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AVB

BEARISH
$178.77 Live
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · NYSE
Target $200.17 (+12.0%)
$166.73 52W Range $230.21

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$25.45B
P/E
21.41
ROE
9.8%
Profit margin
38.1%
Debt/Equity
0.73
Dividend yield
3.98%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
78%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and a concerning lack of Altman Z-Score data, which raises uncertainty about solvency risk. Despite solid profitability metrics like a 38.12% profit margin and a 3.98% dividend yield, the company faces declining earnings (YoY EPS growth of -43.3%), poor recent earnings surprises (-7.36% average over last four quarters), and stretched valuations (Forward P/E of 34.88 vs. sector average of 55.02, but on deteriorating fundamentals). Insider selling, a bearish technical trend, and a high payout ratio of 84.76% further undermine confidence. While analyst target price suggests upside to $200.17, the combination of weakening momentum, dividend sustainability concerns, and premium valuation relative to intrinsic value paints a cautious outlook.

Key Strengths

High profit margin of 38.12% outperforms sector average of 28.39%
Attractive dividend yield of 3.98% provides income appeal in REIT sector
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 is well below sector average of 3.60, indicating conservative leverage
ROE of 9.75% is positive in a sector where average ROE is deeply negative (-94.50%)
Analyst consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a target price implying 12% upside

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health and low resilience to downturns
Forward P/E of 34.88 is extremely high given negative earnings growth (YoY EPS -43.3%)
Recent earnings performance has consistently missed estimates over the last four quarters (avg. -7.36% surprise)
High dividend payout ratio of 84.76% threatens sustainability amid declining earnings
Insider selling activity over the past six months signals lack of confidence from management
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$107.24
-40.0% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
45
Moderate
Value
38
Future
35
Past
52
Health
40
Dividend
58
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals and weak near-term momentum
Key drivers: High Forward P/E on shrinking earnings, Poor Piotroski F-Score, Negative insider activity, Declining YoY EPS, Premium to Graham Number
Confidence
80%
Value
38/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • Price/Sales of 8.30 is below sector average implied by EV/Revenue trends
  • Lower Debt/Equity than peers
Watchpoints
  • Current price ($178.77) trades at 142% of Graham Number ($125.93)
  • Forward P/E of 34.88 is unjustifiably high given negative growth
  • No PEG ratio due to unreliable growth trajectory
Future
35/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Q/Q EPS growth of +18.6% shows short-term rebound potential
Watchpoints
  • Year-over-Year EPS growth is -43.3%
  • Revenue growth slowing to 4.40% YoY
  • Forward P/E implies aggressive growth assumptions not supported by recent trends
Past
52/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Historically strong earnings surprises pre-2025 (multiple quarters >+40%)
  • 5Y total return of +27.0% outpaces broader REIT sector averages
Watchpoints
  • Last four quarters have all missed estimates
  • 1Y price return of -13.4% reflects deteriorating investor sentiment
Health
40/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 0.73 indicates manageable leverage
  • ROA of 2.81% is positive in a capital-intensive sector
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
  • Current ratio of 0.71 and quick ratio of 0.09 signal liquidity risk
  • No Altman Z-Score available, creating blind spot for bankruptcy risk
Dividend
58/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 3.98% is attractive in current rate environment
  • Payout ratio below 100% maintains nominal sustainability
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 84.76% is high for a REIT with declining earnings
  • Dividend Strength score of 35/100 indicates weak reliability

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$178.77
Analyst Target
$200.17
Upside/Downside
+12.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AVB and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-01-23
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+27.0%
3Y
+14.8%
1Y
-13.4%
6M
-9.7%
1M
-1.4%
1W
-2.0%
SBA
SBA Communications Corporation
Peer
5Y
-16.6%
3Y
-10.2%
1Y
-0.4%
6M
+15.1%
1M
+21.9%
1W
-0.3%
EQR
Equity Residential
Peer
5Y
+1.1%
3Y
+16.5%
1Y
-6.1%
6M
+0.5%
1M
+7.8%
1W
-0.7%
EXR
Extra Space Storage Inc.
Peer
5Y
+17.8%
3Y
+7.8%
1Y
+4.8%
6M
-3.2%
1M
+9.3%
1W
-2.2%
BEK
KE Holdings Inc.
Peer
5Y
-73.3%
3Y
-5.8%
1Y
-31.2%
6M
-14.2%
1M
-3.7%
1W
+1.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
21.41
Forward P/E
34.88
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.12
P/S Ratio
8.3
EV/Revenue
11.18
EV/EBITDA
18.34
Market Cap
$25.45B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 38.12%
Operating Margin 29.28%
Gross Margin 63.44%
ROE 9.75%
ROA 2.81%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +4.4%
Earnings Growth +2.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +2.4%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.73
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.71
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.09
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.87

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-10-29
$1.4
-6.0% surprise
2025-07-30
$1.18
-9.2% surprise
2025-04-29
$1.26
-6.9% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing AVB against 165 companies in the Real Estate sector (6 bullish, 31 neutral, 128 bearish)
P/E Ratio
21.41
This Stock
vs
41.83
Sector Avg
-48.8% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.75%
This Stock
vs
-33.57%
Sector Avg
-129.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
38.12%
This Stock
vs
10.53%
Sector Avg
+262.0% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.73
This Stock
vs
2.45
Sector Avg
-70.1% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.4%
This Stock
vs
16932.14%
Sector Avg
-100.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.71
This Stock
vs
7.96
Sector Avg
-91.1% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

FLYNN CONOR C
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-09
600 shares
WILLSON SEAN THOMAS
Officer
Sell
2025-12-02
150 shares · $27,040
BRESLIN SEAN JOSEPH
Chief Operating Officer
Gift
2025-12-01
150 shares
BROWN TERRY S
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-01
209 shares
MUELLER CHARLES E. JR.
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-01
181 shares
FLYNN CONOR C
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-01
32 shares
HOWARD CHRISTOPHER
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-01
139 shares
HAVNER RONALD L JR
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-01
139 shares
BROWN TERRY S
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-02
198 shares
MUELLER CHARLES E. JR.
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-02
172 shares
HOWARD CHRISTOPHER
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-02
132 shares
HAVNER RONALD L JR
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-02
132 shares
WILLSON SEAN THOMAS
Officer
Sell
2025-08-07
150 shares · $28,248
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
21 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-01-20
Maintains
Buy Buy
Barclays
2026-01-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
UBS
2026-01-08
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Colliers Securities
2025-12-04
down
Buy Neutral
Truist Securities
2025-12-02
Maintains
Buy Buy
Barclays
2025-11-25
up
Equal-Weight Overweight
Mizuho
2025-11-24
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
UBS
2025-11-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-11-10
Maintains
Overweight Overweight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning AVB from our newsroom.

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