ORC

BEARISH

$7.03 Live

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. · NYSE

Target $7.5 (+6.7%)

$6.62 52W Range $8.4

ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH

Console Chart News

ORC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Real Estate • REIT - Mortgage

Current Price Live

$7.03

Analyst Target

$7.5

+6.7% Upside

52W High

$8.4

52W Low

$6.62

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026

Market cap

$1.41B

P/E

7.4

ROE

10.9%

Profit margin

83.8%

Debt/Equity

7.81

Dividend yield

17.07%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

85%

ORC presents a classic 'yield trap' profile, characterized by a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a missing Altman Z-Score that obscures potential distress. While the Graham Number ($12.69) suggests a defensive value, this is offset by a crashing intrinsic value ($6.65) and a catastrophic payout ratio of 151.58%. The company is severely over-leveraged with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.81 and a critical liquidity shortage (Current Ratio 0.11). Combined with a 0/100 technical trend and collapsing YoY earnings growth (-168.8%), the risk of a dividend cut or capital impairment is high.

Key Strengths

Trading below book value (P/B 0.93)

Low P/E ratio (7.40) relative to broader real estate sector

High nominal dividend yield (17.07%) for income-focused speculators

Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates the company is not yet in a 'weak' health category

Positive 1-year price performance (+19.8%) despite fundamental decay

Key Risks

Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.81

Severe liquidity risk indicated by a Current Ratio of 0.11

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 151.58%

Collapsing profitability with YoY EPS growth of -168.8%

Bearish technical trend (0/100) suggesting strong downward momentum

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$6.65

-5.4% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Weak

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

High-Risk Yield Trap

Key drivers: Unsustainable Payout Ratio, Extreme Debt Leverage, Earnings Collapse, Liquidity Crisis

Confidence

90%

Value

55/100

Graham Number $12.69 suggests value, but mREITs often trade at discounts to book due to leverage risks.

Positives

P/B < 1.0
Low Forward P/E (5.11)

Watchpoints

Current price exceeds growth-based intrinsic value

Future

10/100

Earnings trajectory is sharply negative, making future growth unlikely without a structural pivot.

Positives

No standout positives identified.

Watchpoints

Q/Q Revenue Growth -158.83%
YoY EPS Growth -168.8%

Past

40/100

Long-term value destruction despite short-term price recovery.

Positives

1Y return +19.8%

Watchpoints

5Y return -37.5%
Consistent earnings misses over last 25 quarters

Health

20/100

Financial health is critical; the company is heavily reliant on debt and lacks short-term liquidity.

Positives

Piotroski F-Score 4 (Stable)

Watchpoints

Debt/Equity 7.81
Current Ratio 0.11

Dividend

15/100

Dividend strength score 40/100; high probability of a dividend cut.

Positives

Very high yield (17.07%)

Watchpoints

Payout ratio 151.58% indicates dividend is paid from capital or debt, not earnings

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$7.03

Analyst Target

$7.5

Upside/Downside

+6.7%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ORC and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Primary	-37.5%	+23.3%	+19.8%	+7.6%	+1.4%	+4.3%
AAT American Assets Trust, Inc. Peer	-18.7%	-20.1%	-20.4%	-8.6%	-4.6%	0.0%
FOR Forestar Group Inc. Peer	+10.5%	+54.9%	+41.9%	+7.1%	+11.1%	+5.6%
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Peer	+49.1%	+20.2%	+23.8%	+5.8%	+2.0%	-2.3%
CBL CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. Peer	+107.0%	+138.5%	+97.4%	+54.3%	+19.0%	+1.1%

ORC

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Primary

-37.5%

+23.3%

+19.8%

+7.6%

+1.4%

+4.3%

AAT

American Assets Trust, Inc.

Peer

-18.7%

-20.1%

-20.4%

-8.6%

-4.6%

0.0%

FOR

Forestar Group Inc.

Peer

+10.5%

+54.9%

+41.9%

+7.1%

+11.1%

+5.6%

ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Peer

+49.1%

+20.2%

+23.8%

+5.8%

+2.0%

-2.3%

CBL

CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.

