BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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BRSP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Real Estate
REIT - Mortgage
Current Price
Live
$5.91
Analyst Target
$6.36
+7.6%
Upside
52W High
$6.32
52W Low
$4.16
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$768.26M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-4.3%
Profit margin
-11.0%
Debt/Equity
2.26
Dividend yield
10.68%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals critical weaknesses: a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9 indicates severe financial distress, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full bankruptcy risk assessment but combined with negative profitability metrics raises red flags. Despite a high dividend yield of 10.68%, the unsustainable 2000% payout ratio and collapsing earnings signal imminent dividend risk. Valuation appears cheap on a forward P/E of 8.43 and price-to-book of 0.79, but negative profit margins and deteriorating cash flows undermine this apparent value. Technical trend is deeply bearish at 10/100, and recent earnings growth has collapsed by 95.5% YoY, despite a misleading positive YoY EPS growth figure driven by prior-year distortions.
Key Strengths
Attractive forward P/E of 8.43 compared to sector average of 50.71 suggests potential undervaluation
High dividend yield of 10.68% may attract income-seeking investors
Strong gross margin of 74.54% indicates pricing power or low cost structure in core operations
Current ratio of 30.16 reflects substantial liquidity on the balance sheet
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a target price of $6.36, implying 7.5% upside
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial weakness and high risk of continued deterioration
Profit margin of -11.04% and ROE of -4.28% reflect unprofitable operations and poor capital efficiency
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.26 is elevated, increasing financial risk especially in rising rate environments
Payout ratio of 2000% is unsustainable and indicates dividends are being funded by debt or asset sales
Earnings growth down 95.5% YoY and Q/Q EPS declining 11.1%, signaling deep operational challenges
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.2
-45.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
32
Weak
58
24
38
18
22
AI Verdict
High-risk, fundamentally weak company trading on yield appeal despite deteriorating operations
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 2, Negative earnings and profit margin, Unsustainable dividend payout, Collapsing earnings growth, Lack of Altman Z-Score
Confidence
80%
Value
58/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 8.43 is significantly below sector average
- Price-to-book of 0.79 suggests shares trade below book value
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number available, limiting defensive valuation analysis
- P/E compression likely given earnings deterioration
Future
24/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target implies modest upside
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth down 4.8% YoY
- Earnings growth down 95.5% YoY
- Q/Q earnings growth down 92.3%
Past
38/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically beat earnings estimates in earlier quarters (e.g., +130% in 2020)
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses: 3 out of last 4 quarters missed estimates
- Average surprise over last 4 quarters: -12.01%
Health
18/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 30.16 indicates strong short-term liquidity
- Quick ratio of 2.02 is healthy
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress
- No Altman Z-Score available for bankruptcy risk modeling
- ROE of -4.28% and negative profit margin
Dividend
22/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 10.68% is high
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 2000% is completely unsustainable
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates high risk
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$5.91
Analyst Target
$6.36
Upside/Downside
+7.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BRSP and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
Primary
|
+19.4% | +16.8% | +19.3% | +27.5% | +3.2% | -0.8% |
|
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.
Peer
|
-16.1% | -29.6% | -24.2% | +1.9% | +7.0% | -2.4% |
|
ADAM
Adamas Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-22.7% | +23.8% | +35.5% | +17.6% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
|
AIV
Apartment Investment and Management Company
Peer
|
+84.8% | +15.4% | -7.9% | -5.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
|
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
Peer
|
-55.0% | -28.6% | -35.9% | -22.3% | +8.5% | -2.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
8.43
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.79
P/S Ratio
2.32
EV/Revenue
8.57
EV/EBITDA
14.42
Market Cap
$768.26M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-11.04%
Operating Margin
44.17%
Gross Margin
74.54%
ROE
-4.28%
ROA
2.79%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-4.8%
Earnings Growth
-95.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-92.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.26
High debt
Current Ratio
30.16
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.02
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.87
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-17
$N/A
2025-10-28
$0.16
-6.8% surprise
2025-07-29
$0.18
+15.6% surprise
2025-04-29
$0.04
-44.8% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing BRSP against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 9 neutral, 46 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-4.28%
This Stock
vs
-78.05%
Sector Avg
-94.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-11.04%
This Stock
vs
26.54%
Sector Avg
-141.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.26
This Stock
vs
3.27
Sector Avg
-30.8%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-4.8%
This Stock
vs
1826.76%
Sector Avg
-100.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
30.16
This Stock
vs
8.06
Sector Avg
+274.2%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $768.26M | - | -4.3% | -11.0% | $5.91 | |
|
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $714.25M | 31.32 | 3.6% | 5.9% | $6.89 | |
|
ADAM
Adamas Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $712.03M | 7.15 | 9.7% | 47.3% | $7.87 | |
|
AIV
Apartment Investment and...
|
BEARISH | $848.6M | - | -30.6% | 115.5% | $5.89 | |
|
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
|
BEARISH | $526.31M | - | -19.1% | -46.1% | $3.03 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
7 analysts
Jones Trading
2025-07-30
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BRSP from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.