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OWL

BEARISH
$9.75 Live
Blue Owl Capital Inc. · NYSE
Target $12.83 (+31.6%)
$7.95 52W Range $21.08
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$15.26B
P/E
97.5
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
3.0%
Debt/Equity
0.64
Dividend yield
9.44%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
The deterministic health and value scores are severely distressed, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a current price ($9.75) that trades at a massive premium to both the Graham Number ($2.73) and Intrinsic Value ($2.95). While analysts maintain a 'buy' rating based on a low forward P/E of 9.63, the fundamental data reveals a critical sustainability crisis, most notably an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 855%. Recent earnings performance has collapsed, with Q/Q EPS growth plummeting by 91.7%, coinciding with a bearish technical trend and a 44.3% decline over the last year.

Key Strengths

Low Forward P/E (9.63) suggesting potential future earnings recovery
Very low PEG ratio (0.14) indicating growth is undervalued relative to price
Strong gross margins (58.18%)
Positive revenue growth (10.30% YoY)
Analyst consensus remains positive with a target price of $12.83

Key Risks

Extreme dividend instability with a payout ratio of 855%
Severe deterioration in financial health (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
Recent collapse in earnings growth (-91.7% Q/Q)
Significant overvaluation relative to defensive fair value (Graham Number)
Strong bearish technical momentum (0/100 trend score)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.25
-66.7% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
24
Weak
Value
20
Future
45
Past
30
Health
15
Dividend
10
AI Verdict
High Risk / Speculative
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score, Dividend Payout Ratio, Price vs Intrinsic Value Gap, Recent EPS Crash
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • Low Forward P/E
Watchpoints
  • Price is ~3.5x the Graham Number
  • Price is ~3.3x the Intrinsic Value
Future
45/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Positive YoY Revenue Growth
  • Low PEG ratio
Watchpoints
  • Recent Q/Q EPS growth of -91.7%
  • Negative earnings surprise trend
Past
30/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Long term 5Y change is positive
Watchpoints
  • 1Y return of -44.3%
  • 6M return of -36.4%
Health
15/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Debt/Equity (0.64) is lower than sector average (1.32)
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health
Dividend
10/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • High nominal yield (9.44%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 855% is mathematically unsustainable

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$9.75
Analyst Target
$12.83
Upside/Downside
+31.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OWL and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Primary
5Y
+18.1%
3Y
+0.0%
1Y
-44.3%
6M
-36.4%
1M
+6.8%
1W
+3.5%
AFR
Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-42.4%
3Y
+368.3%
1Y
-0.0%
6M
-43.6%
1M
-17.1%
1W
-9.3%
FNF
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+51.6%
3Y
+77.1%
1Y
-10.8%
6M
-3.0%
1M
+16.8%
1W
+5.3%
EWB
East West Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+82.3%
3Y
+136.6%
1Y
+60.2%
6M
+22.7%
1M
+15.0%
1W
+1.4%
IRE
IREN Limited
Peer
5Y
+89.7%
3Y
+1824.1%
1Y
+348.9%
6M
+451.4%
1M
-31.8%
1W
-25.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
97.5
Forward P/E
9.63
PEG Ratio
0.14
P/B Ratio
2.95
P/S Ratio
5.19
EV/Revenue
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$15.26B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 2.96%
Operating Margin 14.52%
Gross Margin 58.18%
ROE N/A
ROA N/A

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +10.3%
Earnings Growth +636.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +19.68%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +109.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.64
Moderate
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$N/A

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.8B
Gross Margin
58.5%
Op. Margin
22.1%
Net Margin
6.3%
Total Assets
$12.5B
Liabilities
$6.4B
Equity
$2.2B
Debt/Equity
2.91x
Operating CF
$0.4B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.4B
FCF Yield
94%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-29
$0.02
-88.5% surprise
2026-02-05
$0.24
+6.8% surprise
2025-10-30
$0.22
-0.6% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.21
+1.9% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing OWL against 975 companies in the Financial Services sector (156 bullish, 425 neutral, 394 bearish)
P/E Ratio
97.5
This Stock
vs
34.86
Sector Avg
+179.7% (Expensive)
Profit Margin
2.96%
This Stock
vs
88.25%
Sector Avg
-96.6% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.64
This Stock
vs
1.32
Sector Avg
-51.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
10.3%
This Stock
vs
33.02%
Sector Avg
-68.8% (Slower)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

OWL Blue Owl Capital Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$15.3B
P/E
97.5
ROE
-%
Price
$9.75
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$15.6B
P/E
57.9
ROE
8.9%
Price
$46.88
 Compare with OWL
FNF Fidelity...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$14.2B
P/E
23.7
ROE
7.8%
Price
$52.33
 Compare with OWL
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$16.4B
P/E
12.4
ROE
15.9%
Price
$119.09
 Compare with OWL
IREN IREN Limited
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$13.8B
P/E
26.6
ROE
26.1%
Price
$46.37
 Compare with OWL

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

BROUSE JENNIFER
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-09
146,617 shares
REDDY NEENA
General Counsel
Stock Award
2025-12-09
145,768 shares
POLLAND ANDREW ROBERT
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-09
192,790 shares
LIPSCHULTZ MARC S
Chief Executive Officer
Buy
2025-12-02
158,000 shares · $2,379,469
OSTROVER DOUGLAS I.
Chief Executive Officer
Buy
2025-12-02
158,000 shares · $2,379,469
PACKER CRAIG W
President
Buy
2025-12-02
125,000 shares · $1,882,492
KIRSHENBAUM ALAN
Chief Financial Officer
Buy
2025-12-01
33,670 shares · $500,808
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-30

OWL likely filed this 8-K to report its first-quarter financial results for the period ending March 31, 2026.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-17

OWL filed its definitive proxy statement on April 17, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2026-02-19

OWL submitted its annual 10-K filing on February 19, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial performance metrics or detailed risk factors.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-05

OWL filed an 8-K on February 5, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results for the preceding fiscal year.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-04
8-K
8-K
2025-12-02
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-03

OWL filed its 10-Q on November 3, 2025. The provided excerpts reference risk factors and business descriptions but do not contain specific financial highlights or detailed risk disclosures.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-30

OWL filed an 8-K on October 30, 2025, likely to report its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-08

OWL filed an 8-K on August 8, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-01

OWL submitted its 10-Q filing on August 1, 2025, which incorporates risk disclosures under Item 1A and refers to the Annual Report for business operations. Specific financial highlights and detailed risk factors were not provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-31
8-K
8-K
2025-06-09
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-05
8-K
8-K
2025-05-01
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-04-25
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
15 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-29
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Citizens
2026-04-22
Maintains
Market Outperform Market Outperform
Oppenheimer
2026-04-13
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Barclays
2026-04-08
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Goldman Sachs
2026-04-07
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Piper Sandler
2026-04-07
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
BMO Capital
2026-03-24
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
TD Cowen
2026-03-23
Maintains
Buy Buy
Citizens
2026-03-17
Maintains
Market Outperform Market Outperform
Oppenheimer
2026-03-04
Maintains
Outperform Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning OWL from our newsroom.

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