FLY
BEARISH
$37.57
Live
Firefly Aerospace Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $37.14
(-1.1%)
$16.0
52W Range
$73.8
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 10, 2026
Market cap
$6.01B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-56.5%
Profit margin
-208.9%
Debt/Equity
0.26
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
90%
The company exhibits critical financial instability, evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, indicating severe weakness in fundamental health. While revenue growth is explosive at 538.40% YoY, this is offset by a catastrophic profit margin of -208.92% and an unsustainable Price/Sales ratio of 37.59. Despite strong short-term liquidity (Current Ratio 4.51), the massive earnings misses and lack of a path to profitability suggest the current valuation is driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Hyper-growth in revenue (538.40% YoY)
Strong short-term liquidity with a Current Ratio of 4.51
Low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.26
Positive gross margin (19.18%) indicating a viable core product
Recent short-term price momentum (+93.8% in 1 month)
Key Risks
Extreme valuation (Price/Sales of 37.59 is well above industry norms)
Severe operational losses (Operating Margin -98.20%)
Poor earnings track record with an average surprise of -455.67%
Negative ROE (-56.51%) and ROA (-12.44%)
High volatility and lack of historical price stability
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
21
Weak
10
60
20
15
0
AI Verdict
Speculative High-Risk
Key drivers: Extreme P/S ratio, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, Massive negative profit margins, Hyper-revenue growth
Confidence
95%
Value
10/100
No Graham Number available; valuation is purely growth-speculative.
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- P/S ratio of 37.59 is exorbitant
- Forward P/E is negative
- Price/Book of 5.03 is high for a non-profitable entity
Future
60/100
Growth is high, but quality of growth is low.
Positives
- Exceptional revenue growth (538%)
- Operating in high-growth Aerospace & Defense sector
Watchpoints
- Inability to translate revenue growth into earnings
- Consistent failure to meet EPS estimates
Past
20/100
Historical performance is characterized by volatility and fundamental misses.
Positives
- Recent 1-month recovery
Watchpoints
- 1-year return of -37.8%
- Severe earnings misses in 3 of the last 4 quarters
Health
15/100
Strong liquidity is the only saving grace in an otherwise failing health profile.
Positives
- Low Debt/Equity
- High Current/Quick ratios
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicates critical weakness
- Deeply negative ROE and ROA
Dividend
0/100
Company is in a heavy burn phase.
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid
- No history of payouts
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$37.57
Analyst Target
$37.14
Upside/Downside
-1.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FLY and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-09
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Primary
|
-37.8% | -37.8% | -37.8% | +25.0% | +93.8% | +14.1% |
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Peer
|
-3.8% | +2.3% | -26.1% | -2.5% | -1.0% | +1.7% |
|
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
Peer
|
+87.6% | +105.3% | +13.3% | +24.7% | +2.4% | -1.5% |
|
EQPT
EquipmentShare.com Inc.
Peer
|
-37.0% | -37.0% | -37.0% | -37.0% | -26.8% | -1.2% |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
+32.2% | +2.7% | -17.5% | -6.6% | -10.4% | +8.2% |
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Primary
5Y
-37.8%
3Y
-37.8%
1Y
-37.8%
6M
+25.0%
1M
+93.8%
1W
+14.1%
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-3.8%
3Y
+2.3%
1Y
-26.1%
6M
-2.5%
1M
-1.0%
1W
+1.7%
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+87.6%
3Y
+105.3%
1Y
+13.3%
6M
+24.7%
1M
+2.4%
1W
-1.5%
EQP
EquipmentShare.com Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.0%
3Y
-37.0%
1Y
-37.0%
6M
-37.0%
1M
-26.8%
1W
-1.2%
CWS
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+32.2%
3Y
+2.7%
1Y
-17.5%
6M
-6.6%
1M
-10.4%
1W
+8.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
-34.02
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.03
P/S Ratio
37.59
EV/Revenue
33.94
EV/EBITDA
-27.26
Market Cap
$6.01B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-208.92%
Operating Margin
-98.2%
Gross Margin
19.18%
ROE
-56.51%
ROA
-12.44%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+538.4%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+538.4%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.26
Low debt
Current Ratio
4.51
Strong
Quick Ratio
4.4
Excellent
Cash/Share
$5.58
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
27.7%
Op. Margin
-148.4%
Net Margin
-71.2%
Total Assets
$1.8B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$1.2B
Debt/Equity
0.53x
Operating CF
$-0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.1B
FCF Yield
118%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-12
$N/A
2026-03-19
$-0.38
+22.2% surprise
2025-11-12
$-1.5
-250.5% surprise
2025-09-22
$-5.66
-1138.7% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing FLY against 180 companies in the Industrials sector
(15 bullish, 78 neutral, 87 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-56.51%
This Stock
vs
0.44%
Sector Avg
-12840.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-208.92%
This Stock
vs
32.32%
Sector Avg
-746.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.26
This Stock
vs
4.3
Sector Avg
-94.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
538.4%
This Stock
vs
32.15%
Sector Avg
+1574.7%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
4.51
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
+41.8%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.01B | - | -56.5% | -208.9% | $37.57 | |
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.9B | 40.37 | 3.5% | 1.1% | $50.87 | Compare |
|
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.57B | 38.61 | 5.9% | 5.2% | $113.5 | Compare |
|
EQPT
EquipmentShare.com Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.45B | 2050.0 | 0.3% | 0.1% | $20.5 | Compare |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.45B | 715.25 | 0.5% | 0.4% | $85.83 | Compare |
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$6.0B
P/E
-
ROE
-56.5%
Price
$37.57
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | KIM JESUNG | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 52,836 | - |
| 2026-03-10 | MA DARREN | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 27,397 | - |
| 2026-03-10 | WHEELER DAVID LEIGH | General Counsel | Stock Award | 25,044 | - |
| 2026-03-10 | FERRING RUSSELL SHEA | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 15,756 | - |
| 2026-03-10 | SANCHEZ RAMON GILBERT | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 18,493 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | MCALLISTER KEVIN G. | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | KONERT KIRK MICHAEL | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | EMERSON CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER IV | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | ZURBUCHEN THOMAS HANSUELI | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | WEISER MARC ALLEN | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | LUSCZAKOSKI JONATHAN DONALD | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | BOLAND RYAN MICHAEL | Director | Stock Award | 3,334 | - |
| 2025-12-22 | SANCHEZ RAMON GILBERT | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 100,000 | - |
KIM JESUNG
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-19
52,836 shares
MA DARREN
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-10
27,397 shares
WHEELER DAVID LEIGH
General Counsel
2026-03-10
25,044 shares
FERRING RUSSELL SHEA
Chief Technology Officer
2026-03-10
15,756 shares
SANCHEZ RAMON GILBERT
Chief Operating Officer
2026-03-10
18,493 shares
MCALLISTER KEVIN G.
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
KONERT KIRK MICHAEL
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
EMERSON CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER IV
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
ZURBUCHEN THOMAS HANSUELI
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
WEISER MARC ALLEN
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
LUSCZAKOSKI JONATHAN DONALD
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
BOLAND RYAN MICHAEL
Director
2026-02-25
3,334 shares
SANCHEZ RAMON GILBERT
Chief Operating Officer
2025-12-22
100,000 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
7 analysts
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-03-26
Overweight
Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2026-01-20
Neutral
Neutral
Keybanc
2025-12-19
Sector Weight
JP Morgan
2025-11-25
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-17
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Roth Capital
2025-11-13
Buy
Buy
Deutsche Bank
2025-11-13
Hold
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning FLY from our newsroom.
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