MAT
NEUTRAL
$14.53
Live
Mattel, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $19.14
(+31.7%)
$14.1
52W Range
$22.48
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 14, 2026
Market cap
$4.52B
P/E
11.72
ROE
17.7%
Profit margin
7.4%
Debt/Equity
1.2
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
Mattel exhibits a strong deterministic health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating robust operational efficiency and financial stability. However, this fundamental strength is offset by a severe bearish technical trend (0/100) and concerning earnings decay, with YoY earnings growth at -18.50%. While the stock is priced near its Graham Number ($14.38), suggesting fair value from a defensive standpoint, the divergence between revenue growth (+7.30%) and earnings contraction suggests significant margin pressure. The outlook remains neutral as the low valuation provides a floor, but the lack of earnings momentum prevents a bullish rating.
Key Strengths
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9) indicating high financial health
Attractive valuation with a P/E of 11.72, significantly below the sector average of 36.52
Robust liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 2.15 and Quick Ratio of 1.60
Strong Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.68% compared to a negative sector average
Positive top-line revenue growth (7.30% YoY) showing market demand
Key Risks
Significant earnings contraction (-18.50% YoY and -24.60% Q/Q)
Strongly bearish technical trend with a 0/100 score and negative 6-month price action
Margin compression evidenced by the gap between revenue growth and earnings decline
Poor recent earnings track record, beating only 1 of the last 4 estimates
Lack of shareholder returns via dividends (0/100 strength)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$12.5
-14.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
49
Moderate
85
30
40
90
0
AI Verdict
Value Trap Risk
Key drivers: Strong balance sheet, Low P/E ratio, Negative earnings growth, Bearish price momentum
Confidence
80%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E 11.72 is very low for Consumer Cyclical
- Price/Sales 0.84 suggests undervaluation
- Current price is aligned with Graham Number ($14.38)
Watchpoints
- Intrinsic value based on growth is much lower ($8.68)
Future
30/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Steady revenue growth
Watchpoints
- Negative earnings growth
- Recent earnings surprises are predominantly negative
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical ability to beat estimates in older quarters
Watchpoints
- 5-year change of -28.9%
- Consistent downward trend over 1 month and 6 months
Health
90/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9
- Current Ratio > 2.0
- ROE significantly outperforms sector
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 1.20 is moderate
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield
- No payout history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$14.53
Analyst Target
$19.14
Upside/Downside
+31.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MAT and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
Primary
|
-28.9% | -18.0% | -4.7% | -16.0% | -9.5% | +0.1% |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Peer
|
+294.4% | +242.8% | -22.4% | +4.3% | -24.0% | -7.5% |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Peer
|
-30.8% | -47.1% | -38.5% | -28.3% | +12.6% | -4.6% |
|
BGSI
Boyd Group Services Inc.
Peer
|
+2.4% | +2.4% | +2.4% | +2.4% | -4.4% | -0.3% |
|
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
Peer
|
+163.3% | +163.3% | +30.8% | +47.0% | +5.9% | -0.2% |
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-28.9%
3Y
-18.0%
1Y
-4.7%
6M
-16.0%
1M
-9.5%
1W
+0.1%
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Peer
5Y
+294.4%
3Y
+242.8%
1Y
-22.4%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-24.0%
1W
-7.5%
BBW
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-30.8%
3Y
-47.1%
1Y
-38.5%
6M
-28.3%
1M
+12.6%
1W
-4.6%
BGS
Boyd Group Services Inc.
Peer
5Y
+2.4%
3Y
+2.4%
1Y
+2.4%
6M
+2.4%
1M
-4.4%
1W
-0.3%
ATM
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
Peer
5Y
+163.3%
3Y
+163.3%
1Y
+30.8%
6M
+47.0%
1M
+5.9%
1W
-0.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
11.72
Forward P/E
9.46
PEG Ratio
1.44
P/B Ratio
1.96
P/S Ratio
0.84
EV/Revenue
1.09
EV/EBITDA
7.72
Market Cap
$4.52B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.43%
Operating Margin
7.86%
Gross Margin
48.87%
ROE
17.68%
ROA
5.56%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+7.3%
Earnings Growth
-18.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+7.29%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-24.6%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.2
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.15
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.6
Excellent
Cash/Share
$4.11
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$1.8B
Gross Margin
45.9%
Op. Margin
8.0%
Net Margin
6.0%
Total Assets
$6.6B
Liabilities
$4.4B
Equity
$2.2B
Debt/Equity
1.97x
Operating CF
$0.8B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.7B
FCF Yield
93%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-10
$0.39
-28.8% surprise
2025-10-21
$0.89
-15.9% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.19
+21.1% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing MAT against 205 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(12 bullish, 78 neutral, 115 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.72
This Stock
vs
36.28
Sector Avg
-67.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
17.68%
This Stock
vs
-8.76%
Sector Avg
-301.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.43%
This Stock
vs
-4.71%
Sector Avg
-257.8%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.2
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
-12.1%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
7.3%
This Stock
vs
4.71%
Sector Avg
+55.0%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
2.15
This Stock
vs
2.41
Sector Avg
-10.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.52B | 11.72 | 17.7% | 7.4% | $14.53 | |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.53B | 9.38 | 40.9% | 10.1% | $96.3 | Compare |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.58B | 6.87 | -% | 9.5% | $22.2 | Compare |
|
BGSI
Boyd Group Services Inc.
|
BEARISH | $4.59B | 218.41 | 1.9% | 0.5% | $161.62 | Compare |
|
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.65B | 24.06 | 71.5% | 11.6% | $56.55 | Compare |
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$4.5B
P/E
11.7
ROE
17.7%
Price
$14.53
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | HERTZ NOREENA | Director | Stock Award | 2,208 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | KREIZ YNON | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 65,000 | $1,009,300 |
| 2026-02-09 | ANSCHELL JONATHAN HOWARD | Officer | Stock Award | 42,753 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | TOTZKE STEVEN B | President | Stock Award | 65,773 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | KREIZ YNON | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 511,798 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | HUGH YOON J | Officer | Stock Award | 6,976 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | ISAIAS ZANATTA ROBERTO JACOBO | Officer | Stock Award | 46,042 | - |
HERTZ NOREENA
Director
2026-03-27
2,208 shares
KREIZ YNON
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-12
65,000 shares
·
$1,009,300
ANSCHELL JONATHAN HOWARD
Officer
2026-02-09
42,753 shares
TOTZKE STEVEN B
President
2026-02-09
65,773 shares
KREIZ YNON
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-09
511,798 shares
HUGH YOON J
Officer
2026-02-09
6,976 shares
ISAIAS ZANATTA ROBERTO JACOBO
Officer
2026-02-09
46,042 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
14 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-03-11
Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2026-02-18
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2026-02-12
Buy
Neutral
Goldman Sachs
2026-02-12
Neutral
Neutral
Jefferies
2026-02-11
Buy
Buy
DA Davidson
2026-02-11
Buy
Buy
Roth Capital
2026-02-04
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2026-02-02
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Goldman Sachs
2026-01-09
Buy
Neutral
UBS
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MAT from our newsroom.
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