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NCLH

BEARISH
$18.18 Live
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · NYSE
Target $24.61 (+35.4%)
$16.68 52W Range $27.18

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$8.28B
P/E
19.76
ROE
23.3%
Profit margin
4.3%
Debt/Equity
7.03
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
NCLH presents a high-risk profile characterized by a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a severe liquidity crisis. While analysts maintain a 'buy' rating based on a low forward P/E of 7.36 and a PEG of 0.43, the current price of $18.18 trades at a significant premium to both the Graham Number ($10.02) and the Intrinsic Value ($6.44). The company's balance sheet is critically leveraged with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.03 and a Current Ratio of 0.21, indicating extreme difficulty in meeting short-term obligations.

Key Strengths

Low Forward P/E (7.36) suggesting potential valuation recovery
Attractive PEG Ratio (0.43) indicating growth is undervalued
Positive year-over-year revenue growth of 6.40%
Strong analyst consensus with a target price of $24.61
High ROE (23.29%), though likely amplified by high leverage

Key Risks

Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.03
Critical liquidity risk evidenced by a Current Ratio of 0.21 and Quick Ratio of 0.09
Severe Q/Q earnings collapse (-94.40%)
Current price is 81% above the Graham Number defensive value
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative 6-month price momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$10.02
-44.9% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
27
Weak
Value
40
Future
50
Past
30
Health
15
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High Risk / Speculative
Key drivers: Critical liquidity shortage, Extreme debt load, Price-to-Intrinsic Value gap, Earnings volatility
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100

Trades at a premium to deterministic value models despite low multiples.

Positives
  • Low Forward P/E
  • Low PEG ratio
Watchpoints
  • Price ($18.18) >> Graham Number ($10.02)
  • Price ($18.18) >> Intrinsic Value ($6.44)
Future
50/100

Growth is present in revenue but not translating to stable bottom-line earnings.

Positives
  • Steady revenue growth
  • Bullish analyst targets
Watchpoints
  • Recent Q/Q earnings crash
  • Cyclical industry sensitivity
Past
30/100

Long-term destruction of shareholder value.

Positives
  • Recovery from 2021-2022 lows
Watchpoints
  • 5-year return of -41.7%
  • Consistent history of earnings misses
Health
15/100

Balance sheet is in a state of distress; liquidity is insufficient for operational safety.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity of 7.03
  • Current Ratio of 0.21
  • Quick Ratio of 0.09
Dividend
0/100

Company is focused on debt survival over shareholder distributions.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend payments
  • 0/100 dividend strength

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$18.18
Analyst Target
$24.61
Upside/Downside
+35.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NCLH and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30
NCL
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Primary
5Y
-41.7%
3Y
+25.0%
1Y
+13.4%
6M
-18.2%
1M
-2.8%
1W
-1.3%
IBP
Installed Building Products, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+146.5%
3Y
+151.4%
1Y
+80.2%
6M
+11.0%
1M
+13.8%
1W
-3.5%
LEV
Levi Strauss & Co.
Peer
5Y
-12.4%
3Y
+69.4%
1Y
+44.1%
6M
+6.2%
1M
+23.5%
1W
-4.0%
LKQ
LKQ Corporation
Peer
5Y
-26.2%
3Y
-42.4%
1Y
-15.5%
6M
+4.1%
1M
+6.1%
1W
-2.3%
AN
AutoNation, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+183.9%
3Y
+87.3%
1Y
+15.7%
6M
+5.4%
1M
+0.9%
1W
-0.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
19.76
Forward P/E
7.36
PEG Ratio
0.43
P/B Ratio
3.75
P/S Ratio
0.84
EV/Revenue
2.4
EV/EBITDA
9.27
Market Cap
$8.28B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 4.31%
Operating Margin 8.31%
Gross Margin 42.62%
ROE 23.29%
ROA 4.59%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +6.4%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +6.4%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -94.4%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
7.03
High debt
Current Ratio
0.21
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.09
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.46

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$2.2B
Gross Margin
41.0%
Op. Margin
8.3%
Net Margin
0.6%
Total Assets
$22.5B
Liabilities
$20.3B
Equity
$2.2B
Debt/Equity
9.20x
Operating CF
$0.5B
CapEx
$-0.4B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
5%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-04
$N/A
2026-03-02
$0.03
-85.6% surprise
2025-11-04
$1.2
+3.3% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.51
-1.1% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing NCLH against 436 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (26 bullish, 157 neutral, 253 bearish)
P/E Ratio
19.76
This Stock
vs
31.77
Sector Avg
-37.8% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
23.29%
This Stock
vs
-49.6%
Sector Avg
-146.9% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
4.31%
This Stock
vs
-5.74%
Sector Avg
-175.1% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
7.03
This Stock
vs
1.61
Sector Avg
+335.5% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
6.4%
This Stock
vs
26.16%
Sector Avg
-75.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.21
This Stock
vs
2.5
Sector Avg
-91.6% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

CRUZ ALEX
Director
Stock Award
2026-04-13
8,912 shares
LANSBERRY KEVIN ALLEN
Director
Stock Award
2026-04-13
8,912 shares
PAGLIUCA STEPHEN G
Director
Stock Award
2026-04-13
8,912 shares
COHEN JONATHAN Z
Director
Stock Award
2026-04-13
8,912 shares
MACDONALD BRIAN P
Director
Stock Award
2026-04-13
8,912 shares
CHIDSEY JOHN W
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-26
967,254 shares
MONTAGUE JASON M
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-06
54,862 shares · $1,099,983
ASHBY FAYE L
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-06
29,925 shares · $599,996
KEMPA MARK A.
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-06
47,880 shares · $959,994
DAHLGREN PATRIK
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-06
54,862 shares · $1,099,983
KAZLAUSKAS MARC
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-06
54,862 shares · $1,099,983
FARKAS DANIELS S.
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-03-06
44,887 shares · $899,984
KEMPA MARK A.
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-24
132,100 shares
DAHLGREN PATRIK
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-24
90,252 shares
FARKAS DANIELS S.
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-02-24
132,100 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-30

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) filed a definitive proxy statement on April 30, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the company's annual meeting.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-27

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. filed a current report on March 27, 2026, likely announcing its first-quarter financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-27

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. filed a current report on March 27, 2026, likely announcing its first-quarter financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-16
10-K
10-K
2026-03-02

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) filed its 10-K annual report on March 2, 2026, detailing its business operations and financial condition. The filing includes comprehensive disclosures regarding management's analysis of financial results and a dedicated section outlining the company's risk factors.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-02

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. likely filed this 8-K to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-12

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. likely reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-04

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) filed its quarterly 10-Q report on November 4, 2025. The provided excerpt directs investors to the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for a comprehensive discussion of risk factors. No specific financial highlights were included in the provided text.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-11-04

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-09-18
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-09-11
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-09-08
8-K
8-K
2025-08-20
10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-04
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-07-31
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
22 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-27
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Stifel
2026-04-20
Maintains
Buy Buy
Tigress Financial
2026-04-17
Maintains
Strong Buy Strong Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-04-15
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
UBS
2026-04-13
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2026-04-10
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-09
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Truist Securities
2026-03-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
Stifel
2026-03-19
Maintains
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2026-03-04
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning NCLH from our newsroom.

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