JCI
NEUTRAL
$118.72
Live
Johnson Controls International plc · NYSE
Target $129.11
(+8.8%)
$68.03
52W Range
$123.78
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$78.66B
P/E
44.97
ROE
11.4%
Profit margin
13.9%
Debt/Equity
0.86
Dividend yield
1.35%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
Johnson Controls International (JCI) trades at a premium valuation with strong recent earnings growth and solid profitability, but faces headwinds from stretched multiples, weakening near-term EPS momentum, and bearish insider activity. While the company has delivered consistent quarterly beats over the past six years—evidenced by a 20.0% Q/Q EPS growth and 3.64% average surprise over the last four quarters—its forward P/E of 28.33 and current P/E of 44.97 are well above the sector average of 31.50, raising concerns about near-term upside. The stock has significantly outperformed with a 1Y return of +41.2% and 5Y return of +189.6%, yet momentum has cooled recently (-2.9% over 1W). Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $129.11 target implying ~8.7% upside, but insider selling worth $4.04M over the last six months signals caution at current levels.
Key Strengths
Consistent earnings execution: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with a 3.64% average surprise; long-term track record of 22 beats in 25 quarters
Strong profitability: 13.95% net margin and 36.41% gross margin exceed sector averages of 12.61% and peer medians
Leverage to structural trends in building efficiency and smart infrastructure with global scale in HVAC and fire/security systems
Healthy dividend policy: 1.35% yield supported by a sustainable 57.41% payout ratio, below the 60% threshold for industrial peers
Lower leverage than sector: Debt/Equity of 0.86 vs sector average of 1.56, reducing refinancing and interest rate risk
Key Risks
Elevated valuation: P/E of 44.97 is 42.8% above sector average (31.50) and Forward P/E of 28.33 still implies premium pricing
Decelerating earnings momentum: YoY EPS growth is -1.6% despite strong Q/Q growth, suggesting cyclical peak risks
Weak liquidity profile: Current ratio of 0.93 and quick ratio of 0.66 indicate potential working capital pressure
Bearish insider sentiment: $4.04M in net officer sales over last 6 months with zero buys, suggesting lack of confidence at current price
Near-term price resistance: Trading near 52-week high ($123.78) with no 50D/200D data, increasing vulnerability to pullback
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.5
-6.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
66
Strong
52
65
78
64
70
AI Verdict
JCI presents a mixed profile—supported by robust historical execution and sector-leading margins, but constrained by premium valuation and cooling insider sentiment. While it outperforms many industrials on profitability and dividend sustainability, its current price reflects limited margin for error relative to peers like EMR and ITW, which trade at lower multiples despite similar growth.
Key drivers: Premium valuation relative to sector, Consistent earnings beat history, Insider selling pressure
Confidence
75%
Value
52/100
JCI trades at a significant valuation premium to the industrials sector, which averages a P/E of 31.50 and ROE of 33.79%, suggesting the market is pricing in above-trend growth despite only moderate revenue expansion.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 28.33 is more reasonable than current P/E of 44.97, suggesting some normalization expected
- Price/Sales of 3.33 is in line with high-margin industrial peers like ITW (3.1x) and EMR (3.0x)
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 44.97 is extremely elevated vs sector avg of 31.50 and peer NOC (20.08)
- Price/Book of 5.61 implies aggressive growth assumptions not fully supported by ROE of 11.37%
Future
65/100
While near-term earnings momentum is strong and price trends remain positive over 6M (+21.7%) and 1Y (+41.2%), the deceleration in annual EPS growth and modest revenue expansion suggest future gains may be multiple-dependent rather than fundamentals-driven.
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +20.0% indicates short-term operating leverage and cost discipline
- Analyst target of $129.11 implies 8.7% upside, supported by continued margin expansion in building solutions
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth of 3.10% YoY lags sector average of 6.25%, limiting top-line driven upside
- Negative YoY EPS growth (-1.6%) despite strong Q/Q rebound raises sustainability questions
Past
78/100
JCI has demonstrated exceptional earnings predictability and shareholder returns over the past five years, but its capital efficiency metrics lag the sector, suggesting structural limitations in asset turnover or margin scalability.
Positives
- Impressive earnings consistency: 22 out of 25 quarters beat or met estimates, including multiple double-digit surprises
- 5Y share price return of +189.6% significantly outperforms industrials and peers like WM and ITW
Watchpoints
- ROE of 11.37% is below sector average of 33.79%, indicating less efficient capital use than peers
- ROA of 4.12% reflects asset intensity and lower operating leverage compared to ITW (ROA ~10%)
Health
64/100
JCI maintains a conservative capital structure relative to peers like WM (2.45) and ITW (2.79), but weak liquidity ratios raise concerns about near-term operational resilience, especially in a downturn.
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.86 is well below sector average of 1.56, providing balance sheet flexibility
- Operating margins of 10.42% support debt servicing capacity despite moderate leverage
Watchpoints
- Current ratio of 0.93 and quick ratio of 0.66 indicate tight short-term liquidity, below the 1.0 safety threshold
- Lack of cash/debt figures limits visibility into true financial runway and refinancing risk
Dividend
70/100
The dividend is well-covered and aligns with capital allocation discipline, but lacks a demonstrated growth track record and trails higher-yielding peers, making it a secondary investment thesis driver.
