GEO

NEUTRAL

$18.83 Live

The GEO Group, Inc. · NYSE

Target $29.5 (+56.7%)

$12.51 52W Range $32.09

GEO The GEO Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL

Console Chart News

GEO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Industrials • Security & Protection Services

Current Price Live

$18.83

Analyst Target

$29.5

+56.7% Upside

52W High

$32.09

52W Low

$12.51

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 27, 2026

Market cap

$2.5B

P/E

10.35

ROE

17.9%

Profit margin

9.7%

Debt/Equity

1.15

Dividend yield

N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

85%

GEO presents a stark contrast between deep value and deteriorating financial health, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. While the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its Graham Number ($21.47) and Intrinsic Value ($53.69), and boasts explosive YoY earnings growth of 117.7%, these fundamentals are offset by bearish insider sentiment and a 0/100 technical trend. The strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy) and low PEG ratio (0.74) suggest high upside potential, but the low F-Score indicates underlying operational or balance sheet weaknesses that necessitate caution.

Key Strengths

Significant undervaluation with a P/E of 10.35 and PEG of 0.74

Explosive YoY earnings growth of 117.70%

Strong liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 2.01 and Quick Ratio of 1.88

Robust Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.92%

Trading below both the Graham Number and the analyst target price of $29.50

Key Risks

Weak financial health indicated by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9

Bearish insider sentiment with recent selling activity

Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100)

High volatility in 1-year price performance (-37.2%)

Lack of dividend yield providing no downside cushion for investors

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$26.5

+40.7% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Moderate

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

Value Trap Risk

Key drivers: Deep valuation discount, High earnings growth, Poor Piotroski health score, Bearish technicals/insiders

Confidence

80%

Value

90/100

Ref P/E 10.35, PEG 0.74, Graham Number $21.47

Positives

P/E well below sector average
PEG < 1.0
Price below Graham Number

Watchpoints

Price/Book is slightly elevated at 1.67

Future

85/100

Ref Growth rates: Earnings +117.7% YoY

Positives

Triple-digit earnings growth
Consistent revenue growth (16.5%)

Watchpoints

Recent quarterly earnings misses (2/4)

Past

50/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives

Strong 3Y and 5Y returns

Watchpoints

Poor 1Y performance (-37.2%)

Health

30/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score 3/9

Positives

Healthy Current Ratio (2.01)

Watchpoints

Piotroski F-Score 3/9 indicates weak health

Dividend

0/100

Ref Yield N/A, Payout 0.00%

Positives

No standout positives identified.

Watchpoints

No dividend paid
0/100 dividend strength

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$18.83

Analyst Target

$29.5

Upside/Downside

+56.7%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GEO and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
GEO The GEO Group, Inc. Primary	+220.2%	+163.0%	-37.2%	+9.0%	+7.6%	+1.2%
AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc. Peer	+89.0%	+322.8%	+747.5%	+81.9%	+93.5%	+1.7%
CDLR Cadeler A/S Peer	+50.7%	+50.7%	+28.9%	+39.2%	+9.2%	+5.1%
ATKR Atkore Inc. Peer	+58.7%	-38.1%	-15.0%	-8.4%	+10.9%	+0.3%
XMTR Xometry, Inc. Peer	-46.4%	+225.1%	+97.0%	-6.7%	+13.1%	-0.1%

GEO

The GEO Group, Inc.

Primary

+220.2%

+163.0%

-37.2%

+9.0%

+7.6%

+1.2%

AMP

Amprius Technologies, Inc.

Peer

+89.0%

+322.8%

+747.5%

+81.9%

+93.5%

+1.7%

CDL

Cadeler A/S

Peer

+50.7%

+28.9%

+39.2%

+9.2%

+5.1%

ATK

Atkore Inc.

Peer

+58.7%

-38.1%

-15.0%

-8.4%

+10.9%

+0.3%

XMT

Xometry, Inc.

Peer

-46.4%

+225.1%

+97.0%

-6.7%

+13.1%

-0.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

10.35

10.58

0.74

1.67

0.95

1.57

9.64

$2.5B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 9.67%

Operating Margin 12.13%

Gross Margin 25.2%

ROE 17.92%

ROA 4.97%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +16.5%

Earnings Growth +117.7%

Q/Q Revenue Growth +16.45%

Q/Q Earnings Growth +105.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

1.15

Moderate

Current Ratio

2.01

Strong

Quick Ratio

1.88

Excellent

Cash/Share

$0.52

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue

$0.7B

Op. Margin

11.8%

Net Margin

4.5%

Total Assets

$3.8B

Liabilities

$2.3B

Equity

$1.5B

Debt/Equity

1.55x

Operating CF

$-0.1B

CapEx

$-0.0B

Free Cash Flow

$-0.2B

FCF Yield

131%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06

$N/A

2026-02-12

$0.25

2025-11-06

$0.25

+8.7% surprise

2025-08-06

$0.22

+35.8% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing GEO against 442 companies in the Industrials sector (38 bullish, 159 neutral, 245 bearish)

