HCC

NEUTRAL

$87.47 Live

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · NYSE

Target $105.67 (+20.8%)

$40.8 52W Range $105.34

HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL

Console Chart News

HCC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Basic Materials • Coking Coal

Current Price Live

$87.47

Analyst Target

$105.67

+20.8% Upside

52W High

$105.34

52W Low

$40.8

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026

Market cap

$4.62B

P/E

80.99

ROE

2.7%

Profit margin

4.3%

Debt/Equity

0.13

Dividend yield

0.37%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

80%

Warrior Met Coal (HCC) presents a stark contrast between its pristine balance sheet and its current valuation. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial health and the company maintains exceptionally low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.13), the stock is trading at a massive premium to its Graham Number ($31.46) and Intrinsic Value ($31.86). The discrepancy between the trailing P/E (80.99) and Forward P/E (9.65) suggests the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery, but current ROE (2.69%) and ROA (1.06%) remain anemic.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally low Debt/Equity ratio (0.13)

Strong liquidity with a Current Ratio of 3.19

Robust YoY Revenue growth of 29.40%

Attractive Forward P/E of 9.65 suggesting future earnings growth

Strong long-term price performance (5Y Change +441.3%)

Key Risks

Severe overvaluation relative to Graham Number and Intrinsic Value

Very low profitability metrics (ROE 2.69%, Profit Margin 4.35%)

Bearish insider sentiment with significant selling by the CEO

Negative technical trend (0/100) and recent 1-month price decline

High volatility in quarterly earnings surprises

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$34.5

-60.6% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Moderate

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

Speculative Growth

Key drivers: Balance sheet strength, Valuation gap, Forward earnings expectations, Insider selling

Confidence

85%

Value

20/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives

Low Forward P/E

Watchpoints

Trailing P/E of 80.99
Price is ~177% above Graham Number

Future

75/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives

Strong revenue growth
Positive analyst target price ($105.67)

Watchpoints

Recent Q/Q EPS decline of 37.1%

Past

65/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives

Strong 1Y and 5Y returns
Consistent revenue expansion

Watchpoints

Erratic earnings track record

Health

70/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives

Very low debt
High current/quick ratios

Watchpoints

Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9

Dividend

30/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives

Sustainable payout ratio (29.63%)

Watchpoints

Negligible yield (0.37%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$87.47

Analyst Target

$105.67

Upside/Downside

+20.8%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HCC and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Primary	+441.3%	+159.7%	+79.9%	+36.0%	-11.8%	-0.4%
MEOH Methanex Corporation Peer	+66.5%	+38.8%	+123.6%	+61.9%	+15.9%	-3.0%
ALM Almonty Industries Inc. Peer	+749.7%	+1577.8%	+399.8%	+264.3%	+31.4%	-20.2%
EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. Peer	-60.1%	-60.1%	-60.1%	-60.1%	-7.2%	-7.9%
CSTM Constellium SE Peer	+91.8%	+130.7%	+234.2%	+85.7%	+23.0%	+6.1%

HCC

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

Primary

+441.3%

+159.7%

+79.9%

+36.0%

-11.8%

-0.4%

MEO

Methanex Corporation

Peer

+66.5%

+38.8%

+123.6%

+61.9%

+15.9%

-3.0%

ALM

Almonty Industries Inc.

Peer

+749.7%

+1577.8%

+399.8%

+264.3%

+31.4%

-20.2%

EMA

Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp.

Peer

-60.1%

-7.2%

-7.9%

CST

Constellium SE

Peer

+91.8%

+130.7%

+234.2%

+85.7%

+23.0%

+6.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

80.99

9.65

N/A

2.15

3.52

3.44

18.86

$4.62B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 4.35%

Operating Margin 9.01%

Gross Margin 22.99%

ROE 2.69%

ROA 1.06%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +29.4%

Earnings Growth +1918.0%

Q/Q Revenue Growth +29.09%

Q/Q Earnings Growth +1921.3%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

0.13

Low debt

Current Ratio

3.19

Strong

Quick Ratio

2.08

Excellent

Cash/Share

$6.72

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue

$0.4B

Gross Margin

13.7%

Op. Margin

9.0%

Net Margin

6.0%

Total Assets

$2.8B

Liabilities

$0.6B

Equity

$2.1B

Debt/Equity

0.30x

Operating CF

$0.1B

CapEx

$-0.1B

Free Cash Flow

$-0.0B

FCF Yield

-24%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-30

$N/A

2026-02-12

$0.44

-25.2% surprise

2025-11-05

$0.7

+236.3% surprise

2025-08-06

$0.11

+130.3% surprise

Basic Materials Sector Comparison

Comparing HCC against 143 companies in the Basic Materials sector (14 bullish, 54 neutral, 75 bearish)

P/E Ratio

80.99

This Stock

38.86

Sector Avg

+108.4% (Expensive)

Return on Equity (ROE)

2.69%

This Stock

-6.64%

Sector Avg

-140.6% (Below Avg)

Profit Margin

4.35%

This Stock

-5.75%

Sector Avg

-175.5% (Weaker)

