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AMBP vs HOG

AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
BEARISH
Price
$4.41
Market Cap
$2.64B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
AI Confidence
65%
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
BEARISH
Price
$22.97
Market Cap
$2.57B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
AI Confidence
85%

Valuation

P/E Ratio
AMBP
--
HOG
8.26
Forward P/E
AMBP
18.11
HOG
13.87
P/B Ratio
AMBP
-7.71
HOG
0.82
P/S Ratio
AMBP
0.49
HOG
0.57
EV/EBITDA
AMBP
9.62
HOG
6.97

Profitability

Gross Margin
AMBP
12.06%
HOG
29.84%
Operating Margin
AMBP
6.16%
HOG
-69.64%
Profit Margin
AMBP
0.3%
HOG
7.57%
ROE
AMBP
--
HOG
10.42%
ROA
AMBP
2.53%
HOG
2.81%

Growth

Revenue Growth
AMBP
8.8%
HOG
-27.8%
Earnings Growth
AMBP
75.0%
HOG
--

Financial Health

Debt/Equity
AMBP
--
HOG
0.97
Current Ratio
AMBP
1.09
HOG
2.1
Quick Ratio
AMBP
0.77
HOG
1.72

Dividends

Dividend Yield
AMBP
9.07%
HOG
3.17%
Payout Ratio
AMBP
500.0%
HOG
25.9%

AI Verdict

AMBP BEARISH

The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, indicating significant operational and profitability concerns. Despite strong recent earnings growth and a high dividend yield, the negative Price/Book ratio, extremely high payout ratio of 500%, and deteriorating quarterly EPS trend raise serious sustainability questions. Technical indicators are deeply bearish, and insider sentiment is weak, further undermining confidence. While valuation multiples appear low relative to peers, the lack of reliable balance sheet data and inconsistent earnings performance suggest substantial hidden risks.

Strengths
High dividend yield of 9.07% offers attractive income potential
Revenue growth of 8.80% YoY outpaces sector average of 7.45%
Recent earnings surprises have been strongly positive over the last four quarters (avg +86.18%)
Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress and weak fundamentals
Dividend payout ratio of 500% is unsustainable and likely to be cut or eliminated
Price/Book ratio of -7.71 implies negative book value, signaling potential insolvency risk
HOG BEARISH

HOG presents a classic value trap scenario, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 but severely deteriorating fundamentals. While the stock appears cheap on a P/E (8.26) and Price/Book (0.82) basis, this is offset by a catastrophic revenue decline of -27.8% and a negative operating margin of -69.64%. The divergence between the Graham Number ($41.94) and the growth-based Intrinsic Value ($19.46) highlights that the company's asset value is not being translated into growth. With a technical trend of 0/100 and bearish insider activity, the outlook remains negative.

Strengths
Low P/E ratio (8.26) relative to sector average
Trading below book value (P/B 0.82)
Strong short-term liquidity with a Current Ratio of 2.10
Risks
Severe revenue contraction (-27.8% YoY)
Extreme operating margin deficit (-69.64%)
Very high PEG ratio (5.23) indicating poor growth relative to valuation

Compare Another Pair

AMBP vs HOG: Head-to-Head Comparison

This page compares Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) and Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) across key fundamental metrics including valuation ratios, profitability margins, growth rates, financial health indicators, and dividend metrics. Each metric highlights the better-performing stock so you can quickly identify relative strengths and weaknesses.

Our AI engine independently analyzes each company's financials, competitive position, and market conditions to produce a verdict (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish) along with key strengths and risks. Use this comparison alongside your own research to make informed investment decisions.

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