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BUR Burford Capital Limited - Fundamental Analysis

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BUR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Financial Services Asset Management
Current Price Live
$9.75
Analyst Target
$19.12
+96.2% Upside
52W High
$15.73
52W Low
$8.19

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Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The deterministic health scores paint a concerning picture, with a Piotroski F-Score of just 3/9 indicating weak financial health, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability margins and a low Price/Book ratio, the company faces severe revenue contraction (YoY growth of -73.60%) and deeply negative earnings surprises, with 11 of the last 12 quarters missing or drastically underperforming estimates. While the stock trades below the Graham Number of $10.01, suggesting slight undervaluation, the weak fundamentals, deteriorating growth, and lack of insider support undermine this. The strong_buy analyst consensus appears overly optimistic given the deteriorating operational performance and bearish technical trend.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally high gross margin (97.76%) indicating strong pricing power or low cost structure
Low Price/Book ratio of 0.85, suggesting asset-based undervaluation
Healthy operating and profit margins despite revenue decline
Strong current and quick ratios (5.52) indicating robust short-term liquidity
Debt/Equity of 0.68 is below sector average of 1.53, signaling conservative leverage

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates severe financial weakness and high risk of continued underperformance
Catastrophic revenue growth decline of -73.60% YoY, far below sector average of +31.80%
Extreme earnings volatility with 11 of 12 quarters missing estimates, including multiple negative EPS surprises
Forward P/E of 6.15 appears low but may be misleading due to unsteady earnings and negative growth trajectory
Technical trend score of 0/100 confirms strong bearish momentum in price action
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$9.5
-2.6% below current price

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