CAT Caterpillar Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
Sign in to save
Save this symbol to a watchlist or track a position.
CAT Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Current Price
Live
$646.89
Analyst Target
$609.11
-5.8%
Downside
52W High
$655.68
52W Low
$267.3
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$303.05B
P/E
33.21
ROE
46.3%
Profit margin
14.3%
Debt/Equity
2.01
Dividend yield
0.93%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals significant concerns, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial health and no available Altman Z-Score, raising transparency risks. Despite strong profitability metrics like a 46.28% ROE and solid revenue growth of 9.5%, the stock trades at a steep valuation (P/E 33.21, Price/Book 14.65) well above the Graham Number of $139.1 and intrinsic value of $136.36, suggesting substantial overvaluation. Earnings growth is negative year-over-year (-4.3%), insider selling is aggressive ($56.64M in net sales), and technical indicators are deeply bearish (10/100). While Caterpillar has delivered strong historical earnings surprises, recent misses and deteriorating momentum raise sustainability concerns.
Key Strengths
Exceptional return on equity (46.28%) indicating efficient use of shareholder capital
Strong revenue growth of 9.5% year-over-year, outpacing sector average of 6.02%
High gross margin (30.12%) reflecting pricing power and cost control
Consistent history of positive earnings surprises, with 22 out of 25 quarters beating estimates
Low payout ratio (29.48%) provides dividend sustainability despite modest yield
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score (4/9) signals deteriorating financial health and operational instability
Extremely high valuation: current price ($646.89) is 4.6x the Graham Number ($139.1), indicating severe overvaluation
Negative YoY earnings growth (-3.6%) and declining trend in recent quarters despite revenue growth
Aggressive insider selling: $56.64M in sales over last 6 months with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence
Very high debt/equity ratio (2.01), well above sector average (1.54), increasing financial risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$140.0
-78.4% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Weak
18
35
70
30
45
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals and negative insider activity
Key drivers: High P/E and Price/Book ratios, Low Piotroski F-Score, Negative earnings growth trend, Bearish insider trading, Missing Altman Z-Score
Confidence
80%
Value
18/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E (28.83) slightly below current P/E (33.21)
Watchpoints
- P/E of 33.21 significantly above sector average (31.80)
- Price/Book of 14.65 extremely high vs sector and historical norms
- Current price trades at 4.6x Graham Number ($139.1)
- No PEG ratio available, but negative earnings growth implies poor growth-adjusted value
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 9.5% YoY is strong
- Q/Q EPS growth of +4.9% shows some near-term momentum
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth YoY is -3.6%
- Q/Q earnings growth is -6.7%
- No PEG ratio suggests growth expectations are uncertain
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 22 out of 25 quarters beat EPS estimates
- Long streak of strong earnings surprises, including +29.5% and +48.0% in prior years
- 5-year price return of +264.6% reflects strong investor returns
Watchpoints
- Recent quarters show declining trend in earnings beats
- Last 4 quarters: only 1 beat, average surprise just 1.17%
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.38 indicates short-term liquidity
- ROA of 8.20% is decent for capital-intensive industry
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score reported, raising red flag
- Debt/Equity of 2.01 is high vs sector (1.54)
- Quick ratio of 0.78 suggests potential liquidity pressure
Dividend
45/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 29.48% is sustainable
- Dividend Strength score of 25/100 suggests room for improvement
Watchpoints
- Yield of 0.93% is low for a mature industrial
- No 5-year average yield data available
- Dividend growth not reflected in current metrics
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$646.89
Analyst Target
$609.11
Upside/Downside
-5.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CAT and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
Primary
|
+264.6% | +165.7% | +72.6% | +57.4% | +15.1% | +4.7% |
|
RTX
RTX Corporation
Peer
|
+226.5% | +119.5% | +70.8% | +34.4% | +13.9% | +7.1% |
|
GE
GE Aerospace
Peer
|
+483.8% | +413.9% | +81.9% | +23.8% | +11.4% | +1.1% |
|
BA
The Boeing Company
Peer
|
+24.0% | +18.9% | +41.3% | +8.2% | +15.6% | +1.8% |
|
GEV
GE Vernova Inc.
Peer
|
+341.7% | +341.7% | +77.8% | +35.2% | -6.1% | +0.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
33.21
Forward P/E
28.83
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
14.65
P/S Ratio
4.69
EV/Revenue
5.22
EV/EBITDA
24.19
Market Cap
$303.05B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
14.34%
Operating Margin
17.75%
Gross Margin
30.12%
ROE
46.28%
ROA
8.2%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.5%
Earnings Growth
-3.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-6.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.01
High debt
Current Ratio
1.38
Good
Quick Ratio
0.78
Poor
Cash/Share
$14.17
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-29
$N/A
2025-10-29
$4.95
+9.4% surprise
2025-08-05
$4.72
-3.7% surprise
2025-04-30
$4.25
-2.2% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing CAT against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
33.21
This Stock
vs
73.49
Sector Avg
-54.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
46.28%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
+490.9%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
14.34%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-75.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.01
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-63.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
9.5%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-58.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.38
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
-47.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
|
BEARISH | $303.05B | 33.21 | 46.3% | 14.3% | $646.89 | |
|
RTX
RTX Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $270.73B | 41.38 | 10.7% | 7.7% | $201.92 | |
|
GE
GE Aerospace
|
NEUTRAL | $344.77B | 43.41 | 42.1% | 18.3% | $325.12 | |
|
BA
The Boeing Company
|
BEARISH | $197.45B | - | -% | -12.2% | $252.15 | |
|
GEV
GE Vernova Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $156.91B | 94.34 | 16.7% | 4.5% | $578.31 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $5,750,589 |
| 2025-12-19 | FISH JAMES C JR | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | BONFIELD ANDREW ROBERT JOHN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $5,714,448 |
| 2025-11-28 | UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III | Officer | Gift | 2,350 | - |
| 2025-11-19 | SCHWAB SUSAN C | Director | Gift | 990 | - |
| 2025-11-11 | KAISER JASON | Officer | Option Exercise | 16,881 | $3,525,289 |
| 2025-11-11 | KAISER JASON | Officer | Sale | 10,707 | $6,034,490 |
| 2025-11-10 | FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Option Exercise | 12,500 | $2,458,750 |
| 2025-11-10 | FASSINO ANTHONY D. | Officer | Sale | 8,184 | $4,666,353 |
| 2025-11-06 | MACLENNAN DAVID W | Director | Purchase | 300 | $170,658 |
| 2025-11-05 | DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $3,022,400 |
| 2025-11-05 | SCHAUPP WILLIAM E | Officer | Sale | 1,200 | $686,664 |
| 2025-11-05 | DE LANGE BOB | Officer | Sale | 14,638 | $8,231,826 |
| 2025-10-10 | UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III | Officer | Sale | 17,166 | $8,673,808 |
| 2025-09-22 | UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III | Officer | Sale | 17,166 | $7,941,850 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning CAT from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.