BXMT
BEARISH
$20.08
Live
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. · NYSE
Target $21.29
(+6.0%)
$17.67
52W Range
$20.67
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 25, 2026
Market cap
$3.39B
P/E
31.38
ROE
3.0%
Profit margin
24.9%
Debt/Equity
4.62
Dividend yield
9.36%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
BXMT presents a high-risk profile characterized by a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a current price ($20.08) that significantly exceeds both its Graham Number ($17.19) and Intrinsic Value ($13.79). The most critical red flag is a dividend payout ratio of 293.75%, indicating the current yield is fundamentally unsustainable. This is compounded by a disastrous recent earnings track record, including a -866.7% surprise in the most recent quarter and zero beats in the last four reports. Despite strong top-line revenue growth, the combination of high leverage (Debt/Equity 4.62) and bearish insider activity suggests a value trap.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year revenue growth of 49.40%
Price-to-Book ratio of 0.98 suggests the stock is trading near its book value
Healthy profit margins (24.91%) and operating margins (23.33%)
High nominal dividend yield of 9.36% for income-focused investors
Positive analyst consensus recommendation of 'buy'
Key Risks
Extreme dividend payout ratio (293.75%) signaling an imminent dividend cut
Severe earnings deterioration with a recent Q/Q EPS growth of -962.5%
High financial leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.62
Bearish insider sentiment with consistent selling by the President and CFO
Trading at a premium to both Graham Number and Intrinsic Value estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$15.49
-22.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
31
Weak
40
30
35
40
10
AI Verdict
High Risk / Value Trap
Key drivers: Unsustainable dividend payout, Earnings collapse, High leverage, Overvaluation relative to Graham/Intrinsic metrics
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/B ratio under 1.0
Watchpoints
- Price exceeds Graham Number ($17.19)
- Price exceeds Intrinsic Value ($13.79)
- High P/E of 31.38
Future
30/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong revenue growth (49.4% YoY)
Watchpoints
- Negative PEG ratio (-0.25)
- Year-over-Year EPS growth of -65.6%
Past
35/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical consistency in beats prior to 2024
Watchpoints
- 0/4 beats in last 4 quarters
- Average surprise of -302.41% recently
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity ratio of 4.62 is significantly high
- Low ROE (3.01%)
Dividend
10/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High yield (9.36%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 293.75% is unsustainable
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$20.08
Analyst Target
$21.29
Upside/Downside
+6.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BXMT and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-24
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Primary
|
+3.0% | +64.7% | +18.5% | +14.8% | +8.3% | -0.7% |
|
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Peer
|
+35.3% | +30.8% | +25.2% | +20.6% | +7.7% | -1.0% |
|
COLD
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-60.6% | -49.4% | -31.7% | -2.8% | +15.8% | +0.2% |
|
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
Peer
|
+41.2% | +65.8% | +26.5% | +15.6% | +3.3% | -1.2% |
|
APLE
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.
Peer
|
+23.4% | -12.2% | -12.8% | +2.0% | +2.6% | -0.5% |
BXM
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+3.0%
3Y
+64.7%
1Y
+18.5%
6M
+14.8%
1M
+8.3%
1W
-0.7%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+35.3%
3Y
+30.8%
1Y
+25.2%
6M
+20.6%
1M
+7.7%
1W
-1.0%
COL
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-60.6%
3Y
-49.4%
1Y
-31.7%
6M
-2.8%
1M
+15.8%
1W
+0.2%
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
Peer
5Y
+41.2%
3Y
+65.8%
1Y
+26.5%
6M
+15.6%
1M
+3.3%
1W
-1.2%
APL
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+23.4%
3Y
-12.2%
1Y
-12.8%
6M
+2.0%
1M
+2.6%
1W
-0.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
31.38
Forward P/E
10.33
PEG Ratio
-0.25
P/B Ratio
0.98
P/S Ratio
7.7
EV/Revenue
43.53
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$3.39B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
24.91%
Operating Margin
23.33%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
3.0%
ROA
0.55%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+49.4%
Earnings Growth
+9.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+39.21%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+6.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
4.62
High debt
Current Ratio
94.52
Strong
Quick Ratio
94.38
Excellent
Cash/Share
$2.71