Peer

+107.0%

+138.5%

+97.4%

+54.3%

+19.0%

+1.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

7.4

5.11

N/A

0.93

9.69

77.2

N/A

$1.41B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 83.76%

Operating Margin 158.9%

Gross Margin 96.97%

ROE 10.85%

ROA 1.22%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth N/A

Earnings Growth N/A

Q/Q Revenue Growth -158.83%

Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

7.81

High debt

Current Ratio

0.11

Weak

Quick Ratio

0.1

Poor

Cash/Share

$5.16

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue

$-0.0B

Net Margin

158.9%

Total Assets

$12.7B

Liabilities

$11.3B

Equity

$1.4B

Debt/Equity

8.10x

Operating CF

$0.0B

Free Cash Flow

$0.0B

FCF Yield

100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-07-23

$N/A

2026-04-23

$-0.11

-133.0% surprise

2026-01-29

$0.2

+6.3% surprise

2025-10-23

$0.16

+12.5% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing ORC against 214 companies in the Real Estate sector (10 bullish, 43 neutral, 161 bearish)

P/E Ratio

7.4

This Stock

39.97

Sector Avg

-81.5% (Discount)

Return on Equity (ROE)

10.85%

This Stock

-27.06%

Sector Avg

-140.1% (Below Avg)

Profit Margin

83.76%

This Stock

10.56%

Sector Avg

+693.4% (Superior)

Debt to Equity

7.81

This Stock

2.42

Sector Avg

+221.9% (Higher)

Current Ratio

0.11

This Stock

8.25

Sector Avg

-98.7% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc.	BEARISH	$1.41B	7.4	10.9%	83.8%	$7.03
AAT American Assets Trust, Inc.	BEARISH	$1.39B	17.8	7.0%	14.1%	$17.98	Compare
FOR Forestar Group Inc.	BULLISH	$1.43B	8.57	9.7%	9.8%	$28.12	Compare
ARI Apollo Commercial Real...	BEARISH	$1.38B	11.4	7.4%	51.3%	$9.92	Compare
CBL CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.	NEUTRAL	$1.37B	10.22	39.7%	23.5%	$44.35	Compare

ORC Orchid Island...

BEARISH

Mkt Cap

$1.4B

P/E

7.4

ROE

10.9%

Price

$7.03

Compare with ORC

FOR Forestar Group Inc.

Compare with ORC

Compare with ORC

Compare with ORC

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date	Insider	Position	Transaction	Shares	Value
2026-03-26	HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	3,031	-
2026-03-26	CAULEY ROBERT E	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	3,694	-
2026-03-23	HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	93,184	-
2026-03-23	CAULEY ROBERT E	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	121,891	-
2025-12-26	HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV	Chief Financial Officer	Stock Award	3,031	-
2025-12-26	CAULEY ROBERT E	Chief Executive Officer	Stock Award	3,694	-

HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-26

3,031 shares

CAULEY ROBERT E

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-26

3,694 shares

HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-23

93,184 shares

CAULEY ROBERT E

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2026-03-23

121,891 shares

HAAS GEORGE HUNTER IV

Chief Financial Officer

Stock Award

2025-12-26

3,031 shares

CAULEY ROBERT E

Chief Executive Officer

Stock Award

2025-12-26

3,694 shares

Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A

FORM DEF 14A

2026-04-27

ORC filed a Definitive Proxy Statement on April 27, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters at the upcoming annual meeting.

10-Q

FORM 10-Q

2026-04-24

ORC filed its Form 10-Q on April 24, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial highlights or detailed risk factor disclosures.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-04-23

ORC Inc. filed an 8-K on April 23, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-04-16

ORC Inc. likely reported its first-quarter financial results for the period ending March 31, 2026.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-03-18

10-K

FORM 10-K

2026-02-20

ORC filed its annual 10-K on February 20, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial data or detailed risk factors to summarize.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-01-29

ORC Inc. likely filed this 8-K to report its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for the 2025 fiscal year.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-01-14

ORC Inc. filed a Form 8-K on January 14, 2026, likely to announce its year-end financial results or a material corporate update.

8-K

FORM 8-K

2026-01-07

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-12-10

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-11-12

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-10-27

10-Q

FORM 10-Q

2025-10-24

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-10-23

8-K

FORM 8-K

2025-10-15

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

HOLD

1 analysts

Compass Point

2025-12-15

init

Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning ORC from our newsroom.

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ORC

ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Recent Insider Trading

SEC Filings

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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