BTU Peabody Energy Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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BTU Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Energy
Thermal Coal
Current Price
Live
$37.96
Analyst Target
$36.38
-4.2%
Downside
52W High
$39.95
52W Low
$9.61
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$4.62B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-0.4%
Profit margin
-0.8%
Debt/Equity
0.11
Dividend yield
0.78%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals severe financial health concerns with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, indicating weak operational and balance sheet performance. Despite a low forward P/E of 10.81 and a strong analyst recommendation of 'strong_buy', the company is unprofitable (negative net and operating margins), has deteriorating earnings (YoY EPS growth of -95.9%), and lacks key valuation benchmarks like a Graham Number or Altman Z-Score due to financial instability. While the balance sheet shows a healthy current ratio and low debt/equity, persistent losses, poor earnings predictability, and negative insider activity undermine any bullish case. The stock's recent price surge (+99.3% in 1Y) appears disconnected from fundamentals, increasing vulnerability to correction.
Key Strengths
Low forward P/E ratio of 10.81 suggests potential undervaluation relative to earnings capacity
Strong liquidity position with current ratio of 1.99 and quick ratio of 1.14
Minimal leverage with debt/equity ratio of 0.11, reducing solvency risk
Recent quarterly EPS growth shows a sharp +113.0% Q/Q rebound, indicating possible cyclical recovery
Analyst consensus is strongly bullish with a 'strong_buy' rating from 6 analysts
Key Risks
Critically low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals severe financial distress and weak operating performance
Negative profitability across all metrics: net margin (-0.83%), operating margin (-1.84%), and ROE (-0.43%)
Earnings are highly volatile and trending down, with YoY EPS growth of -95.9% and erratic estimate beats
No Altman Z-Score available, indicating insufficient data or high risk of financial distress
Insider selling activity and bearish technical trend (10/100) suggest lack of confidence from insiders and traders
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
36
Weak
55
28
35
20
40
AI Verdict
High-risk, fundamentally weak company trading on sentiment rather than strength
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Negative profitability metrics, Lack of Altman Z-Score, Recent insider selling, Extreme volatility in earnings
Confidence
80%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 10.81 is below sector average of 23.13
- Price/Sales of 1.16 is reasonable
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number or Intrinsic Value available
- P/E ratio not calculable due to negative earnings
Future
28/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +113.0% suggests short-term rebound
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth YoY is -7.00%
- Earnings growth YoY is -95.9%
- PEG ratio not available due to negative or unstable earnings
Past
35/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 52-week low of $9.61 suggests strong recovery from lows
- 6M return of +128.8% indicates strong momentum
Watchpoints
- Erratic earnings surprises with average miss of -72.96% over last 4 quarters
- Long-term earnings volatility evident in historical data
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.99 indicates short-term liquidity strength
- Debt/equity of 0.11 shows conservative capital structure
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates critical financial weakness
- No Altman Z-Score available, suggesting high distress risk
- ROE of -0.43% and ROA of 0.52% reflect poor returns
Dividend
40/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 27.52% is sustainable in theory
- Dividend yield of 0.78% provides minor income
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score is only 25/100
- Unprofitable company paying dividends raises sustainability concerns
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$37.96
Analyst Target
$36.38
Upside/Downside
-4.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BTU and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
Primary
|
+1129.6% | +41.6% | +99.3% | +128.8% | +23.3% | +4.4% |
|
AROC
Archrock, Inc.
Peer
|
+281.4% | +240.6% | -2.8% | +21.6% | +8.0% | +5.2% |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
Peer
|
+56.5% | +56.5% | +6.5% | +43.1% | +2.9% | +7.3% |
|
BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
Peer
|
+412.1% | -21.2% | +31.8% | +60.4% | +5.1% | +0.6% |
|
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
Peer
|
+165.0% | -14.8% | +34.9% | +102.3% | +12.9% | +4.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
10.81
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.3
P/S Ratio
1.16
EV/Revenue
1.13
EV/EBITDA
10.48
Market Cap
$4.62B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-0.83%
Operating Margin
-1.84%
Gross Margin
13.85%
ROE
-0.43%
ROA
0.52%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-7.0%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.11
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.99
Good
Quick Ratio
1.14
Good
Cash/Share
$4.96
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.03
+120.5% surprise
2025-07-31
$-0.23
-266.4% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.33
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing BTU against 26 companies in the Energy sector
(0 bullish, 20 neutral, 6 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-0.43%
This Stock
vs
7.95%
Sector Avg
-105.4%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-0.83%
This Stock
vs
8.82%
Sector Avg
-109.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.11
This Stock
vs
0.68
Sector Avg
-83.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-7.0%
This Stock
vs
4.1%
Sector Avg
-270.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.99
This Stock
vs
1.18
Sector Avg
+68.3%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
|
BEARISH | $4.62B | - | -0.4% | -0.8% | $37.96 | |
|
AROC
Archrock, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.88B | 18.44 | 19.6% | 18.4% | $27.85 | |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $2.73B | 58.69 | 2.7% | 5.5% | $28.17 | |
|
BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
|
BEARISH | $2.55B | 16.6 | 5.3% | 7.0% | $3.32 | |
|
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $1.37B | 15.96 | 6.8% | 7.1% | $4.47 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | JARBOE SCOTT T | Officer | Sale | 2,151 | $73,693 |
| 2026-01-02 | GRECH JAMES C | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 41,965 | - |
| 2026-01-02 | SPURBECK MARK A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 14,626 | - |
| 2026-01-02 | YEATES DARREN RONALD | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 19,882 | - |
| 2026-01-02 | JARBOE SCOTT T | Officer | Stock Award | 12,222 | - |
| 2026-01-02 | ROBERTS MALCOLM J. | Officer | Stock Award | 8,148 | - |
| 2025-12-03 | LAYMON JOSEPH W | Director | Stock Award | 125 | $3,679 |
| 2025-12-03 | WALKER CLAYTON D | Director | Stock Award | 5 | $147 |
| 2025-12-03 | GRECH JAMES C | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 268 | $7,887 |
| 2025-12-03 | SPURBECK MARK A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 92 | $2,708 |
| 2025-12-03 | CHAMPION WILLIAM H. | Director | Stock Award | 95 | $2,796 |
| 2025-12-03 | HODGES GEORGANNE MARIE | Director | Stock Award | 6 | $177 |
| 2025-12-03 | BANKS MARGARET KATHERINE | Director | Stock Award | 43 | $1,265 |
| 2025-12-03 | YEATES DARREN RONALD | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 121 | $3,561 |
| 2025-12-03 | JARBOE SCOTT T | Officer | Stock Award | 73 | $2,148 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
6 analysts
Jefferies
2026-01-20
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-12-12
Neutral
Neutral
Benchmark
2025-10-31
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-10-08
Neutral
Neutral
Texas Capital Securities
2025-09-25
Buy
UBS
2025-09-19
Neutral
Neutral
B. Riley Securities
2025-09-09
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-08-20
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BTU from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.