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ESRT

NEUTRAL
$5.56 Live
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. · NYSE
Target $6.61 (+18.9%)
$4.87 52W Range $8.76

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 27, 2026
Market cap
$951.07M
P/E
22.24
ROE
4.0%
Profit margin
6.2%
Debt/Equity
1.32
Dividend yield
2.52%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
ESRT presents as a classic value trap, trading below its Graham Number ($5.91) and Book Value (P/B 0.89), yet suffering from a total collapse in technical momentum (0/100). The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but mediocre financial health, while the massive jump in Forward P/E (from 22.24 to 92.67) signals an expected sharp contraction in future earnings. While the current price offers a margin of safety relative to assets, the structural headwinds of NYC office vacancy and extreme geographic concentration offset the valuation appeal.

Key Strengths

Trading below book value (P/B 0.89), suggesting asset-based support
Strong short-term liquidity with a Current Ratio of 2.61
Sustainable dividend payout ratio of 56%
Consistent history of beating quarterly earnings estimates (3/4 last year)
Price is currently below both Graham Number and Intrinsic Value estimates

Key Risks

Extreme geographic concentration in New York City real estate
Severe technical bearishness with a 0/100 trend score and -29.4% 6-month return
Stagnant revenue growth (0.80% YoY) indicating a lack of organic expansion
High Forward P/E (92.67) suggesting a significant projected earnings drop
Exposure to remote work trends and NYC-specific regulatory risks (Local Law 97)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$6.25
+12.4% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
52
Moderate
Value
75
Future
30
Past
40
Health
55
Dividend
60
AI Verdict
Value Trap Candidate
Key drivers: Asset-based undervaluation, Structural NYC office decline, Negative price momentum, Earnings volatility
Confidence
90%
Value
75/100

Ref P/E 22.24, PEG 37.36, Graham Number $5.91

Positives
  • Price < Graham Number
  • Price < Intrinsic Value
  • P/B < 1.0
Watchpoints
  • High PEG ratio (37.36) indicates poor growth-adjusted value
Future
30/100

Ref Growth rates and Forward P/E

Positives
  • Recent Q/Q EPS growth is high
Watchpoints
  • Forward P/E spike to 92.67
  • Revenue growth nearly flat at 0.80%
  • NYC office market headwinds
Past
40/100

Ref Historical price performance

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beats
Watchpoints
  • 5-year return of -46%
  • 1-year return of -20.1%
Health
55/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9

Positives
  • Current Ratio 2.61
  • Debt/Equity 1.32 is manageable for REIT sector
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 is only 'Stable'
  • Low ROE (4.05%)
Dividend
60/100

Ref Yield 2.52%, Payout 56%

Positives
  • Payout ratio 56% is conservative
Watchpoints
  • Yield (2.52%) is relatively low for a diversified REIT

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$5.56
Analyst Target
$6.61
Upside/Downside
+18.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ESRT and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24
ESR
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-46.0%
3Y
+0.0%
1Y
-20.1%
6M
-29.4%
1M
+11.0%
1W
+1.1%
EXP
eXp World Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-84.6%
3Y
-47.3%
1Y
-31.9%
6M
-44.3%
1M
-5.8%
1W
+1.0%
SVC
Service Properties Trust
Peer
5Y
-85.1%
3Y
-81.8%
1Y
-19.9%
6M
-36.0%
1M
-31.1%
1W
+14.3%
AIV
Apartment Investment and Management Company
Peer
5Y
+84.8%
3Y
+15.4%
1Y
-7.9%
6M
-5.0%
1M
-1.2%
1W
-0.8%
BFS
Saul Centers, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+35.2%
3Y
-8.1%
1Y
-6.4%
6M
-1.2%
1M
+1.6%
1W
-1.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
22.24
Forward P/E
92.67
PEG Ratio
37.36
P/B Ratio
0.89
P/S Ratio
1.24
EV/Revenue
5.18
EV/EBITDA
12.67
Market Cap
$951.07M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.2%
Operating Margin 17.77%
Gross Margin 52.46%
ROE 4.05%
ROA 1.89%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +0.8%
Earnings Growth +75.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +0.82%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +69.6%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
1.32
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.61
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.41
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.8

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Gross Margin
52.4%
Op. Margin
17.8%
Net Margin
10.4%
Total Assets
$4.5B
Liabilities
$2.6B
Equity
$1.1B
Debt/Equity
2.50x
Operating CF
$0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-29
$N/A
2024-07-24
$0.1
+130.0% surprise
2024-04-24
$0.03
+998.2% surprise
2024-02-20
$0.06
+363.0% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing ESRT against 158 companies in the Real Estate sector (6 bullish, 31 neutral, 121 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.24
This Stock
vs
42.45
Sector Avg
-47.6% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
4.05%
This Stock
vs
-35.03%
Sector Avg
-111.6% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
6.2%
This Stock
vs
11.41%
Sector Avg
-45.6% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.32
This Stock
vs
2.5
Sector Avg
-47.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
0.8%
This Stock
vs
17600.73%
Sector Avg
-100.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
2.61
This Stock
vs
8.23
Sector Avg
-68.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

SUTHERLAND DONNA JEAN
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-13
11,584 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
FORM-DEF 14A
2026-04-02

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed a definitive proxy statement on April 2, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2026-03-02

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) operates a New York City-centric portfolio comprising approximately 7.9 million square feet of office space, 0.8 million square feet of retail space, and 743 residential units as of December 31, 2025. The company faces significant risk due to its high geographic concentration in NYC, leaving it exposed to local economic volatility, remote work trends, and regulatory changes. Additional risks include tenant defaults and fluctuations in the retail and tourism markets.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-05

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its quarterly 10-Q report on November 5, 2025. While specific financial metrics were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for risk factors under Item 1A.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-06

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its quarterly 10-Q report on August 6, 2025. While the filing includes a section dedicated to risk factors, specific financial highlights and detailed risk disclosures were not provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-05-19

Empire State Realty Trust likely reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-07

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its 10-Q quarterly report on May 7, 2025. The filing includes a section dedicated to risk factors under Item 1A, although specific financial highlights and risk details were not provided in the available excerpts.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-04-03

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) filed a definitive proxy statement on April 3, 2025, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2025-02-28

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its annual 10-K report on February 28, 2025. Due to the absence of provided excerpts, specific financial highlights and risk factors for the period are not available for summary.

10-Q
10-Q
2024-11-08

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its quarterly 10-Q report on November 8, 2024. The filing provides the company's most recent financial performance metrics and updated disclosures regarding its operational risks.

10-Q
10-Q
2024-10-08

Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) filed its quarterly 10-Q report on October 8, 2024. The filing provides the latest financial updates and risk disclosures pertaining to the company's real estate portfolio and operational performance.

8-K
8-K
2024-05-15
10-Q
10-Q
2024-05-07
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
5 analysts
Citigroup
2026-04-15
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-03-02
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
Citigroup
2026-02-19
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Evercore ISI Group
2026-02-18
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Wells Fargo
2025-11-25
Maintains
Underweight Underweight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning ESRT from our newsroom.

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