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.2B
Net Margin
24.8%
Total Assets
$20.0B
Liabilities
$16.5B
Equity
$3.5B
Debt/Equity
4.72x
Operating CF
$0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-11
$-2.07
-866.7% surprise
2025-10-29
$0.24
-12.5% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.19
-28.1% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing BXMT against 126 companies in the Real Estate sector
(5 bullish, 21 neutral, 100 bearish)
P/E Ratio
31.38
This Stock
vs
40.77
Sector Avg
-23.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.0%
This Stock
vs
-45.9%
Sector Avg
-106.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
24.91%
This Stock
vs
9.14%
Sector Avg
+172.6%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
4.62
This Stock
vs
2.79
Sector Avg
+65.7%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
49.4%
This Stock
vs
22108.13%
Sector Avg
-99.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
94.52
This Stock
vs
9.68
Sector Avg
+876.9%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BXMT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.39B | 31.38 | 3.0% | 24.9% | $20.08 | |
|
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.66B | 39.43 | 3.0% | 20.0% | $18.53 | Compare |
|
COLD
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.68B | - | -3.7% | -4.4% | $12.83 | Compare |
|
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
|
NEUTRAL | $3.71B | 23.96 | 10.1% | 19.9% | $32.11 | Compare |
|
APLE
Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.92B | 16.88 | 5.4% | 12.4% | $12.32 | Compare |
BXMT
Blackstone...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$3.4B
P/E
31.4
ROE
3.0%
Price
$20.08
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | SAGALYN LYNNE B | Director | Stock Award | 3,275 | $65,893 |
| 2026-04-15 | NASSAU HENRY N | Director | Stock Award | 2,531 | $50,924 |
| 2026-04-15 | COTTON LEONARD W | Director | Stock Award | 1,523 | $30,643 |
| 2026-04-15 | LYNCH NNENNA | Director | Stock Award | 803 | $16,156 |
| 2026-03-31 | PENA FERNANDO AUSTIN | President | Sale | 1,666 | $31,459 |
| 2026-03-17 | URBASZEK MARCIN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 452 | $8,647 |
| 2026-01-15 | SAGALYN LYNNE B | Director | Stock Award | 3,300 | $64,350 |
| 2026-01-15 | NASSAU HENRY N | Director | Stock Award | 2,550 | $49,725 |
| 2026-01-15 | COTTON LEONARD W | Director | Stock Award | 1,534 | $29,913 |
| 2026-01-15 | LYNCH NNENNA | Director | Stock Award | 809 | $15,776 |
| 2025-12-31 | PENA FERNANDO AUSTIN | President | Sale | 3,131 | $60,234 |
| 2025-12-24 | SAGALYN LYNNE B | Director | Gift | 10,777 | - |
| 2025-12-17 | MARONE ANTHONY F. JR. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,012 | $20,556 |
| 2025-12-17 | URBASZEK MARCIN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 400 | $8,116 |
| 2025-12-15 | MARONE ANTHONY F. JR. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 14,448 | - |
SAGALYN LYNNE B
Director
2026-04-15
3,275 shares
·
$65,893
NASSAU HENRY N
Director
2026-04-15
2,531 shares
·
$50,924
COTTON LEONARD W
Director
2026-04-15
1,523 shares
·
$30,643
LYNCH NNENNA
Director
2026-04-15
803 shares
·
$16,156
PENA FERNANDO AUSTIN
President
2026-03-31
1,666 shares
·
$31,459
URBASZEK MARCIN
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-17
452 shares
·
$8,647
SAGALYN LYNNE B
Director
2026-01-15
3,300 shares
·
$64,350
NASSAU HENRY N
Director
2026-01-15
2,550 shares
·
$49,725
COTTON LEONARD W
Director
2026-01-15
1,534 shares
·
$29,913
LYNCH NNENNA
Director
2026-01-15
809 shares
·
$15,776
PENA FERNANDO AUSTIN
President
2025-12-31
3,131 shares
·
$60,234
SAGALYN LYNNE B
Director
2025-12-24
10,777 shares
MARONE ANTHONY F. JR.
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-17
1,012 shares
·
$20,556
URBASZEK MARCIN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-17
400 shares
·
$8,116
MARONE ANTHONY F. JR.
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-15
14,448 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
10-K
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) filed its 10-K on February 11, 2026, providing a comprehensive overview of its business operations and financial condition. The filing includes detailed sections on risk factors and management's discussion and analysis, although specific financial metrics were not provided in the available excerpts.
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
7 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-16
Neutral
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-12
Outperform
Outperform
BTIG
2026-02-10
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-12-04
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-17
Market Perform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-30
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BXMT from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.