NCDL

BEARISH

$14.63 Live

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. · NYSE

Target $15.12 (+3.4%)

$12.43 52W Range $17.27

NCDL Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH

Console Chart News

NCDL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Financial Services • Asset Management

Current Price Live

$14.63

Analyst Target

$15.12

+3.4% Upside

52W High

$17.27

52W Low

$12.43

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026

Market cap

$722.53M

P/E

11.25

ROE

N/A

Profit margin

N/A

Debt/Equity

N/A

Dividend yield

10.94%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

85%

NCDL exhibits severe fundamental deterioration, highlighted by a critical Piotroski F-Score of 0/9, indicating weakness across all health dimensions. The company is currently trading at $14.63, a significant premium to its growth-based intrinsic value of $9.10. Most concerning is the unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 138.46%, suggesting the company is returning more capital than it earns. Despite a 'Buy' analyst consensus, the combination of negative YoY EPS growth (-20%) and a bearish technical trend suggests a high-risk profile.

Key Strengths

High current dividend yield of 10.94%

Low forward P/E ratio of 9.05

Recent short-term price momentum (1M +15%)

Positive analyst target price ($15.12) slightly above current market price

Stable market capitalization of $0.72B

Key Risks

Critical financial health (Piotroski F-Score 0/9)

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (138.46%)

Significant negative YoY EPS growth (-20%)

Sharp decline in Q/Q revenue growth (-32.34%)

Trading at a ~60% premium to intrinsic value ($9.10)

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$9.1

-37.8% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Weak

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

High Risk / Value Trap

Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 0/9, Payout ratio > 100%, Negative earnings growth, Price > Intrinsic Value

Confidence

90%

Value

30/100

Ref P/E 11.25 and Intrinsic Value $9.1

Positives

Low P/E ratio

Watchpoints

Current price $14.63 vs Intrinsic Value $9.10

Future

20/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives

Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +2.3%

Watchpoints

YoY EPS growth -20%
Q/Q Revenue growth -32.34%

Past

30/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives

Positive 5Y change (+8.2%)

Watchpoints

Consistent earnings misses in 3 of the last 4 quarters

Health

10/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives

No standout positives identified.

Watchpoints

Piotroski F-Score 0/9

Dividend

35/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives

High yield (10.94%)

Watchpoints

Payout ratio 138.46% indicates capital erosion

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$14.63

Analyst Target

$15.12

Upside/Downside

+3.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NCDL and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
NCDL Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Primary	+8.2%	+8.2%	+5.4%	+8.4%	+15.0%	+4.6%
NIE Virtus Equity & Convertible Income Fund Peer	+60.9%	+73.0%	+31.6%	+7.1%	+11.2%	+1.8%
ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation Peer	+56.2%	+84.3%	+9.7%	-33.5%	-13.0%	-12.5%
MYI BlackRock MuniYield Quality Fund III, Inc. Peer	-2.0%	+15.8%	+9.2%	+0.9%	+4.1%	-1.9%
ASGI Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund Peer	+81.9%	+71.2%	+44.0%	+13.2%	+0.7%	+4.0%

NCD

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.

Primary

+8.2%

+5.4%

+8.4%

+15.0%

+4.6%

NIE

Virtus Equity & Convertible Income Fund

Peer

+60.9%

+73.0%

+31.6%

+7.1%

+11.2%

+1.8%

ATL

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation

Peer

+56.2%

+84.3%

+9.7%

-33.5%

-13.0%

-12.5%

MYI

BlackRock MuniYield Quality Fund III, Inc.

Peer

-2.0%

+15.8%

+9.2%

+0.9%

+4.1%

-1.9%

ASG

Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund

Peer

+81.9%

+71.2%

+44.0%

+13.2%

+0.7%

+4.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

11.25

9.05

N/A

$722.53M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin N/A

Operating Margin N/A

Gross Margin N/A

ROE N/A

ROA N/A

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth N/A

Earnings Growth N/A

Q/Q Revenue Growth -32.34%

Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

N/A

Current Ratio

N/A

Quick Ratio

N/A

Cash/Share

$N/A

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue

$0.0B

Net Margin

81.0%

Total Assets

$2.1B

Liabilities

$1.2B

Equity

$0.9B

Debt/Equity

1.35x

Operating CF

$0.0B

Free Cash Flow

$0.0B

FCF Yield

100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-26

$0.44

+3.3% surprise

2025-11-04

$0.43

-4.5% surprise

2025-08-06

$0.46

-0.5% surprise

2025-05-08

$0.53

-5.8% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing NCDL against 956 companies in the Financial Services sector (153 bullish, 417 neutral, 386 bearish)

