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-13
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2026-01-08
Neutral
Neutral
Colliers Securities
2025-12-04
Buy
Neutral
Truist Securities
2025-12-02
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-11-25
Equal-Weight
Overweight
Mizuho
2025-11-24
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-13
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-11-10
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-11-10
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AVB from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.