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HTH

BEARISH
$36.8 Live
Hilltop Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Target $39.67 (+7.8%)
$28.73 52W Range $40.41

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$2.15B
P/E
13.99
ROE
7.6%
Profit margin
12.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
2.07%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Hilltop Holdings exhibits severe fundamental weakness, highlighted by a critical Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, indicating deteriorating financial health. While the stock appears undervalued based on the Graham Number ($46.42) and a low P/E of 13.99, this is offset by negative YoY revenue (-3.40%) and earnings growth (-1.50%). The significant discrepancy between the Graham Number and the growth-based Intrinsic Value ($18.41) suggests the market is pricing in a lack of growth. Combined with bearish insider activity and a 0/100 technical trend, the outlook is negative despite consistent earnings beats.

Key Strengths

Low P/E ratio (13.99) relative to sector averages
Price/Book ratio of 1.01 suggests the stock is trading near its liquidation value
Strong track record of beating analyst EPS estimates (3/4 last 4 quarters)
Sustainable dividend payout ratio (28.14%)
Low PEG ratio (0.61) suggesting potential value if growth recovers

Key Risks

Critical financial health deterioration (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
Negative year-over-year revenue and earnings growth
Bearish insider sentiment with nearly $10M in recent selling
Very low Return on Assets (1.06%) indicating poor asset utilization
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$27.41
-25.5% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
44
Moderate
Value
65
Future
30
Past
50
Health
20
Dividend
55
AI Verdict
Underperform
Key drivers: Poor Piotroski F-Score, Negative growth metrics, Insider divestment, Technical breakdown
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100

Ref P/E 13.99, PEG 0.61, Graham Number $46.42

Positives
  • P/E is low
  • P/B is near 1.0
Watchpoints
  • Intrinsic value is significantly lower than current price
Future
30/100

Ref Growth rates: Rev -3.40%, Earnings -1.50%

Positives
  • Consistent EPS surprises
Watchpoints
  • Negative YoY Revenue Growth
  • Negative YoY Earnings Growth
Past
50/100

Ref Historical trends and EPS track record

Positives
  • Positive 1Y and 3Y price performance
Watchpoints
  • Declining quarterly earnings progression
Health
20/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9 indicates weak financial health
Dividend
55/100

Ref Yield 2.07%, Payout 28.14%

Positives
  • Low payout ratio
Watchpoints
  • Low overall yield (2.07%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$36.8
Analyst Target
$39.67
Upside/Downside
+7.8%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HTH and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
Primary
5Y
+20.3%
3Y
+26.7%
1Y
+29.7%
6M
+13.0%
1M
+4.5%
1W
-3.0%
MAA
Maase Inc.
Peer
5Y
-97.5%
3Y
-98.2%
1Y
+52.9%
6M
+100.3%
1M
+10.7%
1W
+3.6%
BUR
Burford Capital Limited
Peer
5Y
+18.9%
3Y
+8.0%
1Y
-30.4%
6M
-29.2%
1M
+8.3%
1W
+0.3%
BAN
Banner Corporation
Peer
5Y
+44.9%
3Y
+8.0%
1Y
-9.8%
6M
-4.0%
1M
-5.8%
1W
-5.3%
PAX
Patria Investments Limited
Peer
5Y
+11.0%
3Y
+1.3%
1Y
+38.5%
6M
-6.7%
1M
+15.2%
1W
+5.2%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
13.99
Forward P/E
15.68
PEG Ratio
0.61
P/B Ratio
1.01
P/S Ratio
1.7
EV/Revenue
2.48
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$2.15B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 12.76%
Operating Margin 16.89%
Gross Margin N/A
ROE 7.56%
ROA 1.06%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -3.4%
Earnings Growth -1.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -5.63%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -10.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$30.11

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$0.3B
Net Margin
12.6%
Total Assets
$15.7B
Liabilities
$13.5B
Equity
$2.1B
Debt/Equity
6.31x
Operating CF
$-0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.1B
FCF Yield
105%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-07-23
$N/A
2026-04-23
$0.64
+30.6% surprise
2026-01-29
$0.69
+99.0% surprise
2025-10-23
$0.74
+46.5% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing HTH against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector (141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.99
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
-61.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.56%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-1132.3% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.76%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-86.1% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
-3.4%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
-109.6% (Slower)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

FURR WILLIAM B
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
46 shares · $1,483
THOMPSON STEPHEN B
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
697 shares · $22,471
FORD JEREMY B
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
697 shares · $22,471
PRESTIDGE COREY G
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-04-01
626 shares · $20,182
BORNEMANN KEITH E
Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
56 shares · $1,805
PARMENTER DARREN E
Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
449 shares · $14,476
WINGES MARTIN BRADLEY
Officer
Stock Award
2026-04-01
697 shares · $22,471
SOBEL JONATHAN S.
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
188 shares · $6,622
TAYLOR ROBERT C JR.
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
223 shares · $7,855
WEBB CARL B.
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
376 shares · $13,244
FEINBERG HILL A
Director
Gift
2026-03-10
1,500 shares
FORD GERALD J
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Sell
2026-03-05
259,771 shares · $9,866,960
SOBEL JONATHAN S.
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2026-02-27
110 shares
THOMPSON STEPHEN B
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-27
381 shares
FORD GERALD J
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Stock Award
2026-02-27
1,357 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-Q
10-Q
2026-04-24

HTH is experiencing a challenging operating environment in its mortgage origination segment due to macroeconomic pressures and customer sensitivity to interest rates, leading to variable operating results. The company warns that actual results may differ materially from current estimates depending on the duration of these business disruptions. Continued underperformance relative to projections may trigger significant impairment charges for goodwill and other intangible assets.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-23

HTH filed an 8-K on April 23, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-23

HTH filed an 8-K on April 23, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-K
10-K
2026-02-13

HTH filed its annual 10-K report on February 13, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk disclosures.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-05

HTH filed an 8-K on February 5, 2026, likely to announce its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-29

HTH filed an 8-K on January 29, 2026, likely to announce its financial results for the preceding quarter or fiscal year.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-29

HTH filed an 8-K on January 29, 2026, likely to announce its financial results for the preceding quarter or fiscal year.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-12-09
10-Q
10-Q
2025-10-24

HTH reports variable operating results driven by macroeconomic headwinds, specifically declining mortgage loan origination volumes and customer sensitivity to interest rates. The company warns that continued underperformance relative to projections may necessitate significant non-cash impairment charges to goodwill and other intangible assets.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-23

HTH filed an 8-K on October 23, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-23
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-08-29
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-07-29
10-Q
10-Q
2025-07-25
8-K
8-K
2025-07-24
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
3 analysts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-03
Maintains
Market Perform Market Perform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HTH from our newsroom.

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