P/E Ratio

11.25

This Stock

35.14

Sector Avg

-68.0% (Discount)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
NCDL Nuveen Churchill Direct...	BEARISH	$722.53M	11.25	-%	-%	$14.63
NIE Virtus Equity &...	NEUTRAL	$719.88M	6.29	-%	-%	$25.98	Compare
ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation	NEUTRAL	$726.19M	8.52	19.7%	21.9%	$47.96	Compare
MYI BlackRock MuniYield...	NEUTRAL	$715.19M	28.32	3.1%	40.3%	$10.76	Compare
ASGI Abrdn Global...	BEARISH	$714.98M	8.13	-%	-%	$22.61	Compare

NCDL Nuveen Churchill...

BEARISH

Mkt Cap

$723M

P/E

11.3

ROE

Price

$14.63

Compare with NCDL

Compare with NCDL

Compare with NCDL

Compare with NCDL

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date	Insider	Position	Transaction	Shares	Value
2026-03-12	VICHNESS SHAUL	Chief Financial Officer	Purchase	5,000	$65,650
2026-03-10	RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPH	Director	Purchase	17,857	$244,819
2026-03-06	LINETT MAT	Managing Director	Purchase	2,000	$26,099
2026-03-05	MCCALLY JOHN	Officer	Purchase	2,000	$26,595
2026-03-04	STRIFE JASON	Divisional Officer	Purchase	7,690	$103,046
2026-03-03	KENCEL KENNETH J	Chief Executive Officer	Purchase	10,000	$130,384
2026-03-03	MIRANDA KENNETH M.	Director	Purchase	3,000	$38,490
2025-11-19	MIRANDA KENNETH M.	Director	Purchase	2,000	$28,200
2025-11-17	VICHNESS SHAUL	Chief Financial Officer	Purchase	5,000	$71,000
2025-11-06	KENCEL KENNETH J	Chief Executive Officer	Purchase	20,000	$284,400

VICHNESS SHAUL

Chief Financial Officer

Buy

2026-03-12

5,000 shares · $65,650

RITCHIE JAMES JOSEPH

Director

Buy

2026-03-10

17,857 shares · $244,819

LINETT MAT

Managing Director

Buy

2026-03-06

2,000 shares · $26,099

MCCALLY JOHN

Officer

Buy

2026-03-05

2,000 shares · $26,595

STRIFE JASON

Divisional Officer

Buy

2026-03-04

7,690 shares · $103,046

KENCEL KENNETH J

Chief Executive Officer

Buy

2026-03-03

10,000 shares · $130,384

MIRANDA KENNETH M.

Director

Buy

2026-03-03

3,000 shares · $38,490

MIRANDA KENNETH M.

Director

Buy

2025-11-19

2,000 shares · $28,200

VICHNESS SHAUL

Chief Financial Officer

Buy

2025-11-17

5,000 shares · $71,000

KENCEL KENNETH J

Chief Executive Officer

Buy

2025-11-06

20,000 shares · $284,400

Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A

2026-04-07

NCDL filed a Definitive Proxy Statement on April 7, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on matters at the company's upcoming meeting.

8-K

2026-03-20

8-K

2026-02-26

NCDL filed an 8-K on February 26, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-K

2026-02-26

NCDL filed its annual 10-K on February 26, 2026, which includes detailed sections on business operations, risk factors, and management's discussion and analysis. Specific financial highlights and risk details were not provided in the available excerpts.

8-K

2026-02-03

NCDL filed an 8-K on February 3, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results or quarterly earnings.

8-K

2025-11-04

NCDL filed an 8-K on November 4, 2025, likely to report its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q

2025-11-04

NCDL filed its 10-Q on November 4, 2025. The provided excerpt contains no specific financial highlights but references the inclusion of risk factors under Item 1A.

8-K

2025-08-06

NCDL filed a current report on August 6, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

10-Q

2025-08-06

8-K

2025-06-04

8-K

2025-05-08

10-Q

2025-05-08

DEF 14A

2025-04-11

8-K

2025-03-28

8-K

2025-03-26

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

BUY

6 analysts

UBS

2026-04-20

Maintains

Neutral Neutral

Truist Securities

2026-03-04

Maintains

Buy Buy

Wells Fargo

2026-03-04

Maintains

Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

2026-02-27

Maintains

Market Perform Market Perform

Wells Fargo

2025-11-05

Maintains

Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

2025-11-05

Maintains

Market Perform Market Perform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning NCDL from our newsroom.

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NCDL

NCDL Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Recent Insider Trading

SEC Filings

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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