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MTH

NEUTRAL
$67.02 Live
Meritage Homes Corporation · NYSE
Target $77.78 (+16.1%)
$58.03 52W Range $84.74

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$4.48B
P/E
12.23
ROE
7.5%
Profit margin
6.9%
Debt/Equity
0.37
Dividend yield
2.86%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
MTH presents a stark contrast between strong defensive valuation and deteriorating operational health. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health, corroborated by a severe collapse in earnings (-51.50% YoY) and revenue (-17.70% YoY). While the stock trades below book value (P/B 0.88) and below its Graham Number ($96.94), the growth-based intrinsic value of $38.36 suggests the market is pricing in a significant downturn. The combination of bearish insider activity and four consecutive earnings misses offsets the attractive valuation metrics.

Key Strengths

Trading below book value (P/B 0.88)
Low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.37
Extremely high liquidity (Current Ratio 14.97)
Sustainable dividend payout ratio of 32.30%
Low Forward P/E of 9.94 relative to sector averages

Key Risks

Severe earnings contraction (-51.50% YoY)
Negative revenue growth trends both YoY and Q/Q
Weak operational efficiency as indicated by Piotroski F-Score (3/9)
Consistent failure to meet analyst earnings estimates (0/4 beats)
Strong bearish insider sentiment with CEO and CFO selling
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$58.5
-12.7% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
50
Moderate
Value
85
Future
20
Past
50
Health
30
Dividend
65
AI Verdict
Value Trap Risk
Key drivers: Negative growth, Low P/B ratio, Weak Piotroski score, Insider selling
Confidence
90%
Value
85/100

Ref P/E 12.23, PEG 0.54, Graham Number $96.94

Positives
  • P/B < 1.0
  • P/E significantly lower than sector average
  • Price below Graham Number
Watchpoints
  • Price significantly above growth-based intrinsic value
Future
20/100

Ref Growth rates and Earnings Track Record

Positives
  • Analyst target price of $77.78 suggests recovery potential
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth -17.70%
  • Earnings growth -51.50%
  • Negative earnings surprises
Past
50/100

Ref Historical trends and 25-quarter track record

Positives
  • Positive 5Y change (+33.5%)
  • Long history of earnings beats prior to 2025
Watchpoints
  • Recent sharp decline in quarterly performance
Health
30/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Low Debt/Equity
  • High Current Ratio
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9 (Weak)
Dividend
65/100

Ref Yield and Payout

Positives
  • Low payout ratio (32.30%)
  • Consistent yield of 2.86%
Watchpoints
  • Dividend strength score 50/100

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$67.02
Analyst Target
$77.78
Upside/Downside
+16.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MTH and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-29
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
Primary
5Y
+33.5%
3Y
+12.6%
1Y
+2.7%
6M
+1.3%
1M
+11.6%
1W
-2.5%
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-31.9%
3Y
-17.8%
1Y
-5.9%
6M
-23.1%
1M
+4.5%
1W
-0.6%
MNS
MINISO Group Holding Limited
Peer
5Y
-38.6%
3Y
-10.4%
1Y
-15.5%
6M
-30.8%
1M
-3.1%
1W
-3.0%
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Peer
5Y
+294.4%
3Y
+242.8%
1Y
-22.4%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-24.0%
1W
-7.5%
BBW
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-30.8%
3Y
-47.1%
1Y
-38.5%
6M
-28.3%
1M
+12.6%
1W
-4.6%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
12.23
Forward P/E
9.94
PEG Ratio
0.54
P/B Ratio
0.88
P/S Ratio
0.8
EV/Revenue
1.0
EV/EBITDA
11.19
Market Cap
$4.48B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.86%
Operating Margin 5.84%
Gross Margin 19.08%
ROE 7.49%
ROA 3.9%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -17.7%
Earnings Growth -51.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -17.65%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -55.0%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.37
Low debt
Current Ratio
14.97
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.15
Excellent
Cash/Share
$11.49

