HSY
NEUTRAL
$179.2
Live
The Hershey Company · NYSE
Target $188.54
(+5.2%)
$140.13
52W Range
$208.03
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$36.12B
P/E
26.83
ROE
31.0%
Profit margin
11.8%
Debt/Equity
1.26
Dividend yield
3.06%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
Hershey (HSY) trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and a resilient brand, but faces near-term headwinds reflected in declining earnings and insider selling. Despite a strong quarterly earnings surprise trend over the past two years, YoY EPS has contracted sharply (-44.4%), and operating margins have compressed amid cost pressures. The stock is down 10.8% over 3Y and remains 14% below its 52-week high, though recent 6M performance (+13.9%) suggests stabilization. Relative to peers like KMB and CL, HSY exhibits better growth and lower leverage than most, but its P/E of 26.8x exceeds the sector average of 22.5x and forward P/E of 21.3x offers limited upside given earnings volatility.
Key Strengths
ROE of 31.01% demonstrates efficient use of equity capital, well above the sector average of 120.59% when excluding outliers like CL (293.63%) and KMB (136.88%)
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of +16.89%, indicating strong operational execution and conservative guidance
Revenue growth of 6.5% YoY outpaces peer average of 5.46%, showing pricing power and demand resilience in a defensive sector
Dividend yield of 3.06% is attractive in the consumer defensive space and supported by long-term payout discipline
Debt/Equity of 1.26 is significantly lower than sector average of 3.28, reducing refinancing and interest rate risk
Key Risks
Earnings growth collapse: YoY EPS down -38.2%, Q/Q down -38.1%, signaling severe margin pressure or one-time charges that could persist
High P/E ratio of 26.83 vs forward P/E of 21.33 implies significant multiple contraction is priced in, leaving little room for error
Payout ratio of 81.91% is elevated for a company with earnings volatility, raising sustainability concerns if profitability does not rebound
Insider selling by CFO and other directors totaling $0.88M in the last 6 months signals lack of confidence at the executive level
Quick ratio of 0.66 indicates tight liquidity, below the current ratio of 1.36 and suggesting inventory-heavy working capital constraints
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$185.0
+3.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
68
Strong
58
62
74
70
76
AI Verdict
HSY presents a mixed profile: fundamentally sound with strong brand equity and sector-relative balance sheet health, yet hampered by near-term earnings deterioration and premium valuation. While it outperforms peers like TGT and KMB in growth and leverage, it lags MNST in momentum and trades at a steeper multiple than CL or KMB without superior growth to justify it. The stock appears fairly valued with limited upside unless earnings recover in 2025-2026 as implied by the forward P/E compression.
Key drivers: Earnings recovery trajectory, Margin stabilization, Dividend sustainability
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100
HSY trades at a valuation premium to most peers except MNST, but lacks the double-digit revenue growth of MNST (16.8%) to justify such a multiple, making it appear relatively expensive in the sector.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 21.33 is more reasonable than current P/E of 26.83, suggesting market expects normalization
- Price/Sales of 3.14 is in line with premium consumer brands and below MNST's 7.2x (implied)
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 26.83 is above sector average of 22.53 and peer CL's 21.86, despite slower growth
- Price/Book of 7.96 is high for a low-growth confectioner, indicating rich intangible asset pricing
Future
62/100
Despite strong revenue momentum, earnings are in freefall, and price action shows a choppy recovery—down 6.5% in the last month but up 13.9% over 6M—indicating investor skepticism about near-term profitability despite bullish macro positioning in consumer staples.
Positives
- Revenue growth of 6.5% YoY shows pricing power and volume resilience in inflationary environment
- Analyst target price of $188.55 implies 5.2% upside, suggesting modest confidence in recovery
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth of -38.2% YoY raises concerns about cost structure and input cost exposure
- No Q/Q growth data available, but recent EPS decline suggests ongoing margin pressure
Past
74/100
HSY has a proven track record of beating expectations and maintaining margin discipline over five years, but the last two quarters have shown material deterioration in earnings quality, coinciding with underperformance in share price despite a 5Y gain of +29.8%.
Positives
- Impressive earnings beat record: 21 out of 25 quarters beat estimates, with 13 exceeding by double digits
- Long-term profitability is stable: gross margin of 37.73% and operating margin of 13.54% reflect brand strength
Watchpoints
- Recent misses in Q3 and Q4 2024 (e.g., -32.5% surprise in Aug 2024) break a long streak of consistency
- 3Y price return of -10.8% underperforms sector and broader market, reflecting multiple contraction
Health
70/100
HSY’s leverage is conservative relative to peers like CL (6.80) and KMB (5.00), but weak liquidity metrics suggest potential strain in working capital management, especially in a rising interest rate or supply chain disruption scenario.
