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ALK vs FLY

ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
BEARISH
Price
$50.87
Market Cap
$5.9B
Sector
Industrials
AI Confidence
75%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
BEARISH
Price
$37.57
Market Cap
$6.01B
Sector
Industrials
AI Confidence
90%

Valuation

P/E Ratio
ALK
40.37
FLY
--
Forward P/E
ALK
6.0
FLY
-34.02
P/B Ratio
ALK
1.45
FLY
5.03
P/S Ratio
ALK
0.42
FLY
37.59
EV/EBITDA
ALK
7.38
FLY
-27.26

Profitability

Gross Margin
ALK
21.69%
FLY
19.18%
Operating Margin
ALK
5.66%
FLY
-98.2%
Profit Margin
ALK
1.06%
FLY
-208.92%
ROE
ALK
3.53%
FLY
-56.51%
ROA
ALK
1.89%
FLY
-12.44%

Growth

Revenue Growth
ALK
22.6%
FLY
538.4%
Earnings Growth
ALK
-66.3%
FLY
--

Financial Health

Debt/Equity
ALK
1.61
FLY
0.26
Current Ratio
ALK
0.52
FLY
4.51
Quick Ratio
ALK
0.43
FLY
4.4

Dividends

Dividend Yield
ALK
--
FLY
--
Payout Ratio
ALK
0.0%
FLY
0.0%

AI Verdict

ALK BEARISH

ALK's deterministic health signals are weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score, raising concerns about financial health transparency. Despite strong revenue growth of 22.6% and a low forward P/E of 6.00 suggesting potential recovery, the company faces severe profitability and earnings headwinds, with ROE at 3.53%, negative YoY earnings growth (-66.3%), and a very low profit margin of 1.06%. Insider selling, a bearish technical trend, and a current price ($50.87) significantly above the Graham Number ($31.48) further suggest overvaluation and lack of confidence from insiders. While analysts maintain a 'strong_buy' recommendation with a $70.87 target, the fundamental and cash flow weaknesses outweigh near-term optimism.

Strengths
Strong year-over-year revenue growth of 22.60% outpaces sector average (16.35%)
Forward P/E of 6.00 indicates low valuation expectations for future earnings recovery
Recent quarterly earnings surprises have been positive, including a +297.2% beat in Q1 2026
Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and limited operational strength
Negative earnings growth (YoY: -66.3%, Q/Q: -69.1%) raises sustainability concerns
Profit margin of 1.06% is far below sector average of 81.98%, indicating poor pricing or cost control
FLY BEARISH

The company exhibits critical financial instability, evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, indicating severe weakness in fundamental health. While revenue growth is explosive at 538.40% YoY, this is offset by a catastrophic profit margin of -208.92% and an unsustainable Price/Sales ratio of 37.59. Despite strong short-term liquidity (Current Ratio 4.51), the massive earnings misses and lack of a path to profitability suggest the current valuation is driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.

Strengths
Hyper-growth in revenue (538.40% YoY)
Strong short-term liquidity with a Current Ratio of 4.51
Low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.26
Risks
Extreme valuation (Price/Sales of 37.59 is well above industry norms)
Severe operational losses (Operating Margin -98.20%)
Poor earnings track record with an average surprise of -455.67%

Compare Another Pair

ALK vs FLY: Head-to-Head Comparison

This page compares Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) and Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) across key fundamental metrics including valuation ratios, profitability margins, growth rates, financial health indicators, and dividend metrics. Each metric highlights the better-performing stock so you can quickly identify relative strengths and weaknesses.

Our AI engine independently analyzes each company's financials, competitive position, and market conditions to produce a verdict (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) along with key strengths and risks. Use this comparison alongside your own research to make informed investment decisions.

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