ALK Alaska Air Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
Sign in to save
Save this symbol to a watchlist or track a position.
ALK Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Airlines
Current Price
Live
$50.87
Analyst Target
$70.87
+39.3%
Upside
52W High
$78.08
52W Low
$37.63
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$5.9B
P/E
40.37
ROE
3.5%
Profit margin
1.1%
Debt/Equity
1.61
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
75%
Analysis Accuracy
ALK's deterministic health signals are weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score, raising concerns about financial health transparency. Despite strong revenue growth of 22.6% and a low forward P/E of 6.00 suggesting potential recovery, the company faces severe profitability and earnings headwinds, with ROE at 3.53%, negative YoY earnings growth (-66.3%), and a very low profit margin of 1.06%. Insider selling, a bearish technical trend, and a current price ($50.87) significantly above the Graham Number ($31.48) further suggest overvaluation and lack of confidence from insiders. While analysts maintain a 'strong_buy' recommendation with a $70.87 target, the fundamental and cash flow weaknesses outweigh near-term optimism.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year revenue growth of 22.60% outpaces sector average (16.35%)
Forward P/E of 6.00 indicates low valuation expectations for future earnings recovery
Recent quarterly earnings surprises have been positive, including a +297.2% beat in Q1 2026
Analyst consensus is strongly bullish with a $70.87 target price, implying ~39% upside
Outperforms peers like ADT and ACA in revenue growth and maintains competitive ROE relative to sector
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and limited operational strength
Negative earnings growth (YoY: -66.3%, Q/Q: -69.1%) raises sustainability concerns
Profit margin of 1.06% is far below sector average of 81.98%, indicating poor pricing or cost control
Current ratio (0.52) and quick ratio (0.43) signal severe short-term liquidity risk
Insider selling by CFO and General Counsel suggests lack of confidence in near-term prospects
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$31.48
-38.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
31
Weak
30
45
40
32
10
AI Verdict
Financially fragile with speculative recovery expectations
Key drivers: Low Piotroski score, Negative earnings growth, High insider selling, Strong revenue growth, Low forward P/E
Confidence
78%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 6.00 is below sector average and historical norms
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 40.37 is extremely high relative to earnings performance
- Price/Sales of 0.42 may be misleading due to low profitability
- Stock trades at 61% premium to Graham Number ($31.48 vs $50.87)
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 22.60% YoY indicates demand strength
- Analyst target implies strong future earnings rebound
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is deeply negative (-66.3% YoY)
- Q/Q earnings decline of -69.1% shows accelerating deterioration
- PEG ratio unavailable due to unstable earnings
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- History of beating earnings estimates, especially in volatile quarters
- Cyclical recovery visible post-2020 pandemic lows
Watchpoints
- Only 1 earnings beat in the last 4 quarters
- Earnings volatility remains extreme, with large swings between profit and loss
- Long-term 5Y price return of -3.8% underperforms sector
Health
32/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 1.61 is within sector range (avg 1.54)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current ratio (0.52) and quick ratio (0.43) are critically low
- No Altman Z-Score available, increasing uncertainty
- ROE (3.53%) and ROA (1.89%) are well below sector averages
Dividend
10/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
- Payout ratio is 0.00%, indicating no return to shareholders
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$50.87
Analyst Target
$70.87
Upside/Downside
+39.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ALK and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
Primary
|
-3.8% | +2.3% | -26.1% | -2.5% | -1.0% | +1.7% |
|
BETA
BETA Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
-30.1% | -30.1% | -30.1% | -30.1% | -16.5% | -9.6% |
|
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
Peer
|
+87.6% | +105.3% | +13.3% | +24.7% | +2.4% | -1.5% |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
Peer
|
+84.7% | +107.8% | +37.4% | +37.4% | +5.2% | -0.2% |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
Peer
|
+1.2% | +0.3% | +11.5% | -3.6% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
40.37
Forward P/E
6.0
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.45
P/S Ratio
0.42
EV/Revenue
0.7
EV/EBITDA
7.38
Market Cap
$5.9B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
1.06%
Operating Margin
5.66%
Gross Margin
21.69%
ROE
3.53%
ROA
1.89%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+22.6%
Earnings Growth
-66.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-69.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.61
High debt
Current Ratio
0.52
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.43
Poor
Cash/Share
$19.59
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-22
$N/A
2026-01-22
$0.43
+297.2% surprise
2025-10-23
$1.05
-4.7% surprise
2025-07-23
$1.42
-11.2% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing ALK against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
40.37
This Stock
vs
73.49
Sector Avg
-45.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.53%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
-55.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
1.06%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-98.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.61
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-70.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
22.6%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-0.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.52
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
-80.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.9B | 40.37 | 3.5% | 1.1% | $50.87 | |
|
BETA
BETA Technologies, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.97B | - | -% | -% | $25.15 | |
|
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.57B | 38.61 | 5.9% | 5.2% | $113.5 | |
|
BCO
The Brink's Company
|
NEUTRAL | $5.23B | 31.92 | 44.4% | 3.3% | $125.45 | |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.59B | 11.31 | 17.2% | 12.5% | $8.03 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | MINICUCCI BENITO | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 3,942 | - |
| 2025-10-31 | HALVERSON EMILY | Officer and Treasurer | Stock Award | 970 | - |
| 2025-10-31 | LEVINE KYLE B | Officer | Stock Award | 4,857 | - |
| 2025-09-23 | BERRY JASON M | Officer | Stock Award | 2,010 | - |
| 2025-08-18 | LEVINE KYLE B | General Counsel | Sale | 5,914 | $341,534 |
| 2025-08-13 | TACKETT SHANE R | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 5,000 | $285,315 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
15 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-12
Overweight
Overweight
Susquehanna
2026-01-09
Positive
Positive
Citigroup
2026-01-07
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2026-01-06
Buy
Buy
Citigroup
2025-12-04
Buy
TD Cowen
2025-11-03
Buy
Buy
Raymond James
2025-10-27
Outperform
Outperform
UBS
2025-10-27
Buy
Buy
Susquehanna
2025-10-03
Positive
Positive
Raymond James
2025-10-01
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ALK from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.