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 1.26 is well below sector average of 3.28, providing structural financial flexibility
- Operating in a defensive sector reduces revenue cyclicality and supports cash flow stability
Watchpoints
- Quick ratio of 0.66 indicates limited liquid assets to cover short-term liabilities, raising operational risk
- Lack of cash/debt figures limits visibility into net leverage and refinancing risk
Dividend
76/100
The dividend is a key investor attraction, offering yield above sector peers like TGT (2.8%) and KMB (4.1%), but its sustainability is increasingly tied to a rebound in earnings after a sharp drop in profitability.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.06% is attractive in the current rate environment and above peer average
- Long history of dividend increases reflects commitment to shareholder returns
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 81.91% is high, particularly given recent earnings decline, increasing risk of a cut if trends continue
- No 5-year average yield data limits assessment of policy consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$179.2
Analyst Target
$188.54
Upside/Downside
+5.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HSY and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
Primary
|
+29.8% | -10.8% | +3.5% | +13.9% | -6.5% | +5.0% |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Peer
|
-16.5% | -18.2% | -22.7% | -1.4% | +0.8% | +2.1% |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Peer
|
-12.5% | -9.4% | -18.0% | -23.8% | -13.3% | +0.2% |
|
FMX
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.
Peer
|
+64.0% | +33.8% | +11.3% | +21.0% | +6.5% | -1.9% |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Peer
|
+46.2% | -13.3% | +38.5% | +24.1% | +16.8% | +3.6% |
HSY
The Hershey Company
Primary
5Y
+29.8%
3Y
-10.8%
1Y
+3.5%
6M
+13.9%
1M
-6.5%
1W
+5.0%
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Peer
5Y
-16.5%
3Y
-18.2%
1Y
-22.7%
6M
-1.4%
1M
+0.8%
1W
+2.1%
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Peer
5Y
-12.5%
3Y
-9.4%
1Y
-18.0%
6M
-23.8%
1M
-13.3%
1W
+0.2%
FMX
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.
Peer
5Y
+64.0%
3Y
+33.8%
1Y
+11.3%
6M
+21.0%
1M
+6.5%
1W
-1.9%
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Peer
5Y
+46.2%
3Y
-13.3%
1Y
+38.5%
6M
+24.1%
1M
+16.8%
1W
+3.6%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
26.83
Forward P/E
21.33
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
7.96
P/S Ratio
3.14
EV/Revenue
3.56
EV/EBITDA
16.7
Market Cap
$36.12B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
11.84%
Operating Margin
13.54%
Gross Margin
37.73%
ROE
31.01%
ROA
9.33%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
Earnings Growth
-38.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-38.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.26
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.36
Good
Quick Ratio
0.66
Poor
Cash/Share
$5.74
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-30
$1.3
+22.2% surprise
2025-07-30
$1.21
+20.4% surprise
2025-05-01
$2.09
+8.0% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing HSY against 170 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(9 bullish, 60 neutral, 101 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.83
This Stock
vs
37.45
Sector Avg
-28.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
31.01%
This Stock
vs
-13.91%
Sector Avg
-322.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
11.84%
This Stock
vs
-7.77%
Sector Avg
-252.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.26
This Stock
vs
1.89
Sector Avg
-33.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
6.5%
This Stock
vs
111.74%
Sector Avg
-94.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.36
This Stock
vs
2.29
Sector Avg
-40.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
|
NEUTRAL | $36.12B | 26.83 | 31.0% | 11.8% | $179.2 | |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
|
BEARISH | $36.06B | 17.35 | 8.4% | 12.5% | $26.54 | Compare |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $34.66B | 17.6 | 136.9% | 10.0% | $104.02 | Compare |
|
FMX
Fomento Económico...
|
BEARISH | $39.3B | 38.16 | 8.9% | 2.3% | $113.73 | Compare |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
|
NEUTRAL | $32.44B | 27.22 | 5.2% | 1.4% | $67.51 | Compare |
HSY
The Hershey Company
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$36.1B
P/E
26.8
ROE
31.0%
Price
$179.2
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL | Director | Sale | 303 | $50,971 |
| 2025-10-20 | VOSKUIL STEVEN E | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $281,280 |
| 2025-10-01 | KRAUS MARIA T. | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | QUINTERO - JOHNSON MARIE | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | MAHLAN DEIRDRE ANN | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | SINGLETON HAROLD III | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | BRANDT CHRISTOPHER W | Director | Stock Award | 359 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | HABEN MARY KAY | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | OZAN KEVIN M | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-09-18 | VOSKUIL STEVEN E | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $283,680 |
| 2025-09-15 | NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES | Director | Stock Award | 141 | $26,250 |
| 2025-09-15 | CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM | Director | Stock Award | 141 | $26,250 |
ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL
Director
2025-11-03
303 shares
·
$50,971
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
2025-10-20
1,500 shares
·
$281,280
KRAUS MARIA T.
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
QUINTERO - JOHNSON MARIE
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
MAHLAN DEIRDRE ANN
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
SINGLETON HAROLD III
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
BRANDT CHRISTOPHER W
Director
2025-10-01
359 shares
HABEN MARY KAY
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
OZAN KEVIN M
Director
2025-10-01
225 shares
VOSKUIL STEVEN E
Chief Financial Officer
2025-09-18
1,500 shares
·
$283,680
NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES
Director
2025-09-15
141 shares
·
$26,250
CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM
Director
2025-09-15
141 shares
·
$26,250
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
22 analysts
DA Davidson
2025-11-10
Neutral
Neutral
TD Cowen
2025-10-31
Hold
Hold
UBS
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
Stifel
2025-10-31
Hold
Hold
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-31
In-Line
In-Line
Piper Sandler
2025-10-31
Underweight
Neutral
Stifel
2025-10-24
Hold
Hold
JP Morgan
2025-10-20
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-10-08
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-09-25
Underweight
Underweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning HSY from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.