BTE Baytex Energy Corp. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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BTE Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Energy
Oil & Gas E&P
Current Price
Live
$3.32
52W High
$3.52
52W Low
$1.36
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$2.55B
P/E
16.6
ROE
5.3%
Profit margin
7.0%
Debt/Equity
0.48
Dividend yield
2.03%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and a concerning lack of Altman Z-Score data, which raises transparency and solvency concerns. Despite trading below its Graham Number of $4.22 at $3.32, the stock shows deteriorating fundamentals, including sharply negative earnings and revenue growth (YoY: -82.6% and -12.3%, respectively), weak profitability trends, and a deteriorating technical trend (10/100). While the dividend appears sustainable with a 32% payout ratio, the current ratio of 0.58 signals near-term liquidity pressure. The company's inconsistent earnings performance, with frequent large misses and volatility in surprises, undermines confidence in its operational predictability.
Key Strengths
Trading below Graham Number ($3.32 vs $4.22), suggesting potential undervaluation on a defensive basis
Relatively low P/E ratio (16.60) compared to sector average (23.13), indicating possible value appeal
Strong gross margin (66.91%), reflecting pricing power or cost efficiency in core operations
Low debt/equity ratio (0.48), below sector average (0.70), indicating conservative capital structure
Positive insider sentiment score (60/100), though not reflected in actual transactions
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly concerning for a capital-intensive energy firm
Extremely weak technical trend (10/100) suggests strong bearish momentum and lack of investor confidence
Severe earnings contraction (YoY EPS growth: -82.6%), among the worst in the sector
Current ratio of 0.58 indicates potential short-term liquidity issues and inability to meet obligations
Missing Altman Z-Score prevents proper distress risk assessment, raising red flags about financial transparency
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.85
+16.0% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
68
25
40
38
55
AI Verdict
Cautious Avoid
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Negative earnings momentum, Strong gross margins, Below-Graham valuation, Bearish technicals
Confidence
75%
Value
68/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($3.32) below Graham Number ($4.22)
- P/E (16.60) below sector average (23.13)
- Price/Book (0.84) < 1, suggesting asset-based undervaluation
Watchpoints
- No PEG ratio due to negative growth
- Intrinsic value estimate very low ($1.40), questioning long-term growth assumptions
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst recommendation is 'buy', suggesting some forward optimism
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth (YoY: -12.30%) well below sector average (4.70%)
- Earnings growth (YoY: -82.60%) in freefall
- Q/Q EPS decline of -80.0% shows no recovery in sight
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +412.1% shows strong prior momentum
- History of large earnings surprises (e.g., +653.9% in Q1 2022)
Watchpoints
- High volatility in earnings performance, including multiple large misses
- 3-year return of -21.2% indicates recent underperformance
- Frequent negative earnings surprises in recent quarters
Health
38/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity (0.48) is conservative and below peer average
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current ratio (0.58) and quick ratio (0.52) both below 1, signaling liquidity risk
- Altman Z-Score missing, preventing distress risk evaluation
Dividend
55/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend payout ratio (32.14%) is sustainable
- Dividend yield (2.03%) is modest but present
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score only 50/100, indicating moderate reliability
- No 5-year average yield data, limiting visibility on consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$3.32
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BTE and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
Primary
|
+412.1% | -21.2% | +31.8% | +60.4% | +5.1% | +0.6% |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
Peer
|
+56.5% | +56.5% | +6.5% | +43.1% | +2.9% | +7.3% |
|
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
Peer
|
+165.0% | -14.8% | +34.9% | +102.3% | +12.9% | +4.9% |
|
ACDC
ProFrac Holding Corp.
Peer
|
-64.9% | -60.3% | -11.8% | +69.3% | +14.0% | +17.6% |
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
Peer
|
+1129.6% | +41.6% | +99.3% | +128.8% | +23.3% | +4.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
16.6
Forward P/E
16.35
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.84
P/S Ratio
0.84
EV/Revenue
1.49
EV/EBITDA
2.39
Market Cap
$2.55B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.02%
Operating Margin
17.33%
Gross Margin
66.91%
ROE
5.25%
ROA
4.75%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-12.3%
Earnings Growth
-82.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-82.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.48
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.58
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.52
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.01
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-03
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.04
+60.0% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.2
+328.5% surprise
2025-05-05
$0.09
-17.2% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing BTE against 26 companies in the Energy sector
(0 bullish, 20 neutral, 6 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.6
This Stock
vs
23.13
Sector Avg
-28.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.25%
This Stock
vs
7.95%
Sector Avg
-33.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.02%
This Stock
vs
8.82%
Sector Avg
-20.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.48
This Stock
vs
0.68
Sector Avg
-28.9%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-12.3%
This Stock
vs
4.1%
Sector Avg
-400.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.58
This Stock
vs
1.18
Sector Avg
-50.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
|
BEARISH | $2.55B | 16.6 | 5.3% | 7.0% | $3.32 | |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $2.73B | 58.69 | 2.7% | 5.5% | $28.17 | |
|
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $1.37B | 15.96 | 6.8% | 7.1% | $4.47 | |
|
ACDC
ProFrac Holding Corp.
|
BEARISH | $1.15B | - | -35.2% | -19.0% | $6.35 | |
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
|
BEARISH | $4.62B | - | -0.4% | -0.8% | $37.96 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Kalmakoff, Chadwick | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.39 per | 20,000 | $67,740 |
| 2026-01-05 | Arthur (Kendall Douglas) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.04 per | 10,000 | $30,430 |
| 2026-01-05 | Lessoway (Chris) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.27 per | 5,550 | $18,137 |
| 2026-01-05 | Maclean (James Robert) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.03 per | 25,000 | $75,725 |
| 2025-12-31 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Purchase | 678,700 | $2,190,843 |
| 2025-12-31 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Stock Award | 2,748,859 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | Frechette (Nicole Marie) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.23 per | 11,300 | $36,476 |
| 2025-12-31 | Lundberg (Chad) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.23 per | 11,000 | $35,508 |
| 2025-12-30 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Purchase | 674,500 | $2,190,776 |
| 2025-12-30 | Lundberg (Chad) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.18 per | 11,500 | $36,604 |
| 2025-12-29 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Purchase | 685,900 | $1,601,576 |
| 2025-12-26 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Purchase | 698,800 | $2,195,629 |
| 2025-12-24 | Baytex Energy | Issuer | Purchase | 689,659 | $2,188,977 |
| 2025-12-24 | Bly (Mark R) | Director of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.20 per | 20,000 | $64,000 |
| 2025-11-14 | Ector, Brian Gordon | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 3.10 per | 10,000 | $30,960 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BTE from our newsroom.
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No matching news yet.