VLO Valero Energy Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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VLO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Energy
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Current Price
Live
$183.46
Analyst Target
$189.0
+3.0%
Upside
52W High
$192.0
52W Low
$99.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
Valero Energy (VLO) shows mixed financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating stable but not strong fundamentals. The absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment, though the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40 suggests moderate leverage. While earnings growth is exceptionally strong year-over-year (+221.1%) and the company consistently beats estimates, profitability margins and returns (ROE 5.24%, ROA 3.59%) lag behind sector averages. The stock trades at a significant premium to the Graham Number ($91.9) and has a high P/E of 38.06 versus sector average of 19.81, offset by a bullish analyst recommendation and solid dividend yield of 2.45%.
Key Strengths
Exceptional earnings growth: YoY EPS growth of +221.1% and Q/Q EPS growth of +60.5%
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of 45.23% over recent quarters
Moderate leverage: Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40 is below sector average of 0.56, indicating prudent capital structure
Attractive dividend yield: 2.45% yield exceeds many peers and provides income support
Strong price momentum: 1-year return of +35.8% and 5-year return of +263.6% reflect robust investor confidence
Key Risks
Weak profitability: Profit margin of 1.28% is far below sector average of 11.47%, signaling pricing or cost challenges
Low Piotroski F-Score: Score of 4/9 indicates borderline financial health with potential operational inefficiencies
High valuation multiples: P/E of 38.06 is nearly double the sector average (19.81), raising sustainability concerns
Elevated payout ratio: 92.72% dividend payout ratio leaves little room for earnings downturns
Bearish insider activity: CFO sold $1.73M in shares with no insider buys in last 6 months, suggesting lack of confidence
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$115.0
-37.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare VLO against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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Past News Coverage
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