Positives
- 1.35% dividend yield is modest but competitive within the industrials sector
- 57.41% payout ratio is sustainable and leaves room for buybacks or reinvestment
Watchpoints
- No data on 5-year yield average or dividend growth history limits visibility into policy consistency
- Yield remains below peer EMR (~2.5%) and WM (~2.0%), reducing income appeal
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$118.72
Analyst Target
$129.11
Upside/Downside
+8.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for JCI and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Primary
|
+189.6% | +89.8% | +41.2% | +21.7% | +7.1% | -2.9% |
|
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
Peer
|
+21.7% | +11.9% | +19.7% | +15.3% | +8.8% | +6.6% |
|
MMM
3M Company
Peer
|
+8.0% | +92.1% | +22.3% | -1.3% | +7.2% | -0.9% |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
Peer
|
+36.7% | +42.3% | +60.3% | +22.2% | +11.4% | +2.0% |
|
CTAS
Cintas Corporation
Peer
|
+112.1% | +72.4% | -13.1% | -15.1% | -0.1% | +1.1% |
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Primary
5Y
+189.6%
3Y
+89.8%
1Y
+41.2%
6M
+21.7%
1M
+7.1%
1W
-2.9%
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
Peer
5Y
+21.7%
3Y
+11.9%
1Y
+19.7%
6M
+15.3%
1M
+8.8%
1W
+6.6%
MMM
3M Company
Peer
5Y
+8.0%
3Y
+92.1%
1Y
+22.3%
6M
-1.3%
1M
+7.2%
1W
-0.9%
CSX
CSX Corporation
Peer
5Y
+36.7%
3Y
+42.3%
1Y
+60.3%
6M
+22.2%
1M
+11.4%
1W
+2.0%
CTA
Cintas Corporation
Peer
5Y
+112.1%
3Y
+72.4%
1Y
-13.1%
6M
-15.1%
1M
-0.1%
1W
+1.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
44.97
Forward P/E
28.33
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.61
P/S Ratio
3.33
EV/Revenue
3.53
EV/EBITDA
23.68
Market Cap
$78.66B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.95%
Operating Margin
10.42%
Gross Margin
36.41%
ROE
11.37%
ROA
4.12%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.1%
Earnings Growth
+181.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+167.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.86
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.93
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.66
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.62
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-11-05
$1.26
+4.7% surprise
2025-07-29
$1.05
+3.6% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.82
+2.6% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing JCI against 469 companies in the Industrials sector
(39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
44.97
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-54.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
11.37%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-158.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.95%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+109.6%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.86
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-67.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
3.1%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-95.7%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.93
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
-69.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
|
NEUTRAL | $78.66B | 44.97 | 11.4% | 13.9% | $118.72 | |
|
CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas...
|
NEUTRAL | $77.97B | 26.33 | 8.6% | 27.5% | $86.89 | Compare |
|
MMM
3M Company
|
BEARISH | $79.74B | 25.23 | 75.5% | 13.0% | $151.4 | Compare |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
|
BEARISH | $80.67B | 28.35 | 22.5% | 20.5% | $43.37 | Compare |
|
CTAS
Cintas Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $75.51B | 41.49 | 42.2% | 17.5% | $186.72 | Compare |
JCI
Johnson Controls...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$78.7B
P/E
45.0
ROE
11.4%
Price
$118.72
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | SCHLITZ LEI ZHANG | Officer | Sale | 10,500 | $1,281,315 |
| 2025-09-03 | MCCONEGHY DANIEL C | Officer | Sale | 5,917 | $625,604 |
| 2025-09-03 | MCCONEGHY DANIEL C | Officer | Option Exercise | 5,917 | $470,638 |
| 2025-09-02 | MANNING NATHAN D | Officer | Sale | 1,422 | $149,395 |
| 2025-08-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | Officer | Sale | 1,422 | $147,447 |
| 2025-07-14 | SCALIA CHRISTOPHER M | Officer | Stock Award | 23,526 | $2,499,873 |
| 2025-07-14 | SCALIA CHRISTOPHER M | Officer | Stock Award | 23,526 | $2,499,873 |
| 2025-07-01 | MANNING NATHAN D | Officer | Sale | 1,422 | $149,052 |
| 2025-06-06 | RATHNINDE ANURUDDHA | President | Sale | 15,000 | $1,546,950 |
| 2025-06-02 | MANNING NATHAN D | Officer | Sale | 1,422 | $143,480 |
| 2025-05-23 | OLIVER GEORGE R SR | Director | Gift | 360 | - |
SCHLITZ LEI ZHANG
Officer
2025-11-06
10,500 shares
·
$1,281,315
MCCONEGHY DANIEL C
Officer
2025-09-03
5,917 shares
·
$625,604
MCCONEGHY DANIEL C
Officer
2025-09-03
5,917 shares
·
$470,638
MANNING NATHAN D
Officer
2025-09-02
1,422 shares
·
$149,395
MANNING NATHAN D
Officer
2025-08-01
1,422 shares
·
$147,447
SCALIA CHRISTOPHER M
Officer
2025-07-14
23,526 shares
·
$2,499,873
SCALIA CHRISTOPHER M
Officer
2025-07-14
23,526 shares
·
$2,499,873
MANNING NATHAN D
Officer
2025-07-01
1,422 shares
·
$149,052
RATHNINDE ANURUDDHA
President
2025-06-06
15,000 shares
·
$1,546,950
MANNING NATHAN D
Officer
2025-06-02
1,422 shares
·
$143,480
OLIVER GEORGE R SR
Director
2025-05-23
360 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Goldman Sachs
2025-11-07
Buy
Buy
Argus Research
2025-11-07
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-11-06
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Wells Fargo
2025-11-06
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-11-06
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Mizuho
2025-11-06
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-10-15
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-10-09
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-08-21
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-07-30
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning JCI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.