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$1.1B
Gross Margin
17.5%
Op. Margin
5.9%
Net Margin
4.9%
Total Assets
$7.6B
Liabilities
$2.5B
Equity
$5.1B
Debt/Equity
0.48x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
96%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-07-22
$N/A
2026-04-22
$0.86
-11.9% surprise
2026-01-28
$1.2
-21.2% surprise
2025-10-28
$1.39
-14.6% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing MTH against 432 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (26 bullish, 157 neutral, 249 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.23
This Stock
vs
32.3
Sector Avg
-62.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.49%
This Stock
vs
-49.64%
Sector Avg
-115.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
6.86%
This Stock
vs
-5.61%
Sector Avg
-222.2% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.37
This Stock
vs
1.61
Sector Avg
-76.8% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-17.7%
This Stock
vs
26.41%
Sector Avg
-167.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
14.97
This Stock
vs
2.5
Sector Avg
+497.8% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

HILTON STEVEN J
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2026-03-23
8,151 shares
SFERRUZZA HILLA
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-23
14,672 shares
LORD PHILLIPPE
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-23
48,907 shares
FELICIANO JAVIER
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-23
7,346 shares
CLINTON MALISSIA
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-03-23
7,760 shares
WOFFINDEN AUSTIN M
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-23
7,845 shares
SASSER ALISON
Officer
Sell
2026-02-24
151 shares · $11,597
WOFFINDEN AUSTIN M
Officer
Sell
2026-02-24
143 shares · $10,982
HILTON STEVEN J
Officer and Director
Sell
2026-02-23
4,835 shares · $368,107
SFERRUZZA HILLA
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
2026-02-23
10,928 shares · $834,329
LORD PHILLIPPE
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-02-23
32,820 shares · $2,510,538
FELICIANO JAVIER
Officer
Sell
2026-02-23
3,580 shares · $272,931
CLINTON MALISSIA
General Counsel
Sell
2026-02-23
5,185 shares · $394,617
HILTON STEVEN J
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
5,925 shares
SFERRUZZA HILLA
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-20
14,080 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-Q
10-Q
2026-04-24

MTH reported a 17.5% year-over-year decrease in home closing revenue to $1.11 billion, driven by a 13.1% drop in homes closed and a 5% decline in average sales prices. Total home orders also fell 10.1% to $1.40 billion, with the West region experiencing the most significant decline in both closings and orders. Financial risks include volatility and comparability challenges resulting from the shifting mix of community price points and home specifications.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-22

Meritage Homes Corporation likely announced its first quarter 2026 financial results.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-07

MTH filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on April 7, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters at the upcoming annual meeting.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-26
8-K
8-K
2026-02-19

Meritage Homes Corporation filed an 8-K to announce its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results.

10-K
10-K
2026-02-13

MTH filed its 10-K on February 13, 2026, providing comprehensive disclosures on its business operations, financial condition, and risk factors. Detailed financial highlights are contained within the Management’s Discussion and Analysis, while specific operational and market risks are outlined in the Risk Factors section.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-28

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) filed an 8-K on January 28, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-10-31

MTH's home closing revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, declined 11.8% year-over-year to $1.399 billion, driven by a 6.5% decrease in homes closed and a 5.6% drop in average sales price. Regional performance was mixed, with a significant 29.2% revenue decline in the West Region partially offset by a 5.7% increase in the East Region. A primary operational risk is the lack of meaningful comparability between periods due to the constantly changing mix of community price points and home specifications.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-28

Meritage Homes Corporation announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-07-25

MTH reported total home closing revenue of $1.616 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, a 4.6% year-over-year decrease driven by a 5.8% decline in average sales price despite a slight increase in homes closed. Growth in the East region (8.0%) was offset by revenue declines in the West and Central regions. Key risks include a lack of meaningful comparability between reporting periods due to the shifting mix of communities and varying home price points.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-23
8-K
8-K
2025-07-09
8-K
8-K
2025-05-22
8-K
8-K
2025-05-13
10-Q
10-Q
2025-04-25
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-28
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
UBS
2026-04-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
B of A Securities
2026-04-20
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Truist Securities
2026-04-16
Maintains
Buy Buy
Evercore ISI Group
2026-04-13
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Truist Securities
2026-03-04
init
Buy
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-03
Maintains
Market Perform Market Perform
UBS
2026-01-23
Maintains
Buy Buy
B of A Securities
2026-01-16
down
Buy Neutral
Citizens
2026-01-07
init
Market Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning MTH from our newsroom.

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