HSY The Hershey Company - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
HSY trades at a valuation premium to most peers except MNST, but lacks the double-digit revenue growth of MNST (16.8%) to justify such a multiple, making it appear relatively expensive in the sector.
- Forward P/E of 21.33 is more reasonable than current P/E of 26.83, suggesting market expects normalization
- Price/Sales of 3.14 is in line with premium consumer brands and below MNST's 7.2x (implied)
- Current P/E of 26.83 is above sector average of 22.53 and peer CL's 21.86, despite slower growth
- Price/Book of 7.96 is high for a low-growth confectioner, indicating rich intangible asset pricing
Despite strong revenue momentum, earnings are in freefall, and price action shows a choppy recovery—down 6.5% in the last month but up 13.9% over 6M—indicating investor skepticism about near-term profitability despite bullish macro positioning in consumer staples.
- Revenue growth of 6.5% YoY shows pricing power and volume resilience in inflationary environment
- Analyst target price of $188.55 implies 5.2% upside, suggesting modest confidence in recovery
- Earnings growth of -38.2% YoY raises concerns about cost structure and input cost exposure
- No Q/Q growth data available, but recent EPS decline suggests ongoing margin pressure
HSY has a proven track record of beating expectations and maintaining margin discipline over five years, but the last two quarters have shown material deterioration in earnings quality, coinciding with underperformance in share price despite a 5Y gain of +29.8%.
- Impressive earnings beat record: 21 out of 25 quarters beat estimates, with 13 exceeding by double digits
- Long-term profitability is stable: gross margin of 37.73% and operating margin of 13.54% reflect brand strength
- Recent misses in Q3 and Q4 2024 (e.g., -32.5% surprise in Aug 2024) break a long streak of consistency
- 3Y price return of -10.8% underperforms sector and broader market, reflecting multiple contraction
HSY’s leverage is conservative relative to peers like CL (6.80) and KMB (5.00), but weak liquidity metrics suggest potential strain in working capital management, especially in a rising interest rate or supply chain disruption scenario.
- Debt/Equity of 1.26 is well below sector average of 3.28, providing structural financial flexibility
- Operating in a defensive sector reduces revenue cyclicality and supports cash flow stability
- Quick ratio of 0.66 indicates limited liquid assets to cover short-term liabilities, raising operational risk
- Lack of cash/debt figures limits visibility into net leverage and refinancing risk
The dividend is a key investor attraction, offering yield above sector peers like TGT (2.8%) and KMB (4.1%), but its sustainability is increasingly tied to a rebound in earnings after a sharp drop in profitability.
- Dividend yield of 3.06% is attractive in the current rate environment and above peer average
- Long history of dividend increases reflects commitment to shareholder returns
- Payout ratio of 81.91% is high, particularly given recent earnings decline, increasing risk of a cut if trends continue
- No 5-year average yield data limits assessment of policy consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HSY and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
Primary
|
+29.8% | -10.8% | +3.5% | +13.9% | -6.5% | +5.0% |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Peer
|
-2.4% | -16.6% | -9.6% | -16.9% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Peer
|
-12.5% | -9.4% | -18.0% | -23.8% | -13.3% | +0.2% |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Peer
|
+46.2% | -13.3% | +38.5% | +24.1% | +16.8% | +3.6% |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
Peer
|
-26.6% | -35.0% | +68.5% | +27.6% | -10.4% | -9.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
|
NEUTRAL | $36.12B | 26.83 | 31.0% | 11.8% | $179.2 | |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
|
BEARISH | $37.24B | 23.63 | 6.3% | 9.8% | $27.41 | |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $34.66B | 17.6 | 136.9% | 10.0% | $104.02 | |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
|
NEUTRAL | $32.44B | 27.22 | 5.2% | 1.4% | $67.51 | |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $29.02B | 22.77 | 19.0% | 3.5% | $131.84 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL | Director | Sale | 303 | $50,971 |
| 2025-10-20 | VOSKUIL STEVEN E | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $281,280 |
| 2025-10-01 | KRAUS MARIA T. | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | ROBBIN-COKER CORDEL | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | QUINTERO - JOHNSON MARIE | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | MAHLAN DEIRDRE ANN | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | SINGLETON HAROLD III | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | BRANDT CHRISTOPHER W | Director | Stock Award | 359 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | HABEN MARY KAY | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | OZAN KEVIN M | Director | Stock Award | 225 | - |
| 2025-09-18 | VOSKUIL STEVEN E | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $283,680 |
| 2025-09-15 | NALEBUFF BARRY JAMES | Director | Stock Award | 141 | $26,250 |
| 2025-09-15 | CUROE TIMOTHY WILLIAM | Director | Stock Award | 141 | $26,250 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning HSY from our newsroom.