Debt to Equity

0.13

This Stock

0.89

Sector Avg

-85.8% (Less Debt)

Revenue Growth

29.4%

This Stock

36.56%

Sector Avg

-19.6% (Slower)

Current Ratio

3.19

This Stock

5.16

Sector Avg

-38.2% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$4.62B	80.99	2.7%	4.3%	$87.47
MEOH Methanex Corporation	BEARISH	$4.62B	64.25	5.7%	2.2%	$59.75	Compare
ALM Almonty Industries Inc.	BEARISH	$4.56B	-	-57.3%	-216.3%	$17.78	Compare
EMAT Evolution Metals &...	BEARISH	$4.5B	-	-%	-%	$7.58	Compare
CSTM Constellium SE	NEUTRAL	$4.27B	16.34	32.4%	3.2%	$31.38	Compare

HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

NEUTRAL

Mkt Cap

$4.6B

P/E

81.0

ROE

2.7%

Price

$87.47

MEOH Methanex Corporation

Compare with HCC

ALM Almonty Industries Inc.

Compare with HCC

Compare with HCC

Compare with HCC

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date	Insider	Position	Transaction	Shares	Value
2026-02-10	CHOPIN BRIAN M	Officer	Stock Award	421	-
2026-02-10	GANT KELLI K	Officer	Stock Award	1,438	-
2026-02-10	RICHARDSON JACK K	Chief Operating Officer	Stock Award	2,157	-
2026-02-10	LUSSIER CHARLES	Officer	Stock Award	1,150	-
2026-02-10	BOYLES DALE W	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	1,780	-
2026-02-10	SCHELLER WALTER J III	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	4,776	-
2026-02-09	CHOPIN BRIAN M	Officer	Stock Award	6,052	-
2026-02-09	GANT KELLI K	Officer	Stock Award	26,606	-
2026-02-09	RICHARDSON JACK K	Chief Operating Officer	Stock Award	39,408	-
2026-02-09	LUSSIER CHARLES	Officer	Stock Award	20,614	-
2026-02-09	BOYLES DALE W	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	33,076	-
2026-02-09	SCHELLER WALTER J III	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	117,650	-
2026-02-06	CHOPIN BRIAN M	Officer	Stock Award	876	-
2026-02-06	GANT KELLI K	Officer	Stock Award	2,996	-
2026-02-06	RICHARDSON JACK K	Chief Operating Officer	Stock Award	4,411	-

CHOPIN BRIAN M

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

421 shares

GANT KELLI K

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

1,438 shares

RICHARDSON JACK K

Chief Operating Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

2,157 shares

LUSSIER CHARLES

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

1,150 shares

BOYLES DALE W

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

1,780 shares

SCHELLER WALTER J III

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-10

4,776 shares

CHOPIN BRIAN M

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

6,052 shares

GANT KELLI K

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

26,606 shares

RICHARDSON JACK K

Chief Operating Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

39,408 shares

LUSSIER CHARLES

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

20,614 shares

BOYLES DALE W

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

33,076 shares

SCHELLER WALTER J III

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-09

117,650 shares

CHOPIN BRIAN M

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-06

876 shares

GANT KELLI K

Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-06

2,996 shares

RICHARDSON JACK K

Chief Operating Officer

Stock Award

2026-02-06

4,411 shares

Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K

2026-04-21

HCC likely filed this 8-K to announce its first-quarter financial results for 2026.

DEF 14A

2026-03-10

HCC filed a Definitive Proxy Statement (DEF 14A) on March 10, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the company's annual meeting.

10-K

2026-02-12

HCC submitted its annual 10-K filing on February 12, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk disclosures.

8-K

2026-02-12

HCC likely filed this 8-K to announce its annual financial results for the fiscal year ending 2025.

8-K

2026-01-16

10-Q

2025-11-05

HCC filed its 10-Q on November 5, 2025. The provided excerpt does not contain specific financial highlights or detailed risk factors beyond the identification of Item 1A.

8-K

2025-11-05

HCC filed an 8-K on November 5, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K

2025-09-26

8-K

2025-09-02

10-Q

2025-08-06

HCC submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on August 6, 2025. While the filing includes a dedicated section for risk factors under Item 1A, specific financial highlights and detailed risk descriptions were not provided in the available excerpt.

8-K

2025-08-06

8-K

2025-08-01

8-K

2025-04-30

10-Q

2025-04-30

8-K

2025-04-24

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

BUY

6 analysts

UBS

2026-03-27

Maintains

Buy Buy

Citigroup

2026-03-18

Maintains

Buy Buy

UBS

2026-03-12

Maintains

Buy Buy

B. Riley Securities

2026-02-13

Maintains

Buy Buy

UBS

2026-01-29

Neutral Buy

Jefferies

2026-01-20

Maintains

Buy Buy

UBS

2025-12-12

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

UBS

2025-11-24

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

UBS

2025-11-06

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

BMO Capital

2025-11-06

Maintains

Market Perform Market Perform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HCC from our newsroom.

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HCC

HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Basic Materials Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Recent Insider Trading

SEC Filings

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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