P/E Ratio

10.35

This Stock

75.66

Sector Avg

-86.3% (Discount)

Return on Equity (ROE)

17.92%

This Stock

-20.3%

Sector Avg

-188.3% (Below Avg)

Profit Margin

9.67%

This Stock

6.49%

Sector Avg

+48.8% (Superior)

Debt to Equity

1.15

This Stock

2.71

Sector Avg

-57.6% (Less Debt)

Revenue Growth

16.5%

This Stock

74.93%

Sector Avg

-78.0% (Slower)

Current Ratio

2.01

This Stock

3.16

Sector Avg

-36.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
GEO The GEO Group, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$2.5B	10.35	17.9%	9.7%	$18.83
AMPX Amprius Technologies, Inc.	BULLISH	$2.47B	-	-50.8%	-60.3%	$18.9	Compare
CDLR Cadeler A/S	BULLISH	$2.55B	6.94	20.5%	45.2%	$26.38	Compare
ATKR Atkore Inc.	BEARISH	$2.44B	-	-1.0%	-0.5%	$72.2	Compare
XMTR Xometry, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$2.43B	-	-20.8%	-9.0%	$46.88	Compare

GEO The GEO Group, Inc.

NEUTRAL

Mkt Cap

$2.5B

P/E

10.3

ROE

17.9%

Price

$18.83

Compare with GEO

Compare with GEO

Compare with GEO

Compare with GEO

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date	Insider	Position	Transaction	Shares	Value
2026-04-01	MARCH SHAYN P	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	12,175	-
2026-03-06	ARDUIN DONNA KAURANEN	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	WOOD JULIE MYERS	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	MARCH SHAYN P	Officer and Treasurer	Stock Award	19,566	-
2026-03-06	BRACK RONALD A	Officer	Stock Award	14,515	-
2026-03-06	LONG RICHARD KENT	Officer	Stock Award	22,518	-
2026-03-06	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	BREWER JACK	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	BARTZOKIS THOMAS C.	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	ALBENCE MATTHEW T.	Officer	Stock Award	25,019	-
2026-03-06	KOREN LINDSAY L	Director	Stock Award	10,246	-
2026-03-06	RYAN CHRISTOPHER D	Officer	Stock Award	18,461	-
2026-03-06	MANNARINO NICOLE	Officer	Stock Award	657	-
2026-03-05	ZOLEY GEORGE C	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	200,000	-
2026-03-04	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL	Director	Sale	6,633	$101,087

MARCH SHAYN P

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2026-04-01

12,175 shares

ARDUIN DONNA KAURANEN

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

WOOD JULIE MYERS

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

MARCH SHAYN P

Officer and Treasurer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

19,566 shares

BRACK RONALD A

Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

14,515 shares

LONG RICHARD KENT

Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

22,518 shares

KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

BREWER JACK

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

BARTZOKIS THOMAS C.

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

ALBENCE MATTHEW T.

Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

25,019 shares

KOREN LINDSAY L

Director

Stock Award

2026-03-06

10,246 shares

RYAN CHRISTOPHER D

Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

18,461 shares

MANNARINO NICOLE

Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-06

657 shares

ZOLEY GEORGE C

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-05

200,000 shares

KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL

Director

Sell

2026-03-04

6,633 shares · $101,087

Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A

2026-03-19

GEO filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on March 19, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information for voting at the company's annual meeting.

8-K

2026-03-05

GEO Group, Inc. filed an 8-K on March 5, 2026, likely to announce its financial results for the preceding fiscal period.

10-K

2026-02-25

GEO submitted its annual 10-K filing on February 25, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk disclosures, limiting the available analysis of the company's current financial performance and operational risks.

8-K

2026-02-12

GEO Group, Inc. likely filed this 8-K to report its fourth quarter and full-year financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

8-K

2026-02-12

GEO Group, Inc. likely filed this 8-K to report its fourth quarter and full-year financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

8-K

2026-01-26

GEO Group, Inc. filed an 8-K likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K

2025-12-08

8-K

2025-11-18

GEO Group, Inc. filed an 8-K on November 18, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q

2025-11-06

GEO filed its 10-Q on November 6, 2025, which includes a dedicated section for risk factors. No specific financial highlights or detailed risk descriptions were provided in the available excerpts.

8-K

2025-11-06

GEO Group, Inc. likely reported its third-quarter financial results.

8-K

2025-10-02

8-K

2025-08-18

10-Q

2025-08-06

8-K

2025-08-06

8-K

2025-07-17

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

STRONG_BUY

4 analysts

Jones Trading

2026-03-20

Maintains

Buy Buy

Jones Trading

2026-02-13

Maintains

Buy Buy

Jones Trading

2025-11-07

Maintains

Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning GEO from our newsroom.

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GEO

GEO The GEO Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Industrials Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Recent Insider Trading

SEC Filings

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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