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EFC

BEARISH
$13.14 Live
Ellington Financial Inc. · NYSE
Target $14.62 (+11.3%)
$11.28 52W Range $14.12

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 26, 2026
Market cap
$1.64B
P/E
11.04
ROE
8.7%
Profit margin
44.6%
Debt/Equity
9.1
Dividend yield
11.87%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
EFC exhibits severe fundamental weakness, highlighted by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, indicating poor financial health. While the Graham Number ($18.86) suggests defensive value, this is offset by an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 131.09% and a crashing YoY earnings growth of -45.30%. The company's extreme leverage (Debt/Equity of 9.10) and bearish technical trend (0/100) outweigh the optimistic analyst target prices. Overall, the stock presents as a classic dividend trap with deteriorating core profitability.

Key Strengths

Trading slightly below book value (P/B 0.99)
Strong profit margins (44.59%)
Positive analyst sentiment with a 'Buy' consensus
Attractive nominal dividend yield of 11.87%
Recent quarterly earnings beats (3 of last 4)

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (131.09%)
Extreme financial leverage (Debt/Equity 9.10)
Severe earnings contraction (-45.30% YoY)
Very weak financial health (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
High regulatory risk regarding Investment Company Act exclusion
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$10.6
-19.3% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
33
Weak
Value
55
Future
20
Past
45
Health
15
Dividend
30
AI Verdict
High Risk / Value Trap
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 2/9, Payout Ratio > 100%, Negative Earnings Growth, Extreme Leverage
Confidence
90%
Value
55/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • P/B near 1.0
  • Low Forward P/E (6.90)
  • Graham Number suggests upside
Watchpoints
  • Intrinsic value ($8.33) is well below current price
Future
20/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Slight Q/Q revenue growth (8%)
Watchpoints
  • YoY Earnings growth -45.30%
  • Bearish technical trend
Past
45/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Positive 1Y and 3Y price returns
  • Consistent history of earnings surprises
Watchpoints
  • Volatile EPS progression over 25 quarters
Health
15/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • High current ratio (8.95)
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
  • Debt/Equity 9.10
Dividend
30/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • Very high yield (11.87%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio 131.09% indicates dividend is not covered by earnings

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$13.14
Analyst Target
$14.62
Upside/Downside
+11.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EFC and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc.
Primary
5Y
+34.3%
3Y
+53.3%
1Y
+15.9%
6M
+4.7%
1M
+12.9%
1W
+1.4%
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-7.8%
3Y
-22.3%
1Y
-34.2%
6M
-32.0%
1M
-2.4%
1W
-6.4%
DHC
Diversified Healthcare Trust
Peer
5Y
+58.0%
3Y
+488.0%
1Y
+210.6%
6M
+60.9%
1M
-4.5%
1W
+4.5%
CCS
Century Communities, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-2.5%
3Y
-5.6%
1Y
+8.3%
6M
-4.4%
1M
+4.1%
1W
-4.0%
HBN
Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp.
Peer
5Y
-40.2%
3Y
-40.2%
1Y
-40.2%
6M
+89.9%
1M
-20.4%
1W
-16.2%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
11.04
Forward P/E
6.9
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.99
P/S Ratio
4.97
EV/Revenue
55.35
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.64B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 44.59%
Operating Margin 32.09%
Gross Margin 100.0%
ROE 8.71%
ROA 0.84%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -0.6%
Earnings Growth -45.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +8.0%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -28.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
9.1
High debt
Current Ratio
8.95
Strong
Quick Ratio
8.87
Excellent
Cash/Share
$6.4

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
30.3%
Total Assets
$19.4B
Liabilities
$17.5B
Equity
$1.8B
Debt/Equity
9.53x
Operating CF
$-0.3B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.3B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-25
$0.47
+2.4% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.53
+20.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.47
+16.6% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing EFC against 142 companies in the Real Estate sector (5 bullish, 25 neutral, 112 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.04
This Stock
vs
46.03
Sector Avg
-76.0% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.71%
This Stock
vs
-39.99%
Sector Avg
-121.8% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
44.59%
This Stock
vs
10.1%
Sector Avg
+341.3% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
9.1
This Stock
vs
2.68
Sector Avg
+239.4% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
-0.6%
This Stock
vs
19670.57%
Sector Avg
-100.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
8.95
This Stock
vs
8.82
Sector Avg
+1.5% (Better)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

MUMFORD LISA
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-31
7,657 shares
MUMFORD LISA
Director
Option Exercise
2025-12-31
7,657 shares · $103,982
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-09

EFC filed a Definitive Proxy Statement on April 9, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the company's upcoming annual meeting.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-07

Ellington Financial Inc. reported its first-quarter financial results for 2026.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-25
8-K
8-K
2026-03-09

Ellington Financial Inc. reported its annual financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-05

Ellington Financial Inc. filed a current report on March 5, 2026, likely announcing its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-K
10-K
2026-03-02

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) manages a diversified portfolio of credit assets, including Agency and Non-Agency RMBS, CMBS, consumer loans, and corporate CLOs. The company faces significant operational limitations to maintain its exclusion from registration as an investment company under the Investment Company Act. Additionally, EFC is subject to extensive federal and state regulatory oversight governing mortgage origination, credit reporting, and fair lending practices.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-26

Ellington Financial Inc. filed an 8-K, likely reporting its annual financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-09

Ellington Financial Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-03

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) likely reported its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-28

Ellington Financial Inc. filed an 8-K on January 28, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-28
8-K
8-K
2026-01-09
8-K
8-K
2025-12-30
8-K
8-K
2025-12-29
8-K
8-K
2025-12-04
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning EFC from our newsroom.

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